{"id":570911,"date":"2020-04-22T04:26:14","date_gmt":"2020-04-22T04:26:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/22\/egypts-reforms-could-shield-the-economy-from-covid-19-shocks-moodys\/"},"modified":"2020-04-22T04:26:14","modified_gmt":"2020-04-22T04:26:14","slug":"egypts-reforms-could-shield-the-economy-from-covid-19-shocks-moodys","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/22\/egypts-reforms-could-shield-the-economy-from-covid-19-shocks-moodys\/","title":{"rendered":"Egypt\u2019s reforms could shield the economy from covid-19 shocks -Moody\u2019s"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Egypt\u2019s reforms could shield the economy from covid-19 shocks<\/strong> -Moody\u2019s:<\/strong> Egypt\u2019s track record of economic reform commitment and strong FX reserves are expected to shield its credit rating from shocks caused by the covid-19 pandemic, Moody\u2019s said in a credit opinion last week (pdf)<\/a>. The ratings agency says remaining committed to reform measures moving forward could help Egypt achieve \u201chigher sustained growth\u201d levels down the road. By continuing to narrow its current account deficit, the country \u201cmay also reduce the economy\u2019s borrowing needs and shore up resilience to changing financing conditions,\u201d Moody\u2019s says.<\/p>\n

FX reserves act as a bulwark against EM outflows:<\/strong> Meanwhile, a \u201cbroad domestic funding base\u201d and the country\u2019s strong FX reserves, which can cover six months\u2019 worth of imports \u201cprovide buffers against significant capital outflows from emerging markets in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic,\u201d the ratings agency said. Moody\u2019s notes that Egypt\u2019s banking sector is also acting as \u201ca deep and stable domestic funding base\u201d that will further support the country\u2019s external liquidity.<\/p>\n

On the flipside, Moody\u2019s points to Egypt\u2019s debt affordability as a major point of weakness<\/strong> that leaves the country\u2019s credit profile \u201cvulnerable to a sharp and sustained tightening in financing conditions.\u201d Based on this weakness, Moody\u2019s has scored Egypt\u2019s fiscal strength at \u201cca\u201d \u2014 the lowest score on its overall scorecard.<\/p>\n

That said, the ratings agency expects our debt-to-GDP ratio to continue declining this fiscal year<\/strong>, even when accounting for the expected shock impact covid-19 will have on our growth and fiscal position. Moody\u2019s forecasts general government debt as a percentage of GDP dipping to 82.6% in FY2019-2020, down from 84.2% in FY2018-2019, before rising again during the upcoming fiscal year to 83%.<\/p>\n

Unemployment, inflation could drive down credit rating:<\/strong> The ratings agency says \u201csocial pressures\u201d resulting from youth unemployment, inflation, and \u201clingering susceptibility to political event risks\u201d continue to pose credit challenges, particularly as inflation would drive up the cost of government debt.<\/p>\n

enterprise<\/p>\n

Egypt\u2019s current account deficit is seen widening by the end of the current fiscal year on the back of tourism revenues and remittances falling sharply<\/strong>, which the agency says would \u201cmore than offset\u201d the lower expenditure on oil as prices drop. Moody\u2019s sees the current account deficit coming in at 4.5% in FY2019-2020 before narrowing again to 3.6% in FY2020-2021.<\/p>\n

