{"id":571394,"date":"2020-05-11T03:56:06","date_gmt":"2020-05-11T03:56:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/11\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-interest-rates-unchanged-in-may-2020\/"},"modified":"2020-05-11T03:56:06","modified_gmt":"2020-05-11T03:56:06","slug":"enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-interest-rates-unchanged-in-may-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/11\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-interest-rates-unchanged-in-may-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"Enterprise Poll: CBE to leave interest rates unchanged in May 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> ENTERPRISE POLL- <\/strong>CBE to leave interest rates unchanged when it meets this week:<\/strong> The Central Bank of Egypt will likely leave rates on hold for the second consecutive month when its monetary policy committee meets later this week, according to a poll of analysts conducted by Enterprise. Ten of 12 analysts surveyed expect the central bank to hold off on making further adjustments to rates after its record 300 bps emergency cut<\/a> in March.<\/p>\n

Where rates stand now:<\/strong> The CBE\u2019s overnight deposit rate is at 9.25% and the lending rate is at 10.25%. The main operation and discount rates are both at 9.75%.<\/p>\n

Not enough has changed since March to justify further intervention,<\/strong> Mohamed Abu Basha, head of macroeconomic research at EFG Hermes, told us. \u201cThere have been no significant changes\u201d since March and \u201cthere is no need for any action,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

A cut risks putting pressure on the EGP <\/strong>by turning off the carry trade. Renaissance Capital\u2019s Ahmed Hafez believes that the CBE will not risk placing further downward pressure on the EGP as the pandemic has hit tourism revenues where it hurts. Sigma Capital\u2019s head of research, Abou Bakr Imam, echoed Hafez, noting that the bank will prioritize maintaining currency stability, especially after last month\u2019s sell-off<\/a> of government debt.<\/p>\n

Expectations for higher inflation to squeeze real rates: <\/strong>Holding off on a rate cut will keep the real return on government treasury bills just a notch over 1%, HC Securities\u2019 Monette Doss told us. While inflation is still within the central bank\u2019s target of 9% (+\/- 3%), Doss expects it to tick up to average 9.6% over the coming 12 months.<\/p>\n

Further monetary stimulus would deliver little benefit due to demand slump: <\/strong>\u201cCurrent monetary policy is already accommodative, and the space to add further stimulus is limited,\u201d said Prime Holding\u2019s Mona Bedeir. \u201cThe effect of a further cut in policy rates to boost demand and support sentiment and market functioning will be limited\u201d amid a demand slump caused by the government\u2019s lockdown measures and an uptick in unemployment, she said.<\/p>\n

The dissident voice:<\/strong> Ahmed Abdel Naby, head of research at Shuaa Securities, sees the bank making a 50 bps cut to support economic activity through the slowdown. The small cut is unlikely to negatively affect foreign portfolio investments, he said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave interest rates unchanged when it meets this week: The Central Bank of Egypt will likely leave rates on hold for the second consecutive month when its monetary policy committee meets later this week, according to a poll of analysts conducted by Enterprise. Ten of 12 analysts surveyed expect the central […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":571395,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[271,107,72,349,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-571394","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-covid-19","tag-enterpriseam","tag-interest-rates","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"78bd44d3-3a0f-4c34-8ed4-f7c105135182","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/97.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[571389],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nEnterprise Poll: CBE to leave interest rates unchanged in May 2020 - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/11\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-interest-rates-unchanged-in-may-2020\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Enterprise Poll: CBE to leave interest rates unchanged in May 2020\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave interest rates unchanged when it meets this week: The Central Bank of Egypt will likely leave rates on hold for the second consecutive month when its monetary policy committee meets later this week, according to a poll of analysts conducted by Enterprise. 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All 11 economists and analysts surveyed expect the MPC to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/9\/210.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570452,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/01\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-rates-on-hold-in-april-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":571394,"position":2},"title":"Enterprise Poll: CBE to leave rates on hold in April meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"1 April 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave rates on hold tomorrow: The Central Bank of Egypt is likely to leave interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee meets tomorrow, according to a poll of analysts conducted by Enterprise. Ten of 11 analysts polled expect the bank to leave interest rates\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/4\/4.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":560789,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/14\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-interest-rates-on-hold-this-thursday\/","url_meta":{"origin":571394,"position":3},"title":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave interest rates on hold this Thursday","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 March 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave interest rates on hold this Thursday: Rising global commodity prices and a pick-up in US treasury yields will likely mean that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave interest rates unchanged when its Monetary Policy Committee meets this Thursday, according to an Enterprise poll.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "POLL"","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/3\/183.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":572298,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/06\/21\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-leave-rates-on-hold-at-june-2020-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":571394,"position":4},"title":"Enterprise Poll: Central Bank of Egypt to leave rates on hold at June 2020 meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 June 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE seen leaving rates on hold this Thursday for third consecutive meeting: The Central Bank of Egypt will leave interest rates unchanged when its monetary policy committee meets this Thursday, according to an Enterprise poll. 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