{"id":573476,"date":"2020-08-06T04:03:12","date_gmt":"2020-08-06T04:03:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/08\/06\/stimulus-overkill-could-trigger-a-fiscal-crisis-in-emerging-markets\/"},"modified":"2020-08-06T04:03:12","modified_gmt":"2020-08-06T04:03:12","slug":"stimulus-overkill-could-trigger-a-fiscal-crisis-in-emerging-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/08\/06\/stimulus-overkill-could-trigger-a-fiscal-crisis-in-emerging-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Stimulus overkill could trigger a fiscal crisis in emerging markets"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> The wave of covid-19 stimulus is putting emerging markets in a bind:<\/strong> Emerging markets may be lining themselves up for a fresh fiscal crisis caused by the very stimulus measures that prevented a financial meltdown earlier this year, Sydney Maki writes for Bloomberg<\/a>. Governments and central banks in the emerging world ramped up spending and slashed interest rates as the pandemic intensified, and lockdown measures crippled consumer demand and stifled investment.<\/p>\n

A catch-22:<\/strong> Having ridden out the worst of the initial economic storm, markets are now likely to hone in on the troubling levels of debt accumulated during the crisis. Debt-to-GDP levels in emerging markets rose to a record 230% during 1Q2020, and around USD 3.7 tn of debt is due for repayment this year, according to the Institute for International Finance. If limp growth rates persist in the coming months, countries may be forced into more spending, intensifying scrutiny on public finances. Yet, responding to these concerns by cutting back on spending and raising interest rates risks killing off a potential recovery and inviting a protracted recession.<\/p>\n

And of course the threat of the virus remains ever-present:<\/strong> A resurgence of the virus in emerging markets will increase the likelihood of a fresh emerging-market debt crisis, the IMF said<\/a> on Tuesday. Countries with large current account deficits, high levels of foreign currency debt or dwindling foreign reserves may be forced into default if a renewed outbreak sparks further unrest in the markets, the fund said.<\/p>\n

And this time a weak USD is unlikely to help them: <\/strong>Emerging markets are unlikely to benefit from the weakening USD as they have in the past due to heightened levels of risk, analysts tell Reuters<\/a>. In normal times a falling USD tends to translate into higher inflows into emerging markets as investors seek higher rates of return. But although the USD suffered its worst month in a decade in July, bondholders continued to plough more money into US and European junk-rated assets than they did into emerging markets amid concerns over debt sustainability and low levels of liquidity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The wave of covid-19 stimulus is putting emerging markets in a bind: Emerging markets may be lining themselves up for a fresh fiscal crisis caused by the very stimulus measures that prevented a financial meltdown earlier this year, Sydney Maki writes for Bloomberg. Governments and central banks in the emerging world ramped up spending and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":573477,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9272],"tags":[82,107,7106,115,72,527,1510],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-573476","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-macro-picture","tag-bonds","tag-covid-19","tag-debt","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-pandemic","tag-the-macro-picture","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"7246104d-d062-445e-88b2-544816ccfcb5","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/8\/35.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[573459],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nStimulus overkill could trigger a fiscal crisis in emerging markets - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/08\/06\/stimulus-overkill-could-trigger-a-fiscal-crisis-in-emerging-markets\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stimulus overkill could trigger a fiscal crisis in emerging markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The wave of covid-19 stimulus is putting emerging markets in a bind: Emerging markets may be lining themselves up for a fresh fiscal crisis caused by the very stimulus measures that prevented a financial meltdown earlier this year, Sydney Maki writes for Bloomberg. 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The Global Debt\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/11\/2601.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":575512,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/18\/foreign-debt-is-leaving-emerging-markets-more-vulnerable-to-shocks-than-ever-before\/","url_meta":{"origin":573476,"position":1},"title":"Foreign debt is leaving emerging markets more vulnerable to shocks than ever before","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 October 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Foreign debt is leaving emerging markets more vulnerable to shocks than ever before: Widening private debt, rapid monetary expansion and low-cost lending have left emerging markets with a much larger challenge in piecing together an economic recovery from covid-19 than they did during the global financial crisis, according to a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/182.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":572976,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/07\/15\/why-we-now-need-to-be-talking-more-about-ems\/","url_meta":{"origin":573476,"position":2},"title":"Why we now need to be talking more about EMs","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 July 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Why we now need to be talking more about EMs: Middle-income economies that stand halfway between the world\u2019s richest and poorest \u201care uniquely vulnerable in the pandemic.\u201d Despite this, those countries have largely been absent from the global narrative about the extraordinary steps needed to shield the global economy from\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/7\/115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":565373,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/05\/brace-yourself-for-record-but-uneven-global-growth-this-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":573476,"position":3},"title":"Brace yourself for record (but uneven) global growth this year","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"5 April 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"World economy to face uneven growth post-pandemic despite a speedy recovery, says Bloomberg: The global economy, on average, is on pace for 2021 to register its fastest growth rate in over half a century, but it could take a while for some countries to join a post-pandemic charge which the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/4\/340.jpeg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":554906,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/11\/21\/are-we-entering-the-era-of-post-pandemic-austerity\/","url_meta":{"origin":573476,"position":4},"title":"Are we entering the era of post-pandemic austerity?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 November 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Governments are widely scaling back massive fiscal programs that had helped push economies through covid \u2014 a trend that, contrary to popular belief, could potentially have more impact on the global economy than monetary policy tightening by central banks, says Bloomberg. Together, governments plugged in an amount equal to 2.5%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/11\/189.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570495,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/02\/emerging-markets-flock-to-the-imf-for-help-as-covid-19-brings-looming-economic-crisis\/","url_meta":{"origin":573476,"position":5},"title":"Emerging markets flock to the IMF for help as covid-19 brings looming economic crisis","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 April 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Emerging markets flock to the IMF for help as covid-19 brings looming economic crisis: Eighty-five countries have recently approached the IMF for emergency assistance, driven by record capital outflows, plummeting oil prices, a dearth of tourism, and reduced demand for exports, the Financial Times reports. 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