{"id":575238,"date":"2020-10-07T04:12:58","date_gmt":"2020-10-07T04:12:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/07\/falling-inflation-could-lead-to-a-delicate-balancing-act-on-interest-rates\/"},"modified":"2020-10-07T04:12:58","modified_gmt":"2020-10-07T04:12:58","slug":"falling-inflation-could-lead-to-a-delicate-balancing-act-on-interest-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/07\/falling-inflation-could-lead-to-a-delicate-balancing-act-on-interest-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"Falling inflation could lead to a delicate balancing act on interest rates"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> A delicate balancing act on interest rates: <\/strong>A too-sharp decline in Egypt\u2019s September inflation figures could result in \u201cconsultations\u201d with the IMF, which would likely recommend more interest rate cuts, Patrick Werr writes for Reuters<\/a>. The consultations would be triggered under the USD 5.2 bn stand-by facility Egypt agreed with the fund earlier this year<\/a>, which stipulates that the government would consult with an IMF technical team should the inflation rate fall below 6% by the end of September, and with the fund\u2019s executive board if it dips below 4%.<\/p>\n

Where is inflation now?<\/strong> Egypt\u2019s annual headline urban inflation slowed down to 3.4% in August \u2014 the lowest since 2005 \u2014 from 4.2% in July. Economists quoted by Reuters expect the September numbers to hover in the same region. September figures are expected to be out on Saturday. Renaissance Capital had said last month<\/a> it expects inflation to close out 2020 just below the Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s (CBE) inner band target of 6-12%.<\/p>\n

What to expect:<\/strong> Reuters suggests that a nudge from the IMF to cut interest rates when the CBE next meets in mid-November would pose a quandary as policymakers have shied away from being too aggressive with monetary easing since they enacted an emergency 300 basis point cut in March to stimulate a recovery from covid-19. \u201cI don\u2019t think they\u2019re comfortable cutting rates when the external balances are still under pressure. High real rates also keep the carry trade going<\/strong>,\u201d said EFG Hermes\u2019 head of macroeconomic research Mohamed Abu Basha. This means monetary easing would be preferable for policymakers if they ensure other sources of FX, including tourism and expat remittances, recover from the pandemic-induced shock, the economists say.<\/p>\n

In its most recent meeting,<\/strong> the MPC lowered rates by 50 basis points<\/strong>, against<\/a>expectations<\/a>, and citing favorable summer indicators. The move could also alleviate pressure for another rate cut in November, Werr suggests. The IMF\u2019s next formal consultation with Egypt is scheduled for December.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Why is low inflation a bad thing? Falling inflation implies (but is not a cause of) muted <\/strong>economic activity. <\/strong>If inflation (in any economy) is considered lower than it \u201cshould\u201d be, this is usually a signal that people aren\u2019t spending enough money on consumption and investment. Policymakers have succeeded in taming inflation from a post-float peak of 33% in July 2017, but the shift in priorities now needs to be towards supporting growth in 2021 and 2022, said Charles Robertson, chief economist at Renaissance Capital. Robertson also points to manufacturing in particular as one area of the economy that is lacking in investment.<\/p>\n

The CBE has had a very steady hand as it guided the economy through the pandemic<\/strong>, including its approach to interest rate cuts and stimulus. And cutting rates in the near term may do little to stimulate corporate spending, anyway: With market demand still recovering, there isn\u2019t much in the way of an imperative for corporates to take debt on board <\/strong>when utilization is well below 100%, although lower rates could prompt a bit more consumer spending.<\/p>\n

And then there\u2019s the need to stay attractive to the carry trade<\/strong>, where the Financial Times<\/a> suggests we may be facing competition from other EMs that are raising rates, including Turkey and Hungary.<\/p>\n

But Enterprise, what is the carry trade?<\/strong> Check out our explainer here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A delicate balancing act on interest rates: A too-sharp decline in Egypt\u2019s September inflation figures could result in \u201cconsultations\u201d with the IMF, which would likely recommend more interest rate cuts, Patrick Werr writes for Reuters. The consultations would be triggered under the USD 5.2 bn stand-by facility Egypt agreed with the fund earlier this year, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":575239,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[7106,104,72,272,182,724,100,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-575238","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-debt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-imf","tag-inflation","tag-monetary-policy","tag-policy","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"09265a82-4346-4d8b-9df6-ca74beaf0fec","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/72.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[575233],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nFalling inflation could lead to a delicate balancing act on interest rates - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/07\/falling-inflation-could-lead-to-a-delicate-balancing-act-on-interest-rates\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Falling inflation could lead to a delicate balancing act on interest rates\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A delicate balancing act on interest rates: A too-sharp decline in Egypt\u2019s September inflation figures could result in \u201cconsultations\u201d with the IMF, which would likely recommend more interest rate cuts, Patrick Werr writes for Reuters. 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The delayed start to the academic year was the main driver, with the prices of educational\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/11\/115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":576022,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/08\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-to-leave-rates-on-hold-in-november-amid-covid-us-election-uncertainty\/","url_meta":{"origin":575238,"position":2},"title":"Enterprise Poll: Central bank to leave rates on hold in November amid covid, US election uncertainty","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 November 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- Rates seen left on hold amid covid, US election uncertainty: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will likely keep interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to an Enterprise poll. Six of eight economists and analysts surveyed expect the MPC to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/11\/78.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":576357,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/22\/imf-gives-initial-approval-to-second-tranche-of-usd-5-2-bn-standby-loan\/","url_meta":{"origin":575238,"position":3},"title":"IMF gives initial approval to second tranche of USD 5.2 bn standby loan","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 November 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt is on track to receive the second tranche of its USD 5.2 bn IMF standby loan after it reached a staff-level agreement with the fund following a review of the 12-month program, the IMF said in a statement. Some USD 1.6 bn will be paid out should the fund\u2019s\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/11\/222.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594266,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/24\/egypts-economic-growth-to-slow-slightly-to-5-5-in-fy2019-2020-poll\/","url_meta":{"origin":575238,"position":4},"title":"Egypt\u2019s economic growth to slow slightly to 5.5% in FY2019-2020 -poll","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economic growth to slow slightly to 5.5% in FY2019-2020 -poll: Egypt\u2019s economic growth will slow to 5.5% in the current FY2019-2020 fiscal year, down from 5.6% last year and below the government\u2019s target of 6% growth in FY2019-2020 and overall target range of 6-7%, according to a Reuters poll\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/10\/1741.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":593045,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/17\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-interest-rates-by-100-bps\/","url_meta":{"origin":575238,"position":5},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt cuts interest rates by 100 bps","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE cuts rates by 100 bps, in line with market expectations: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy (MPC) cut interest rates by 100 bps on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The central bank cited inflation\u2019s continued deceleration in October, with annual headline inflation hitting its lowest\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/575238","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=575238"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/575238\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/575233"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/575239"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=575238"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=575238"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=575238"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=575238"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=575238"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}