{"id":571528,"date":"2020-05-14T04:25:39","date_gmt":"2020-05-14T04:25:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/14\/the-impending-em-debt-crisis-is-going-to-be-messy\/"},"modified":"2020-05-14T04:25:39","modified_gmt":"2020-05-14T04:25:39","slug":"the-impending-em-debt-crisis-is-going-to-be-messy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/14\/the-impending-em-debt-crisis-is-going-to-be-messy\/","title":{"rendered":"The impending EM debt crisis is going to be messy"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Emerging markets are facing an impending debt crisis that will be more difficult <\/strong>and \u201cmessier\u201d to resolve than previous crises<\/strong>, as countries that tapped the bond market \u201cat a record pace\u201d over the past decade are now under immense economic pressure from the covid-19 pandemic, Colby Smith and Robin Wigglesworth write for the Financial Times<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The road ahead will be tough, to say the least:<\/strong> \u201cThe withdrawal of money [from EM funds] is greater and more sudden than in 2008, the economic shock is huge and the path to recovery more uncertain than it was after the last crisis,\u201d says former head of EM debt at Pimco, Ramin Toloui. Compounding the problem is an increased difficulty for borrowers to reach a debt restructuring agreement with their creditors, which are now mostly \u201ca multitude of bond funds\u201d as opposed to banks and governments.<\/p>\n

Complication #1- The threat of vulture funds<\/strong>, which threaten to sue sovereign borrowers in the middle of a debt crisis and demand that these governments repay their full debts, rather than undergoing debt restructuring. With the threat of a lengthy and costly legal battle, governments sometimes opt to pay these funds the full amount \u2014 as long as they remain a minority \u2014 and the funds come out on top. After one fund managed to eke out USD 2.4 bn<\/a> from the Argentinian government 15 years after it defaulted, analysts are now concerned that we could see a wave of imitators that would worsen the looming debt crisis.<\/p>\n

Complication #2- EM governments themselves are reluctant to ask for debt restructuring<\/strong> for fear of a credit rating downgrade that would make it difficult for them to tap debt markets again in the future, Jonathan Wheatley writes for the salmon-colored paper<\/a>. These concerns are not baseless: Ratings agencies Moody\u2019s, S&P and Fitch have signaled they would \u201chave little choice but to downgrade a sovereign issuer the moment it requested a standstill and would probably regard any renegotiation of terms as a default.\u201d The emerging consensus is also that debt restructuring wouldn\u2019t actually be that helpful in the long run \u2014 governments won\u2019t be any better positioned to repay their debts a few months down the line than they are today.<\/p>\n

Enter the Paris Club, which may be <\/strong>about to put its weight behind an expanded debt moratorium to more than just the poorest countries<\/strong> and beyond the G20\u2019s initial six-month period<\/a>, Paris Club Chair Odile Renaud-Basso said, according to Bloomberg<\/a>. While Renaud-Basso says the club is \u201cconfident\u201d China will agree to pause debt repayments, he says that middle-income EMs likely also need debt relief or restructuring agreements. China has received several debt relief requests<\/a> from countries that received loans from its banks under the Belt and Road Initiative, with the majority coming from African countries, where lenders doled out USD 461 bn in loans since 2013.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Emerging markets are facing an impending debt crisis that will be more difficult and \u201cmessier\u201d to resolve than previous crises, as countries that tapped the bond market \u201cat a record pace\u201d over the past decade are now under immense economic pressure from the covid-19 pandemic, Colby Smith and Robin Wigglesworth write for the Financial Times. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":571529,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9272],"tags":[7098,2169,116,7106,115,72,1510],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-571528","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-macro-picture","tag-africa","tag-belt-and-road-initiative","tag-china","tag-debt","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-the-macro-picture","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"b7c41168-b163-4562-b0b1-28688af5ef54","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/158.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[571510],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nThe impending EM debt crisis is going to be messy - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/14\/the-impending-em-debt-crisis-is-going-to-be-messy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The impending EM debt crisis is going to be messy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Emerging markets are facing an impending debt crisis that will be more difficult and \u201cmessier\u201d to resolve than previous crises, as countries that tapped the bond market \u201cat a record pace\u201d over the past decade are now under immense economic pressure from the covid-19 pandemic, Colby Smith and Robin Wigglesworth write for the Financial Times. 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Investor demand for emerging market debt continues to soar despite bond yields nearing historic lows, writes Carolyn Cui for the Wall Street Journal. EM governments and companies have sold USD 179 bn in USD-denominated debt this year through March 31,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":575512,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/18\/foreign-debt-is-leaving-emerging-markets-more-vulnerable-to-shocks-than-ever-before\/","url_meta":{"origin":571528,"position":1},"title":"Foreign debt is leaving emerging markets more vulnerable to shocks than ever before","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 October 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Foreign debt is leaving emerging markets more vulnerable to shocks than ever before: Widening private debt, rapid monetary expansion and low-cost lending have left emerging markets with a much larger challenge in piecing together an economic recovery from covid-19 than they did during the global financial crisis, according to a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/182.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570535,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/05\/an-emerging-market-credit-crisis-is-looming-in-spite-of-the-feds-repo-facility\/","url_meta":{"origin":571528,"position":2},"title":"An emerging market credit crisis is looming in spite of the Fed\u2019s repo facility","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"5 April 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"An emerging market credit crisis is looming as an increasing number of countries are struggling to repay their debts amid the economic fallout from covid-19, the Financial Times reports. The scale of the pandemic has triggered widespread funding pressures despite many countries now having more tools to withstand economic shocks\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/4\/32.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":571453,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/12\/ems-turn-to-local-debt-markets-burn-through-fx-reserves-to-weather-the-covid-storm\/","url_meta":{"origin":571528,"position":3},"title":"EMs turn to local debt markets, burn through FX reserves to weather the covid storm","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 May 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"EMs turn to local debt markets, burn through FX reserves to weather the covid storm: Emerging markets are (kind of unexpectedly) not being beaten to a pulp by the current economic crisis \u2014 thanks in large part to their local debt markets, Ashmore global head of research Jan Dehn said\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/124.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":573476,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/08\/06\/stimulus-overkill-could-trigger-a-fiscal-crisis-in-emerging-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":571528,"position":4},"title":"Stimulus overkill could trigger a fiscal crisis in emerging markets","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 August 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The wave of covid-19 stimulus is putting emerging markets in a bind: Emerging markets may be lining themselves up for a fresh fiscal crisis caused by the very stimulus measures that prevented a financial meltdown earlier this year, Sydney Maki writes for Bloomberg. Governments and central banks in the emerging\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/8\/35.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":593429,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/27\/emerging-markets-fx-funding-needs-to-repay-usd-denominated-debt-to-soar-next-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":571528,"position":5},"title":"Emerging markets\u2019 FX funding needs to repay USD-denominated debt to \u201csoar\u201d next year","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Emerging markets\u2019 FX funding needs to repay a decade of USD-denominated debt are on track to \u201csoar\u201d next year, Caroline Grady writes for the Financial Times. EMs have racked up significant debts since the 2008 global financial crisis, and are scheduled to repay nearly USD 800 bn-worth of debt on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/11\/1221.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/571528","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=571528"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/571528\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/571510"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/571529"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=571528"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=571528"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=571528"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=571528"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=571528"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}