{"id":571412,"date":"2020-05-11T03:56:06","date_gmt":"2020-05-11T03:56:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/11\/el-erian-on-how-to-set-ourselves-up-for-the-post-covid-world-and-why-that-world-will-be-particularly-challenging-to-navigate\/"},"modified":"2020-05-11T03:56:06","modified_gmt":"2020-05-11T03:56:06","slug":"el-erian-on-how-to-set-ourselves-up-for-the-post-covid-world-and-why-that-world-will-be-particularly-challenging-to-navigate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/11\/el-erian-on-how-to-set-ourselves-up-for-the-post-covid-world-and-why-that-world-will-be-particularly-challenging-to-navigate\/","title":{"rendered":"El Erian on how to set ourselves up for the post-covid world \u2014 and why that world will be particularly challenging to navigate"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-01\"><\/a> <strong>El Erian on how to set ourselves up for the post-covid world \u2014 and why t<\/strong><strong>hat world will be particularly challenging to navigate:<\/strong> In a lecture for Nile University, Allianz economic advisor Mohamed El Erian offered his take on how the global economy came face-to-face with the worst (and most synchronized) downturn in history and the lessons we can all learn as individuals, businesses, and policymakers for the road ahead. Among the highlights:<\/p>\n<p><strong>The world entered the current crisis in a \u201cvery weak\u201d position<\/strong> because we never effectively secured sustainable and inclusive growth after the financial crisis, we dismissed the importance of climate action, and we didn\u2019t properly resolve global inequality. Now, major economies are expected to see their GDPs contract by 10%+ and supply chains are breaking down.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Developing countries, including Egypt, can\u2019t decouple themselves from these global realities.<\/strong> With the contractions knocking on developed markets\u2019 doors, Egypt and other developing markets can expect to feel the pinch because of lower export volumes, commodity prices, foreign direct investment (FDI), remittances, and tourism. \u201cThis is not a pleasant neighborhood to be in, but unfortunately it is the neighborhood we have.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>But that\u2019s not to say we\u2019re all in the same boat. Unlike Egypt, some developing countries are already buckling<\/strong> under the pressure from spillover effects from developed markets. And most of these developing countries haven\u2019t even had a significant outbreak of covid-19, El Erian notes.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Non-traditional int\u2019l players are taking the lead in an otherwise \u201cdisappointing\u201d global effort:<\/strong> On the policy side, individual governments and policymakers are stepping up to the plate with a \u201cwhatever it takes\u201d attitude, but the international response thus far has been \u201cdisappointing,\u201d particularly when considering that this outbreak is an international problem and responsibility, El Erian says. This vacuum left by traditional players, such as the G7, has pushed African countries (Egypt involved), the United Nations, and the G20, among others, to take the lead in coordinating response measures.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Speaking of which: Why hasn\u2019t the pandemic ravaged Africa the way it has, say, Italy and New York?<\/strong> The \u201cgreat puzzle\u201d of the outbreak is that there hasn\u2019t been a massive outbreak of cases in sub-Saharan Africa, where healthcare systems wouldn\u2019t be up to the challenge, El Erian stressed. However, nobody is really certain of whether the subdued spread of covid-19 in the continent, including Egypt, is because of the \u201cpositive\u201d answers \u2014 young populations that are able to withstand the disease without showing symptoms, and a warm climate \u2014 or if it\u2019s actually the worst case answer \u2014 that it\u2019s just going to take more time.<\/p>\n<p><strong>So what does the road ahead look like?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>#1- Everyone will have more debt<\/strong> \u2014 and debt levels in advanced economies are going to start catching up with their EM counterparts. Policymakers\u2019 short-term priority is to stop short-term problems (a temporary job loss, a business temporarily losing its sales revenues, etc) from becoming long-term impediments (bankruptcy). And the way to go about that is to \u201cborrow, and borrow, and borrow.\u201d While a wall of debt sounds less than appealing to say the least, El Erian stresses that this is a far better outcome than failing to give support where it is needed.<\/p>\n<p><strong>#2- We\u2019re going to enter an era of deglobalization.<\/strong> The geopolitical element of the pandemic-induced shock to the global system suggests that a wave of \u201cpolitical anger\u201d (previous iterations of which yielded \u201cunlikely outcomes\u201d such as Brexit and Donald Trump\u2019s election) will make continued globalization difficult, El Erian says. <strong>Changing company behavior will also be a key driver of deglobalization:<\/strong> Businesses will move away from relying on \u201cjust-in-time\u201d models as resilience and sustainability become watchwords. That means they will begin localizing supply chains, and that also means there will be an increased intertwining of the public and private sectors in developed markets.<\/p>\n<p><strong>#3- The world will likely have to learn to \u201clive with the disease.\u201d<\/strong> Until a vaccine and treatment are available, we need to learn two things: The first is to reduce the damage it creates, including properly equipping countries\u2019 healthcare infrastructure with sufficient hospital beds, ventilators, and other necessary supplies. The second is that the global economy will continue to be a \u201cmassive headwind\u201d but it can be offset by investing in human capital, institutions, and improving business climates that will together form a tailwind for economic growth.<\/p>\n<p><strong>#4- Countries, companies, and households need to adopt a combination of defensive and offensive measures.<\/strong> Defensive policies should be designed with resilience and optionality in mind, while offensive measures should ensure agility, El Erian says. The defense phase is what we\u2019re experiencing now \u2014 it\u2019s how we\u2019re acting as individuals, households, businesses, governments, and the global order. To be best positioned for the next phase, we need to avoid certain traps, such as looking for certainty in an uncertain environment, rather than embracing optionality and scenarios, he says.