{"id":575450,"date":"2020-10-15T04:18:09","date_gmt":"2020-10-15T04:18:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/15\/govt-finances-to-see-swift-recovery-from-covid-hit-imf\/"},"modified":"2020-10-15T04:18:09","modified_gmt":"2020-10-15T04:18:09","slug":"govt-finances-to-see-swift-recovery-from-covid-hit-imf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/15\/govt-finances-to-see-swift-recovery-from-covid-hit-imf\/","title":{"rendered":"Gov\u2019t finances to see swift recovery from covid hit -IMF"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> The impact of covid-19 on the Egyptian government\u2019s finances may not be as drastic as<\/strong> previously feared<\/strong>, according to the IMF\u2019s October 2020 Fiscal Monitor Report (pdf).<\/a> Though fiscal indicators have weakened slightly from the last outlook in April (pdf)<\/a>, the fund is now predicting a rapid recovery over the coming five years<\/strong>, with the budget deficit narrowing significantly from 2022 onwards.<\/p>\n

The hit to the deficit will be limited:<\/strong> After shrinking to 7.5% of GDP in FY2019-2020, the IMF sees Egypt\u2019s budget deficit widening to 8.1% this fiscal year before narrowing significantly to 5.2% in FY2021-2022. The deficit will then continue to gradually decline to reach 3.8% by FY2024-2025. The IMF attributes this to a comparatively muted fiscal response to the pandemic, caused by an already large debt pile exceeding 35% of GDP.<\/p>\n

The report sees our primary balance just about remaining in a surplus this fiscal year<\/strong>, shrinking to 0.4% from 1.4% in FY2019-2020. This will then pick up, reaching 2.1% in FY2021-2022 until the middle of the decade. Egypt has so far achieved a small primary surplus of EGP 100 mn in 1Q2020-2021 despite ballooning spending needs due to the pandemic, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said in yesterday\u2019s cabinet weekly meeting<\/a>.<\/p>\n

On the flipside, projections for the current fiscal year seem to have worsened slightly<\/strong> since April, when the IMF predicted a budget deficit of 6.6% and a 1% primary surplus.<\/p>\n

The government looks to reel in more revenues:<\/strong> The fund sees revenues inching up this fiscal year to 20% from 19.2% last fiscal year, then continue a slow but steady rebound through FY2024-2025. Revenues are being cushioned by the government\u2019s 1% tax on salaries, and a significant increase in borrowing, which has seen it receive USD 8 bn from the IMF<\/a>, a USD 2 bn loan<\/a> from foreign banks, while also generating revenue through a USD 5 bn eurobond issuance<\/a> in May.<\/p>\n

The IMF expects Egypt to tighten its purse strings as of the next fiscal year<\/strong>, when spending is projected to dip to 25.4% of GDP from 28.1% in the current fiscal year.<\/p>\n

Yesterday\u2019s report came on the heels of the IMF\u2019s <\/strong>World Economic Outlook<\/a><\/strong>. <\/strong>Amid an overarching tone of uncertainty, Egypt came out of the report relatively unscathed, with the fund upgrading its 2020 GDP forecast to 3.5% from the 2% in June. On the other hand, the IMF expects the country\u2019s account deficit to widen to 4.2% of GDP in 2021 from 3.2% this year, and listed Egypt among several countries that are particularly vulnerable to a decline in remittance flows.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The impact of covid-19 on the Egyptian government\u2019s finances may not be as drastic as previously feared, according to the IMF\u2019s October 2020 Fiscal Monitor Report (pdf). Though fiscal indicators have weakened slightly from the last outlook in April (pdf), the fund is now predicting a rapid recovery over the coming five years, with the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":575451,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[72,1318,272,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-575450","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-enterpriseam","tag-fiscal-policy","tag-imf","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"fe09d867-dea8-4f57-9725-da9e7b6b0ecb","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/164.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[575445],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nGov\u2019t finances to see swift recovery from covid hit -IMF - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/15\/govt-finances-to-see-swift-recovery-from-covid-hit-imf\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gov\u2019t finances to see swift recovery from covid hit -IMF\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The impact of covid-19 on the Egyptian government\u2019s finances may not be as drastic as previously feared, according to the IMF\u2019s October 2020 Fiscal Monitor Report (pdf). 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This is 0.5 percentage points higher than the IMF\u2019s previous forecast for FY 2021-2022, which penciled in a 6.3% deficit. 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Figures in the Fund\u2019s latest Fiscal Monitor Report (pdf) suggest that the outlook for Egypt\u2019s fiscal position has improved over the past\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/4\/78.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":556183,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/14\/egypts-budget-deficit-is-expected-to-narrow-to-6-3-of-gdp-imf\/","url_meta":{"origin":575450,"position":3},"title":"Egypt\u2019s budget deficit is expected to narrow to 6.3% of GDP \u2013IMF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s budget deficit is still expected to narrow by the end of the current fiscal year, but will shrink at a slower pace over the next several years than previously expected, the IMF said in its latest Fiscal Monitor Report (pdf). The IMF now sees the budget deficit narrowing to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/157.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":582148,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/03\/02\/govt-to-miss-deficit-debt-targets-on-higher-rates-import-bill\/","url_meta":{"origin":575450,"position":4},"title":"Gov\u2019t to miss deficit, debt targets on higher rates, import bill","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 March 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt is now predicting a debt level of 93.0% of GDP by June 2023","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/Finance-Ministry-1600.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":593361,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/26\/fitch-affirms-egypts-long-term-fx-issuer-default-rating-at-b-with-a-stable-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":575450,"position":5},"title":"Fitch affirms Egypt\u2019s long-term FX issuer default rating at B+ with a stable outlook","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch Ratings has affirmed Egypt\u2019s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at \u2018B+\u2019 with a \u2018stable\u2019 outlook. The agency said that Egypt\u2019s rating affirmation is supported by \u201ca recent track record of economic and fiscal reforms, and improvements to macroeconomic stability and external finances.\u201d On the flipside, Egypt\u2019s \u201cstill large fiscal\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/178.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/575450","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=575450"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/575450\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/575445"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/575451"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=575450"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=575450"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=575450"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=575450"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=575450"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}