The impact of covid-19 will be most pronounced in the next fiscal year:<\/strong> The fall in tourism, coupled with disruptions in investment and trade, will drive down growth to 4.4% in FY2019-2020 and 2.7% in FY2020-2021, Moody\u2019s says.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Egypt\u2019s reforms could shield the economy from covid-19 shocks -Moody\u2019s: Egypt\u2019s track record of economic reform commitment and strong FX reserves are expected to shield its credit rating from shocks caused by the covid-19 pandemic, Moody\u2019s said in a credit opinion last week (pdf). The ratings agency says remaining committed to reform measures moving forward […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[107,799,7106,104,115,72,655,348,1324,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-570911","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-covid-19","tag-credit-rating","tag-debt","tag-economy","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-reserves","tag-gdp","tag-moodys","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"74474d14-3c21-4192-8954-351e498ab09d","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[570906],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nEgypt\u2019s reforms could shield the economy from covid-19 shocks -Moody\u2019s - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/22\/egypts-reforms-could-shield-the-economy-from-covid-19-shocks-moodys\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Egypt\u2019s reforms could shield the economy from covid-19 shocks -Moody\u2019s\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Egypt\u2019s reforms could shield the economy from covid-19 shocks -Moody\u2019s: Egypt\u2019s track record of economic reform commitment and strong FX reserves are expected to shield its credit rating from shocks caused by the covid-19 pandemic, Moody\u2019s said in a credit opinion last week (pdf). 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due to \u201congoing credit strengths and challenges\u201d that it says are unlikely to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/116.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":558197,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/08\/01\/moodys-still-likes-egypt-sees-economy-growing-5-5-this-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":570911,"position":1},"title":"Moody\u2019s still likes Egypt, sees economy growing 5.5% this year","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"1 August 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Moody\u2019s has affirmed Egypt\u2019s credit rating at B2 with a stable outlook that balances the country\u2019s \u201csignificant shock exposure\u201d with our track record of successfully weathering volatility, the ratings agency said in its latest review of Egypt\u2019s credit rating on Thursday.The rationale: The country\u2019s \u201cvolatile financing conditions,\u201d due to \u201cvery\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/8\/31.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570238,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/24\/strong-fx-reserves-fiscal-reform-to-mitigate-short-term-headwinds-on-egypts-external-account-fitch-ratings\/","url_meta":{"origin":570911,"position":2},"title":"Strong FX reserves, fiscal reform to mitigate short-term headwinds on Egypt\u2019s external account -Fitch Ratings","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 March 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Strong FX reserves, fiscal reform to mitigate short-term headwinds on Egypt\u2019s external account -Fitch Ratings: Strong international reserves and the government\u2019s fiscal reforms will help to mitigate the impact of the covid-19 shock on Egypt\u2019s credit position, but the fallout will nonetheless have a significant impact on the country\u2019s GDP\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/270.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":574253,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/09\/03\/egypt-could-get-an-upgrade-from-moodys-as-our-credit-profile-proves-resilient-to-shocks\/","url_meta":{"origin":570911,"position":3},"title":"Egypt could get an upgrade from Moody\u2019s as our credit profile proves \u201cresilient\u201d to shocks","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"3 September 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt could get an upgrade from Moody\u2019s as our credit profile proves \u201cresilient\u201d to shocks: Indicators that measure Egypt\u2019s credit worthiness have proven \u201cbroadly resilient\u201d to external financing shocks despite high exposure, Moody\u2019s said in a report. This profile, which gives the country a solid credit rating of B2 with\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/9\/36.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":581328,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/02\/08\/moodys-downgrades-egypts-credit-rating-for-first-time-since-2013\/","url_meta":{"origin":570911,"position":4},"title":"Moody\u2019s downgrades Egypt\u2019s credit rating for first time since 2013","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 February 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Due to reduced external buffers and shock absorption capacity","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/EGP-1600.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":568022,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/15\/strength-in-diversity\/","url_meta":{"origin":570911,"position":5},"title":"Strength in diversity","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 December 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Underpinned by a diversified economy, Egypt\u2019s economic strength supports our B2 issuer credit rating, Moody\u2019s said in a periodic review of Egypt\u2019s credit rating, which does not involve a rating or outlook update. Egypt\u2019s credit rating remains at B2 with a stable outlook. \u201cRelatively weak but improving\u201d governance indicators are\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/269.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/570911","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=570911"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/570911\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/570906"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=570911"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=570911"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=570911"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=570911"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=570911"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}