{"id":572966,"date":"2020-07-15T04:00:28","date_gmt":"2020-07-15T04:00:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/07\/15\/egyptian-banks-fx-liquidity-still-vulnerable-as-recovery-from-covid-19-sell-off-will-take-longer-than-2018-em-zombie-apocalypse-fitch\/"},"modified":"2020-07-15T04:00:28","modified_gmt":"2020-07-15T04:00:28","slug":"egyptian-banks-fx-liquidity-still-vulnerable-as-recovery-from-covid-19-sell-off-will-take-longer-than-2018-em-zombie-apocalypse-fitch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/07\/15\/egyptian-banks-fx-liquidity-still-vulnerable-as-recovery-from-covid-19-sell-off-will-take-longer-than-2018-em-zombie-apocalypse-fitch\/","title":{"rendered":"Egyptian banks\u2019 FX liquidity \u201cstill vulnerable\u201d as recovery from covid-19 sell-off will take longer than 2018 EM Zombie Apocalypse -Fitch"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Egyptian banks\u2019 FX liquidity \u201cstill vulnerable\u201d \u2014 it\u2019s going to take longer to recover from the covid-19 sell-off <\/strong>than from the <\/strong> 2018 EM Zombie Apocalypse -Fitch:<\/strong> The capital outflows Egypt sustained over the past several months as a result of the fallout from the covid-19 pandemic was \u201cmore severe\u201d and the strain is likely to last longer than the emerging markets sell-off in 2018, Fitch Ratings said in a recent report<\/a>. Egyptian banks\u2019 net foreign assets (NFA) dropped to negative USD 5.3 bn to service these outflows, the report suggests. The ratings agency sees FX liquidity within the banking system as still being \u201cvulnerable\u201d to the swings of emerging market investor appetite and a general shortage of FX receipts because of the pandemic.<\/p>\n

We\u2019re getting back on our feet, but a full recovery will take time:<\/strong> While the USD 8 bn in funding Egypt has received from the IMF and the USD 5 bn eurobond issuance in May<\/a> \u201chave helped to ease pressure on foreign-currency (FC) liquidity in the short term \u2026 a sustainable improvement in [foreign currency] liquidity would require the return of FC receipts, which are contingent on external economic factors,\u201d the report says. These external factors include lower international demand driving down Suez Canal receipts, as well as merchandise exports, in addition to lower remittances from Egyptian expats. The ratings agency sees Egypt\u2019s current account deficit widening to 5.3% of GDP this year from 3.6% in 2019<\/a>, \u201cintensifying pressure on FC reserves.\u201d<\/p>\n

Foreign portfolio investment is starting to pick up again:<\/strong> Egypt has started to see a reversal of outflows as foreign central bank stimulus drives renewed risk appetite for high-yield EM debt. Foreign inflows have totalled around USD 3 bn in the past month, Al Masry Al Youm<\/a> reported earlier this week, citing an unnamed banking source. Inflows have so far accelerated in July: last Thursday saw some USD 592 mn in new portfolio investment \u2014 the largest amount in a single day since the outbreak of the covid-19 pandemic in March \u2014 and Sunday saw USD 367 mn in inflows, the source said.<\/p>\n

But a fresh wave of outflows is still a possibility:<\/strong> Fitch says Egypt could see a new wave of outflows if the EGP were to sustain a \u201csharp depreciation.\u201d Another EM sell-off would also deliver a fresh blow to FX liquidity and banks\u2019 NFA, as foreign holdings of t-bills represented some 20% of FX reserves at the end of April.<\/p>\n

No cause for concern?<\/strong> \u201cWe are not worried as we believe the strain on foreign currency liquidity is relatively easing currently as reflected by the currency rate cooling off to around EGP 16.00 \/ USD from EGP 16.25 a few weeks ago,\u201d HC Securities\u2019 Monette Doss told Enterprise. \u201dWe believe that at these levels Egyptian treasuries offer attractive risk-adjusted return coupled with low currency volatility which has possibly resulted in regained interest of foreign investors.\u201d<\/p>\n

On the upside, demand for FX has dropped considerably because of the<\/strong> pandemic<\/strong>, Suez Canal Bank board member Mohamed Abdel Aal tells us. While Egypt\u2019s decision to close its airspace to commercial international flights caused tourism receipts to drop to zero, it also meant that Egyptians weren\u2019t drawing FX to support international travel. The closure of the annual Hajj pilgrimage also saved the country substantial outflows, Abdel Aal says.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Egyptian banks\u2019 FX liquidity \u201cstill vulnerable\u201d \u2014 it\u2019s going to take longer to recover from the covid-19 sell-off than from the 2018 EM Zombie Apocalypse -Fitch: The capital outflows Egypt sustained over the past several months as a result of the fallout from the covid-19 pandemic was \u201cmore severe\u201d and the strain is likely to 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2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Strong FX reserves, fiscal reform to mitigate short-term headwinds on Egypt\u2019s external account -Fitch Ratings: Strong international reserves and the government\u2019s fiscal reforms will help to mitigate the impact of the covid-19 shock on Egypt\u2019s credit position, but the fallout will nonetheless have a significant impact on the country\u2019s GDP\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/270.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":558308,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/08\/04\/credit-risk-is-falling-in-the-banking-sector\/","url_meta":{"origin":572966,"position":1},"title":"Credit risk is falling in the banking sector","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 August 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"An improving operating environment since 3Q2020 has eased pressure on Egyptian banks\u2019 credit profiles and ratings, according to a Fitch Ratings report yesterday. Fitch had in July revised its outlook for the banking sector from negative to stable, \u201creflecting the stable outlook on the operating environment,\u201d according to the report.What\u2019s\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banking"","block_context":{"text":"Banking","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/banking\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/8\/83.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":568057,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/16\/fx-liquidity-at-banks-is-recovering-from-covid\/","url_meta":{"origin":572966,"position":2},"title":"FX liquidity at banks is recovering from covid","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"16 December 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The banking sector\u2019s FX liquidity has recovered from pandemic-induced lows, thanks to the return of foreign inflows to capital markets, Fitch Ratings said in a report yesterday. Net foreign assets at banks increased to USD 2.9 bn in October, continuing to rebound after having turned positive in September. Excluding the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/288.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567734,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/06\/banks-still-face-heightened-medium-term-threats-thanks-to-covid-fitch\/","url_meta":{"origin":572966,"position":3},"title":"Banks still face \u201cheightened\u201d medium-term threats thanks to covid \u2013Fitch","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 December 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Covid is the gift that keeps on giving for Egyptian banks, which will remain exposed to \u201cheightened\u201d medium-term threats, Fitch Ratings said in its latest report on state-owned Banque Misr\u2019s credit rating. The ratings agency still sees low near-term risks, especially as it relates to foreign currency funding and liquidity\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banking"","block_context":{"text":"Banking","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/banking\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":571164,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/03\/egyptian-banks-net-foreign-assets-nearly-halved-in-march-amid-covid-19-sell-off\/","url_meta":{"origin":572966,"position":4},"title":"Egyptian banks\u2019 net foreign assets nearly halved in March amid covid-19 sell-off","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"3 May 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cEgypt\u2019s commercial banks provided USD to investors in March, helping keep the EGP stable during a bond selloff\u201d in a replay of the 2018 emerging markets rout that hit Egypt alongside other global markets, Bloomberg reports. Reuters also has the story. Egyptian banks\u2019 net foreign assets (NFAs) dropped 45% m-o-m\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/2.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/572966","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=572966"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/572966\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/572961"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/572967"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=572966"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=572966"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=572966"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=572966"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=572966"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}