{"id":571199,"date":"2020-05-04T03:51:38","date_gmt":"2020-05-04T03:51:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/04\/what-were-tracking-on-4-may-2020\/"},"modified":"2020-05-04T03:51:38","modified_gmt":"2020-05-04T03:51:38","slug":"what-were-tracking-on-4-may-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/04\/what-were-tracking-on-4-may-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"What we\u2019re tracking on 4 May 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"

Egypt took a big step last night toward the reopening of an economy <\/strong>that never went fully to sleep as the Madbouly government said it would allow hotels to re-open by mid-month for domestic tourism. We have full details on the state\u2019s drive to promote staycations in this morning\u2019s Speed Round, below.<\/p>\n

We\u2019re now at 3.5 mn cases of covid-19 globally<\/strong>, but the \u201crate of fatalities and new cases has slowed from peaks reached last month,\u201d Reuters<\/a>\u2019 tells us, adding that, \u201cNorth America and European countries accounted for most of the new cases reported in recent days, but numbers were rising from smaller bases in Latin America, Africa and Russia.\u201d<\/p>\n

Predicting the Future #1- We\u2019ve been wondering aloud for some time why certain <\/strong>countries are really hard hit by the virus <\/strong>that causes covid-19, while others \u2026 simply aren\u2019t. There are still no good answers. A recent roundup by the New York Times<\/a> offers everything from genetics to demographics by way of government policy and simple luck as possible explanations.<\/p>\n

With prospects of a second, deadlier wave this fall (see: 1918, the pandemic of) and a <\/strong>third <\/strong>wave next year<\/strong>, we\u2019d all do well to keep in mind Harvard health expert Ashish Jha\u2019s words of wisdom, as American as they sound: \u201cWe are really early in this disease. If this were a baseball game, it would be the second inning and there\u2019s no reason to think that by the ninth inning the rest of the world that looks now like it hasn\u2019t been affected won\u2019t become like other places.\u201d<\/p>\n

Predicting the Future #2- What do markets want? <\/strong>The Financial Times argues that a pandemic-induced slump in demand and the Great Oil War of 2020 may have hastened the approach of peak oil<\/a><\/strong>, while the Wall Street Journal notes that the earnings apocalypse and an unprecedented slowdown in global growth are \u201cso obscuring the outlook for financial markets that <\/strong>some investors say it is as if they are flying blind<\/a><\/strong>.\u201d<\/p>\n

Oh, and the notion of immunity passports? <\/strong>The science still doesn\u2019t back up the idea<\/a>. Still, Switzerland\u2019s Roche has gotten FDA approval for an antibody test for exposure to the virus that causes covid-19, according to a company statement<\/a>. The company says it could have \u201chigh double-digit\u201d mns of tests ready to deploy this month.<\/p>\n

\n

The EGX30 closed down 3.4% yesterday <\/strong>as shares in Egypt caught up with the Friday sell-off in US markets \u2014 and were dragged down by a slump in regional equities led by Saudi Arabia, where the Tadawul plunged 7.4%. Saudi\u2019s main index tumbled after the kingdom\u2019s finance minister said over the weekend that strict fiscal measures<\/a> would be needed to face down fallout from covid-19 and the recent slump in oil prices.<\/p>\n

M<\/strong>arkets today: <\/strong>It\u2019s the start of the trading week in global markets, and shares in South Korea, Hong Kong, and Japan opened sharply lower amid fears that tensions between Beijing and Washington are again flaring after the US alleged the virus that causes covid-19 originated in a Chinese research lab (we have more on this below). Chinese shares were up as we headed toward dispatch this morning, while futures point to US and European equities opening in the red <\/strong>later today.<\/p>\n

We have more on what the month of May could have in store for global stocks<\/strong> and risky assets in this morning\u2019s Macro Picture, below.<\/p>\n

\n

So, when do we eat? <\/strong>Maghrib prayers are at 6:34pm and you\u2019ll have until 3:33am to finish caffeinating. Fajr is coming one minute earlier every day through the end of the Holy Month.<\/p>\n

COVID-19 IN EGYPT-<\/strong><\/p>\n

Egypt has now disclosed a total of 6,465 confirmed cases of covid-19<\/strong> after the Health Ministry reported 272 new infections yesterday. The ministry also said that another 14 people had died from the virus, taking the death toll to 429. We now have a total of 2,041 confirmed cases that have since tested negative for the virus after being hospitalized or isolated, of whom 1,562 have fully recovered.<\/p>\n

