{"id":575824,"date":"2020-10-28T04:04:27","date_gmt":"2020-10-28T04:04:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/28\/egypts-economy-to-grow-by-3-3-in-fy2020-21-reuters-poll\/"},"modified":"2020-10-28T04:04:27","modified_gmt":"2020-10-28T04:04:27","slug":"egypts-economy-to-grow-by-3-3-in-fy2020-21-reuters-poll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/28\/egypts-economy-to-grow-by-3-3-in-fy2020-21-reuters-poll\/","title":{"rendered":"Egypt\u2019s economy to grow by 3.3% in FY2020-21 -Reuters poll"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-01\"><\/a> <strong>Eg<\/strong><strong>ypt\u2019s economy will grow at a 3.3% clip during the current fiscal year<\/strong>, according to a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/idUSL4N2HH3KF\">Reuters poll<\/a> of economists. This is a slight upwards revision from the 3.1% growth economists had penciled in for FY2020-2021 <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/08a1f691-10f9-404b-86ff-d972aa0bb415\">in a similar poll in July<\/a>. The economists\u2019 forecast is more optimistic than the <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/47662d59-b64d-4577-9b8e-f9089185e17a\">Planning Ministry\u2019s projection in May<\/a> that we would only see 2% growth if the pandemic continues into December \u2014 but more or less matches expectations from the <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/307c82aa-8655-4348-9cdd-bc0c68450f60\">IMF<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2020\/10\/20\/egypts-economy-is-on-track-to-finish-the-year-having-grown-3-5-23537\/\">Fitch<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/3862b982-c1f2-4b9d-8edd-cca7a37d9d71\">Deutsche Bank<\/a>. The figure falls below the Finance Ministry\u2019s forecast, which said in June it sees GDP growth for FY2020-2021 <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/abebb78b-cad6-4311-a2f0-5a4113f1ee64\">coming in at 5%<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Chalk up the muted growth to a tourism downturn:<\/strong> HC Securities\u2019 assumption for the current fiscal year is based on its expectation that tourism revenue will plunge 50% y-o-y, driving down employment levels and potentially also leading to \u201cmuted real growth in household consumption,\u201d HC\u2019s head of macro and financials Monette Doss tells the newswire.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Growth is expected to accelerate over the next two fiscal years<\/strong>, the Reuters poll indicated. Economists expect the economy to expand 5% in FY2021-2022 and 5.5% in FY2022-2023.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Inflation to spike in coming years... <\/strong>Annual urban consumer price inflation will slow to 5.8% in FY2020-21 before rising to 7% in each of FY2021-22 and FY2022-23, according to the economists. Annual inflation came in at 3.7% in September and 3.4% in August, close to its lowest levels in 14 years, the report notes. \u201cWe expect inflation to trend higher over the medium term as the exchange rate weakens and global commodity prices tick higher amid a recovery in global demand,\u201d said Callee Davis, an economist at NKC African Economics.<\/p>\n<p><strong>...and the EGP will weaken against the USD: <\/strong>The currency will weaken to EGP 15.8 against the USD by the end of the year from its current rate of about 15.65, the economists predicted. According to the economists, the exchange rate could be at EGP 16.5 \/ USD by December 2021 and EGP 17 \/ USD 1 by December 2022. The economists predicted that the central bank\u2019s overnight lending rate would slide to 9.25% by the end of June 2021, from the current 9.75%, then again to 8.5% by June 2022 and 8% by June 2023.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Growth in other major African economies, meanwhile, is seen as subdued and mixed<\/strong>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-africa-economy-poll\/uneven-recovery-prospects-for-africas-major-economies-reuters-poll-idUSKBN27C1ZB?il=0\">a separate Reuters poll<\/a> showed. The continent\u2019s two largest economies, Nigeria and South Africa, are expected to eke out positive rates of 2% and 3.5% in 2021 after taking a beating this year and shrinking 4% and 8.5%, according to the poll. This is \u201cpartly because many African countries\u2019 fiscal positions will be a constraint on growth,\u201d Jacques Nel, head of macroeconomic research at NKC African economics said. \u201cMost of the fastest-growing countries will be in East Africa\u201d as the region is one of the most diversified, Nel said.<\/p>\n<p><strong>As for the MENA region, economies are seeing a disproportionate amount of economic pain because of s<\/strong><strong>tructural issues <\/strong><strong>that long pre-date covid-19<\/strong>, AUC\u2019s Amr Adly argues in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/opinion\/articles\/2020-10-27\/what-ails-arab-economies-is-older-than-covid-19?sref=mmeFTDW1\">Bloomberg Opinion<\/a>. Weaknesses in MENA economies mean the impact of covid-19 on the US and EU has hit us hard in terms of trade, investment and reduced fuel exports, while a lack of intra-regional trade integration has stopped us tapping into the purchasing power on our doorsteps, he says. The IMF is predicting MENA economies to shrink 5.4% in FY2020-2021 \u2014 a level of contraction that seems unaligned with the scale of the public health crisis in the region. The average number of covid-19 deaths in MENA stands at 79.46 per mn \u2014 lower in the most populous nations, including Egypt, at 62.21 per mn \u2014 compared to 673.80, 360.45 and 661.29 in the US, EU and South America.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Egypt\u2019s economy will grow at a 3.3% clip during the current fiscal year, according to a Reuters poll of economists. This is a slight upwards revision from the 3.1% growth economists had penciled in for FY2020-2021 in a similar poll in July. The economists\u2019 forecast is more optimistic than the Planning Ministry\u2019s projection in May [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":575825,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[72,276,348,8808,272,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-575824","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-enterpriseam","tag-finance-ministry","tag-gdp","tag-growth-forecast","tag-imf","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"30c511ed-d416-456f-860b-1cfa0e51baab","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/290.