{"id":574907,"date":"2020-09-27T04:00:20","date_gmt":"2020-09-27T04:00:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/09\/27\/against-expectations-central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-interest-rates-by-50-bps\/"},"modified":"2020-09-27T04:00:20","modified_gmt":"2020-09-27T04:00:20","slug":"against-expectations-central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-interest-rates-by-50-bps","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/09\/27\/against-expectations-central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-interest-rates-by-50-bps\/","title":{"rendered":"Against expectations, Central Bank of Egypt cuts interest rates by 50 bps"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Central Bank of Egypt surprises with first rate cut since March:<\/strong> The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut interest rates by 50 bps on Thursday \u2014 the first since the emergency 300 bps rate cut in March<\/a>, the central bank said in a statement (pdf)<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The move was a surprise to most:<\/strong> All 11 economists and analysts we surveyed last week<\/a> predicted the bank would leave rates unchanged to support the EGP and the all-important carry trade. In a research note out late last Wednesday, Arqaam Capital suggested however that there was a \u201cdecent chance\u201d for a small rate cut as Egypt\u2019s carry trade has been one of the most profitable among emerging markets for the carry trade, with double the risk-adjusted return on one-year t-bills offered by its EM peers.<\/p>\n

Where rates stand now:<\/strong> The CBE\u2019s overnight deposit rate is now at 8.75% and the lending rate is 9.75%. The main operation and discount rates are now at 9.25%.<\/p>\n

Low inflation paves the way:<\/strong> \u201cAs incoming data continues to confirm the moderation of inflation expectations, the reduction of policy rates in today\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting provides appropriate support to economic activity, while remaining consistent with achieving price stability over the medium-term,\u201d the central bank said. Annual headline urban inflation decelerated to a 10-month low of 3.4% in August<\/a>, while preliminary figures show real GDP growth in FY2019-2020 came in at 3.5%, the central bank said. Despite unemployment rising to a two-year high in 2Q2020, the bank sees \u201ca gradual recovery in economic activity,\u201d as indicated by key economic indicators stabilizing in July and August.<\/p>\n

The CBE now expects inflation to fall on the lower end of its 6-12% target range in 4Q2020.<\/strong> Renaissance Capital had expected as much, saying in a research note earlier this month<\/a> that inflation is expected to close out the year just below the inner band target, thanks to muted consumer demand. The firm had expected the CBE to take \u201cmeasures\u201d to nudge inflation up to remain within the targeted range, suggesting that one possible route would be canceling the 15% high-yielding certificates of deposit \u2014 a prophecy that was realized last week<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The decision to move towards monetary easing suggests that the CBE is not concerned about spooking the carry trade<\/strong>, Arqaam\u2019s Noaman Khalid told Reuters<\/a>. Foreign liquidity is also \u201crelatively stable,\u201d Beltone Financial said in a research note on Thursday. Remittances from Egyptians working abroad rose 11% in July<\/a> against expectations, which has helped provide FX support amid low revenues from tourism and exports.<\/p>\n

Pushing back on the EGP?<\/strong> \u201cThe central bank may have also wanted to push back against the recent appreciation of the EGP,\u201d Capital Economics\u2019 James Swanston wrote, noting that the EGP has appreciated by 1% against the greenback since the last MPC meeting.<\/p>\n

A rate cut could also help spur capex borrowing and generally be \u201cgood news for businesses in terms of liquidity<\/strong>, which has been quite tight since the pandemic,\u201d Naeem Brokerage\u2019s director of research Allen Sandeep told Bloomberg<\/a>. Our 2020 reader poll earlier this year<\/a> had suggested that 46% of you wanted to see interest rates fall to around their current levels to unlock capex spending, but private demand growth is now the key to encourage capex borrowing, Beltone said.<\/p>\n

Could we see more rate cuts?<\/strong> It\u2019s unlikely in the short term, says EFG Hermes\u2019 head of macroeconomic research Mohamed Abu Basha. While there\u2019s room for more monetary easing, Abu Basha says the \u201cuncertain external environment\u201d makes it improbable that the CBE will push more cuts soon. Swanston thinks that the central bank will \u201cremain cautious\u201d in the months ahead, but is now forecasting rates to fall to 7% by the end of next year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Central Bank of Egypt surprises with first rate cut since March: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut interest rates by 50 bps on Thursday \u2014 the first since the emergency 300 bps rate cut in March, the central bank said in a statement (pdf). The move was a surprise to most: All 11 economists […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":574908,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[271,72,349,724,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-574907","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-enterpriseam","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"383b8b99-dd6d-46df-b2dd-f2c241ea039f","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/9\/278.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[574902],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nAgainst expectations, Central Bank of Egypt cuts interest rates by 50 bps - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/09\/27\/against-expectations-central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-interest-rates-by-50-bps\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Against expectations, Central Bank of Egypt cuts interest rates by 50 bps\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Central Bank of Egypt surprises with first rate cut since March: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut interest rates by 50 bps on Thursday \u2014 the first since the emergency 300 bps rate cut in March, the central bank said in a statement (pdf). 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The central bank cited inflation\u2019s continued deceleration in October, with annual headline inflation hitting its lowest\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":595490,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/29\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-rates-by-100-bps-in-line-with-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":574907,"position":1},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt cuts rates by 100 bps, in line with expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"In line with expectations, CBE cuts rates: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut interest rates by 100 bps on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The central bank cited last month\u2019s inflation figures, which hit a six-year low, as well as declining unemployment and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596258,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/22\/cbe-likely-to-cut-rates-today-economists\/","url_meta":{"origin":574907,"position":2},"title":"CBE likely to cut rates today -economists","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 August 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"There\u2019s a growing consensus for a rate cut today: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will cut its benchmark overnight deposit rate by \u201cat least\u201d 100 basis points when it meets later today as easing inflation and a stable EGP offset concerns of a sell-off, according to 10 of 12\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/8\/580.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":568133,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/20\/hold-your-horses\/","url_meta":{"origin":574907,"position":3},"title":"Hold your horses","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 December 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee holds its final meeting of the year on Thursday, according to an Enterprise poll. All 10 economists and analysts we surveyed expect the central bank to hold off on further easing, citing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "POLL"","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/325.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":571394,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/11\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-interest-rates-unchanged-in-may-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":574907,"position":4},"title":"Enterprise Poll: CBE to leave interest rates unchanged in May 2020","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 May 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave interest rates unchanged when it meets this week: The Central Bank of Egypt will likely leave rates on hold for the second consecutive month when its monetary policy committee meets later this week, according to a poll of analysts conducted by Enterprise. Ten of 12\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/97.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":591925,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/12\/22\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-keep-rates-on-hold-in-final-meeting-of-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":574907,"position":5},"title":"Enterprise poll: Central Bank of Egypt to keep rates on hold in final meeting of 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 December 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- Economists expect CBE to keep rates on hold in final meeting of 2019: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to seven of 10 economists polled by Enterprise. This is the lowest rate of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/12\/CBE-1600px.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/574907","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=574907"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/574907\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/574902"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/574908"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=574907"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=574907"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=574907"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=574907"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=574907"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}