<\/a> EBRD could open lines of credit worth a combined USD 850 mn for five unnamed local <\/strong>banks as part of covid-19 assistance package <\/strong>that would help plug liquidity gaps and support SMEs and businesses in industries hard-hit by covid-19, according to Al-Mal<\/a>. The NBE and Banque Misr had submitted requests last month<\/a> for help from the EBRD to help shore up their liquidity positions. The newspaper says the funding would be targeted to industries hardest-hit by covid-19 including tourism as well as front-line sectors including transport, agriculture and producers of medical supplies.<\/p>\n

The court system began the slow process of reopening yesterday<\/strong>, with criminal courts set to operate two days a week instead of six and focusing on hearings to decide on the extension of pretrial detention orders, Youm7<\/a> reports. Criminal and family courts alike will also focus on handing down final rulings in cases where verdicts had been reached, but postponed by the corona-induced shutdown. Appeals courts will also tiptoe back into session, but neither appellants nor the public will be allowed in open court. The nation\u2019s courts had been closed since 15 March.<\/p>\n

Make sure you keep up with your kid\u2019s vaccination schedule<\/strong>, Unicef warns, suggesting that as many as 10 mn children under the age of five across the Middle East are at risk of missing out on polio vaccinations and another 4.5 mn may miss out measles vaccinations as healthcare efforts are being diverted to treating covid-19, the UAE\u2019s The National<\/a> reports.<\/p>\n

DONATIONS-<\/strong><\/p>\n

Al-Ahram Beverages has donated EGP 5.6 mn to the government<\/strong>, in addition to providing ethanol supplies to the Unified Procurement Authority to produce disinfectants and sanitizers for hospitals and medical facilities, according to Youm7<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Cairo Festival City mall and Misr El Kheir Foundation have launched an initiative to <\/strong>support service workers in hospitals and quarantine facilities<\/strong>, according to a statement carried by the domestic press<\/a>. The initiative aims to donate Ramadan provisions to 20k workers.<\/p>\n

ON THE GLOBAL FRONT-<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s all China\u2019s Fault\u201d: <\/strong>US policymakers are ramping up rhetoric claiming that the virus that causes covid-19 escaped from a lab in China. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said yesterday that \u201cenormous evidence\u201d points to SARS-CoV-2 originated in a research lab in Wuhan, while The Donald suggested obliquely that \u201cI think they made a very horrible mistake,\u201d adding, \u201cThey tried to cover it.\u201d Bloomberg<\/a> and the New York Times<\/a> have the story.<\/p>\n

\"enterprise\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The Warren Buffett Show is still commanding the attention of the global financial press <\/strong>a little more than a day after Berkshire Hathaway held its AGM via videoconference. You can watch the full, epic live stream here (watch, runtime: 5:23:49<\/a>), catch a cutdown version on video (watch, runtime: 15:31<\/a>) or get the highlights in the Financial Times<\/a>, Reuters<\/a>, Bloomberg<\/a> or CNBC<\/a>. The Coles \/ Cliffs Notes version: \u201cThe pandemic can\u2019t stop Amreeka \u2014 or Berkshire. But I\u2019ve sold all my airline stock.\u201d <\/strong>The meeting included a call-in question from none other than actor Bill Murray.<\/p>\n

Developed economies could be hit by a \u201csecond wave of job losses,\u201d <\/strong>despite governments moving to ease lockdown measures, says the Financial Times<\/a>, as some businesses revisit their ability to cope with continued social distancing.<\/p>\n

US and European banks are getting ready to set aside over USD 50 bn in loan loss <\/strong>provisions for the first quarter,<\/strong> \u201can indication of the severe economic damage wrought by coronavirus,\u201d according to the FT<\/a>. US-based banks are the most cautious, booking USD 25 bn for bad loans, up 350% y-o-y.<\/p>\n

US 1Q2020 earnings season continues this week: <\/strong>InvestorPlace<\/a> has a list of seven to keep an eye on \u2014 including Disney, PayPall, Uber, the once great Activision Blizzard<\/a>, Canada\u2019s Shopify<\/a>, beer giant AB InBev<\/a>, and pharma chain CVS Health<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia is <\/strong>cautiously rolling back lockdown measures<\/a><\/strong> just as <\/strong>plummeting crude oil prices have left Saudi\u2019s bonds more vulnerable<\/strong> than neighboring Abu Dhabi and Qatar, Vanguard Asset Management reps tell Bloomberg<\/a>. We noted yesterday<\/a> that investors were mostly bearish on Saudi stocks and mixed on those in the UAE, according to a Reuters poll.<\/p>\n

Saudi is under pressure to push fiscal reforms instead of abandoning its peg to the <\/strong>USD<\/strong>, Goldman Sachs suggests in a research report picked up by Bloomberg<\/a> wherein the bulge bracket bank says it sees oil at USD 40 \/ bbl by the end of this year and USD 60 by the end of 2021. If oil stays at USD 30 with the FX rate unchanged, KSA would face substantial pressure to abandon the peg lest it run reserves dry.<\/p>\n