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[575819],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Egypt\u2019s economy to grow by 3.3% in FY2020-21 -Reuters poll - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/28\/egypts-economy-to-grow-by-3-3-in-fy2020-21-reuters-poll\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Egypt\u2019s economy to grow by 3.3% in FY2020-21 -Reuters poll\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Egypt\u2019s economy will grow at a 3.3% clip during the current fiscal year, according to a Reuters poll of economists. This is a slight upwards revision from the 3.1% growth economists had penciled in for FY2020-2021 in a similar poll in July. The economists\u2019 forecast is more optimistic than the Planning Ministry\u2019s projection in May [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/28\/egypts-economy-to-grow-by-3-3-in-fy2020-21-reuters-poll\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EnterpriseAM Egypt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-10-28T04:04:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/290.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/28\/egypts-economy-to-grow-by-3-3-in-fy2020-21-reuters-poll\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/28\/egypts-economy-to-grow-by-3-3-in-fy2020-21-reuters-poll\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"enterpriseam admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d\"},\"headline\":\"Egypt\u2019s economy to grow by 3.3% in FY2020-21 -Reuters poll\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-10-28T04:04:27+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/28\/egypts-economy-to-grow-by-3-3-in-fy2020-21-reuters-poll\/\"},\"wordCount\":606,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/28\/egypts-economy-to-grow-by-3-3-in-fy2020-21-reuters-poll\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/290.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\",\"keywords\":[\"EnterpriseAM\",\"Finance Ministry\",\"GDP\",\"growth forecast\",\"IMF\",\"SPEED ROUND\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Speed Round\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/28\/egypts-economy-to-grow-by-3-3-in-fy2020-21-reuters-poll\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/28\/egypts-economy-to-grow-by-3-3-in-fy2020-21-reuters-poll\/\",\"name\":\"Egypt\u2019s economy to grow by 3.3% in FY2020-21 -Reuters poll - 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The range is higher than the outlook offered by Finance Minister Mohamed Maait earlier this month,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/11\/223.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":559609,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/27\/egypts-gdp-to-grow-2-8-this-fy-imf-is-out-with-a-more-optimistic-global-forecast\/","url_meta":{"origin":575824,"position":1},"title":"Egypt\u2019s GDP to grow 2.8% this FY + IMF is out with a more optimistic global forecast","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 January 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economy will grow at a 2.8% clip in FY2020-2021, according to a Reuterspoll of economists. This is a downwards revision from the 3.3% growth economists predicted in the last poll the newswire conducted in October. The forecast sits at the lower end of the Finance Ministry\u2019s most recent GDP\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/1\/343.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567503,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/26\/egypts-economy-to-grow-at-5-8-in-fy-2019-20-poll\/","url_meta":{"origin":575824,"position":2},"title":"Egypt\u2019s economy to grow at 5.8% in FY 2019-20 -poll","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 January 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economic growth will accelerate to 5.8% in the current fiscal year, up from 5.6% in FY2018-2019, a Reuters poll finds. This prediction is in line with the Finance Ministry\u2019s recently-update growth expectations of 5.8-5.9%. The 20 economists polled by the newswire see the economy growing at 5.9% in the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/689.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":543898,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/02\/23\/govt-again-ups-2021-2022-growth-forecast\/","url_meta":{"origin":575824,"position":3},"title":"Gov\u2019t again ups 2021-2022 growth forecast","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"23 February 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economy is expected to grow 6.2-6.5% in FY2021-2022, marking an upwards revision from the previously expected 6%, Planning Minister Hala El Said said yesterday, according to a statement. The economy grew 3.3% during FY2020-2021, according to official figures.The upwards revision comes after 2Q2021-2022 growth exceeded expectations to record 8.3%,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/2\/332.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":573171,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/07\/22\/analysts-see-egyptian-economy-growing-at-a-3-1-clip-in-the-2020-2021-fiscal-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":575824,"position":4},"title":"Analysts see Egyptian economy growing at a 3.1% clip in the 2020-2021 fiscal year","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 July 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Analysts see Egypt\u2019s economy growing at a 3.1% clip in FY2020-2021, according to a Reuters poll, down from 3.5% in a similar survey the newswire carried in April. Economists have revised downwards their growth expectations as the economic fallout from the pandemic \u2014 including the drop in tourism, remittance inflows,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/7\/183.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594266,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/24\/egypts-economic-growth-to-slow-slightly-to-5-5-in-fy2019-2020-poll\/","url_meta":{"origin":575824,"position":5},"title":"Egypt\u2019s economic growth to slow slightly to 5.5% in FY2019-2020 -poll","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economic growth to slow slightly to 5.5% in FY2019-2020 -poll: Egypt\u2019s economic growth will slow to 5.5% in the current FY2019-2020 fiscal year, down from 5.6% last year and below the government\u2019s target of 6% growth in FY2019-2020 and overall target range of 6-7%, according to a Reuters poll\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/10\/1741.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/575824","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=575824"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/575824\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/575819"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/575825"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=575824"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=575824"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=575824"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=575824"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=575824"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}