{"id":575860,"date":"2020-11-02T03:55:41","date_gmt":"2020-11-02T03:55:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/02\/what-were-tracking-on-2-november-2020\/"},"modified":"2020-11-02T03:55:41","modified_gmt":"2020-11-02T03:55:41","slug":"what-were-tracking-on-2-november-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/02\/what-were-tracking-on-2-november-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"What we\u2019re tracking on 2 November 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning, friends. It\u2019s one of those \u201cin between\u201d days in which most folks\u2019 thoughts <\/strong>will naturally gravitate across the Atlantic<\/strong> as voters in the United States prepare to head to the polls tomorrow to decide whether Agent Orange gets another four years in office.<\/p>\n

<\/a> What are the pre-election day polls telling us?<\/strong> Joe Biden has a huge 10-point lead in the latest Wall Street Journal\/NBC News nationwide poll<\/a>, which puts him at 52% to Trump\u2019s 42%. The former vice president also has a lead in four of the most crucial swing states, according to a New York Times\/Siena College poll<\/a>, which has him at +3% in Florida, +6% in Arizona and Pennsylvania and +11% in Trump\u2019s former heartland of Wisconsin.<\/p>\n

Pennsylvania may well be the key to the White House:<\/strong> With more electoral college votes than any other battleground state except Florida, both campaigns are piling resources into a last-ditch effort to swing the state in their favor, the New York Times<\/a> says. While Bidenfocuses his energy on the Keystone State<\/a>, Trump is on a two-day campaign blitz<\/a>, holding over 10 rallies across seven states.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a good chance we\u2019re not going to know who won on election night.<\/strong> The surge in the use of mail-in ballots will mean the vote count takes longer than usual and it could be several days before a final result is announced. FiveThirtyEight<\/a> has a useful breakdown of when we might see results from each state. The key to watch: When will CNN and the Associated Press call individual states.<\/p>\n

Mail-in ballots may also lead to The Donald incorrectly declaring himself the winner <\/strong>on election night.<\/strong> One scenario now being touted by some observes suggests that it could appear Trump has triumphed after in-person votes are counted in the hours after the polls close, but as one data analytics company has suggested<\/a>, the result could shift later in the week as mail-in ballots (which are used more by Democratic voters) are added to the tally.<\/p>\n

Trump has already telegraphed a post-election legal battle<\/strong>, saying yesterday<\/a> that he intends to take legal action to prevent ballots from being counted after election day.<\/p>\n

Emerging-market investors are bracing for impact:<\/strong> The potential for a contested election is focusing the minds of emerging-market investors, many of whom had priced in a huge Democratic victory and a swift stimulus package, Bloomberg<\/a> reports. EM stocks, bonds and currencies experienced their worst week in over a month last week and an equity volatility gauge spiked to its highest levels since June as concerns over the US election and rising covid cases caused a sell-off in Western markets.<\/p>\n

Add oil prices to the list of things Gulf equities have to worry about:<\/strong> Stock markets in the Gulf slid yesterday as new restrictions in Europe and rising covid cases in the US heightened fears of a renewed slump in demand for oil, Reuters<\/a> says. Kuwait saw the biggest losses, falling 2.1% during trading, while the Dubai bourse slid 1.6% and the Saudi and Abu Dhabi indexes both losing 0.5%.<\/p>\n

The EGX also finished in the red yesterday<\/strong>, falling 0.6% during the session to leave the index down 25.1% year-to-date. Trading was 19% below the trailing 90-day average, with some EGP 911 mn worth of shares changing hands.<\/p>\n

Asian shares were mixed at dispatch time this morning<\/strong> while US and European futures were pointing to a slight bounce from last week\u2019s sell-off after Wall Street turned in its worst week since March.<\/p>\n

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The House is in recess once more so MPs can hit the campaign trail. <\/strong>The next House plenary session will be called to order on 15 December with the same faces reconvening for what should be the last time. Speaker Ali Abdel Aal made the announcement<\/a> yesterday. Our elected representatives passed a flurry of bills yesterday before punching out to go kiss babies. We have a recap in this morning\u2019s Speed Round, below.<\/p>\n

Voters in Cairo, Sinai and 10 other governorates go to the polls starting this coming <\/strong>Wednesday. <\/strong>Expats registered to vote in those governorates cast ballots starting Wednesday, while voters resident in Egypt will hit the voting booths Saturday and Sunday.<\/p>\n

Not sure where to vote?<\/strong> The National Election Commission has got you covered<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The new class of MPs elected in the polls that began late last month won\u2019t be seated until <\/strong>at least 10 January 2021<\/strong>, as the current group of MPs are legally our representatives until 9 January.<\/p>\n

First phase election results dominated the airwaves last night<\/strong>, as we report in Last Night\u2019s Talk Shows, also below.<\/p>\n

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News triggers coming up in the next two weeks:<\/strong><\/p>\n