\"enterprise\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Are we looking at the return of inflation><\/strong> That\u2019s what some analysts are expecting as policymakers take measures that, along with supply chain disruptions and the release of pent-up consumer demand, may \u201cstoke inflation\u201d once lockdown measures are lifted, according to Bloomberg<\/a>. Although a contained uptick in prices would actually be welcome for some economies, others \u2014 particularly developing countries \u2014 would likely struggle to contain inflation in the aftermath of the pandemic.<\/p>\n

\"enterprise\"<\/p>\n

*** It\u2019s Blackboard day:<\/strong> We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed. Blackboard appears every Monday in Enterprise in the place of our traditional industry news roundups.<\/p>\n

In today\u2019s issue:<\/strong> As Egypt settles in for a month of heavy prime-time TV watching, we ask whether film and TV accurately depict the realities of private education in Egypt.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Egypt took a big step last night toward the reopening of an economy that never went fully to sleep as the Madbouly government said it would allow hotels to re-open by mid-month for domestic tourism. We have full details on the state\u2019s drive to promote staycations in this morning\u2019s Speed Round, below. We\u2019re now at […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7204],"tags":[317,107,73,72,819,274,182,803,777,69,112,563],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-571199","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-what-were-tracking-today","tag-commodities","tag-covid-19","tag-education","tag-enterpriseam","tag-fuel","tag-house-of-representatives","tag-inflation","tag-royal-dutch-shell","tag-supply-ministry","tag-tax","tag-uk","tag-wheat","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"3e895448-54e3-4f05-926c-8b776d6679a8","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[571197],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nWhat we\u2019re tracking on 4 May 2020 - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/04\/what-were-tracking-on-4-may-2020\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What we\u2019re tracking on 4 May 2020\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Egypt took a big step last night toward the reopening of an economy that never went fully to sleep as the Madbouly government said it would allow hotels to re-open by mid-month for domestic tourism. 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Next week we\u2019re being treated to a four-day week courtesy of the 23 July Revolution, with Eid Al Adha likely starting the following Thursday on 30 July.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":569823,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/09\/what-were-tracking-on-9-march-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":571199,"position":1},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 9 March 2020","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 March 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s shaping up to be an ugly day. Covid-19 infections continue their slow-burn spread in Egypt and global markets are reeling after Saudi and Russia locked horns in an oil war that has sent crude prices down 30%. Throw in 16 mn Italians now living under travel restrictions and fears\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":572343,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/06\/22\/what-were-tracking-on-21-june-2020-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":571199,"position":2},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 21 June 2020","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 June 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s a deceptively slow news day, ladies and gentlemen, with few \u201cbig\u201d business \/ finance \/ econ stories vying for headlines as attention is squarely on the trifecta that is covid-19, the breakdown of GERD talks with Ethiopia, and the spectre of military intervention in Libya. It\u2019s an even slower\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":572839,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/07\/12\/what-were-tracking-on-12-july-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":571199,"position":3},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking on 12 July 2020","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 July 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Good morning, friends, and welcome to another workweek. Oddly enough, we love writing to you on Sundays, but that\u2019s not why we\u2019re so chipper this morning. So what gives? #1- We have two short weeks coming up. We\u2019re off a week from Thursday in observance of the anniversary of the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":628619,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/05\/09\/what-were-tracking-this-week-19\/","url_meta":{"origin":571199,"position":4},"title":"What we\u2019re tracking this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 May 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation numbers should come out on or about this Thursday, 10 May. This month is all the more significant as the central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee will meet on 17 May to set interest rates.","rel":"","context":"In "What We\u2019re Tracking This Week"","block_context":{"text":"What We\u2019re Tracking This Week","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-this-week\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":645391,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/07\/19\/is-the-investor-love-affair-with-emerging-markets-bonds-running-out-of-steam\/","url_meta":{"origin":571199,"position":5},"title":"Is the investor love affair with emerging markets bonds running out of steam?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 July 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Is the investor love affair with emerging market bonds running out of steam? Bloomberg\u2019s Lyubov Pronina thinks so, writing that the longest run of inflows in four years is in jeopardy as appetite declines. Net inflows to the asset class fell more than two thirds to USD 200 mn last\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "What We're Tracking Today"","block_context":{"text":"What We're Tracking Today","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/what-were-tracking-today\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2017\/7\/843.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/571199","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=571199"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/571199\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/571197"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=571199"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=571199"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=571199"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=571199"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=571199"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}