<\/p>\n<p><strong>You can watch the full lecture here (<\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/bit.ly\/2YQ5IdZ\">runtime: 1:30:07<\/a><\/strong><strong>).<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>El Erian on how to set ourselves up for the post-covid world \u2014 and why that world will be particularly challenging to navigate: In a lecture for Nile University, Allianz economic advisor Mohamed El Erian offered his take on how the global economy came face-to-face with the worst (and most synchronized) downturn in history and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":571413,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7279],"tags":[107,72,1887,4694],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-571412","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spotlight","tag-covid-19","tag-enterpriseam","tag-mohamed-el-erian","tag-nile-university","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"2757fee4-3049-4f5d-b350-577167397824","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/103.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[571389],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- 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the 6 October anniversary and Egypt\u2019s 1973 military victory dominated the airwaves last night, with most airing President Abdel Fattah El Sisi\u2019s speech in commemoration of the day: Kelma Akhira\u2019s Lamees El Hadidi (watch, runtime: 1:29), Al Hayah Al Youm (watch, runtime: 1:45), and Masaa DMC\u2019s Ramy Radwan\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Enterprise+: Last Night\u2019s Talk Shows&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Enterprise+: Last Night\u2019s Talk Shows","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/enterprise-last-nights-talk-shows\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598597,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/29\/mohamed-el-erian-appointed-as-president-of-queens-college-at-cambridge-university\/","url_meta":{"origin":571412,"position":1},"title":"Mohamed El Erian appointed as president of Queens\u2019 College at Cambridge 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El Erian will succeed Lord John Leonard Eatwell in October 2020. The son of an Egyptian diplomat and a four-time feature of Foreign Policy\u2019s Top 100 Global\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/5\/2531.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":571694,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/20\/forget-the-v-the-us-economic-recovery-is-going-to-be-a-series-of-ws-el-erian\/","url_meta":{"origin":571412,"position":2},"title":"Forget the V: The US economic recovery is going to be a \u201cseries of W\u2019s\u201d -El Erian","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 May 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Forget the V: The US economic recovery is going to be a \u201cseries of W\u2019s\u201d -El Erian: The chances of the US economy staging a rapid recovery are slim to none due to the level of uncertainty surrounding the spread of the coronavirus and the development of a vaccine, Mohamed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Worth watching&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Worth watching","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/lifestyle\/worth-watching\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/221.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":603509,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/04\/24\/el-erian-appointed-senior-advisor-at-gramercy-fund-management\/","url_meta":{"origin":571412,"position":3},"title":"El Erian appointed senior advisor at Gramercy Fund Management","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 April 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"MOVES- The always-on-point Mohamed El Erian (LinkedIn) has been appointed as a part-time senior adviser at Gramercy Fund Management, according to a press release. A four-time member of Foreign Policy\u2019s Top 100 Global Thinkers and author of When Markets Collide and The Only Game in Town, is chief economic advisor\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":621964,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/11\/22\/convergence-of-us-and-eu-economies-will-decide-if-a-major-global-recession-is-coming-el-erian\/","url_meta":{"origin":571412,"position":4},"title":"Convergence of US and EU economies will decide if a major global recession is coming \u2013El Erian","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 November 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Convergence of US and EU economies will decide if a major global recession is coming, Allianz Chief Economic Adviser Mohamed El Erian tells BBC World Service\u2019s Hardtalk. For Europe there is a 50% chance for a recession next year, but not for the US. The issue here is the divergence\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":637397,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/11\/15\/what-were-tracking-on-15-november-2017\/","url_meta":{"origin":571412,"position":5},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 15 November 2017","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 November 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"White House considering Mohamed El Erian for Federal Reserve Vice Chair: The White House is considering Allianz\u2019 chief economic adviser and Egypt\u2019s favourite economic whiz Mohamed El Erian for vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, sources confirmed to CNBC on Tuesday. El Erian replace Stanley Fischer, who vacated his seat\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;What We're Tracking Today&quot;","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/571412","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=571412"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/571412\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/571389"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/571413"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=571412"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=571412"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=571412"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=571412"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=571412"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}