{"id":570425,"date":"2020-03-31T04:31:53","date_gmt":"2020-03-31T04:31:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/31\/are-emerging-markets-about-to-impose-capital-controls\/"},"modified":"2020-03-31T04:31:53","modified_gmt":"2020-03-31T04:31:53","slug":"are-emerging-markets-about-to-impose-capital-controls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/31\/are-emerging-markets-about-to-impose-capital-controls\/","title":{"rendered":"Are emerging markets about to impose capital controls?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-07\"><\/a> <strong>Are emerging markets about the slap on capital controls? <\/strong>Emerging market economies are witnessing a collapse in external financing, with indications that outflows from EM bond and equity funds of the last three weeks exceeded 4% of net asset value. Normal protocol would see EM policymakers respond by selling reserves and allowing their currencies to devalue, but with the spread of covid-19 putting us all in uncharted territory, policymakers are reticent about selling USD. The answer could well be capital controls, writes David Lubin, Citi\u2019s head of emerging markets economics, in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/ca5d9024-a92d-473c-b3bd-2df16f04e6bf\">the Financial Times<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Risk is going up, but certain risk premium measures are going down:<\/strong> Public debt burdens in EMs are increasing, either because of automatic fiscal stabilizers or because of measures taken to protect citizens from the economic fallout of covid-19, says Lubin. But at the same time, some aspects of the risk premium are going down along with monetary policy easing by central banks. So while a given country\u2019s domestic economy might benefit from lower rates, <strong>preventing large capital outflows may require higher interest rates<\/strong> \u2014 especially with rising debt burdens.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Some EM may decide it\u2019s best to just close up shop for the duration:<\/strong> This could see countries defaulting on debt or imposing restrictions on domestic banks\u2019 ability to sell USD through taxes, differential exchange rates or even bans. These measures are all the more likely thanks to the IMF\u2019s increased flexibility on the subject of capital movement restrictions and the probability that the Trump administration would not support measures to boost international liquidity, such as new <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/About\/Factsheets\/Sheets\/2016\/08\/01\/14\/51\/Special-Drawing-Right-SDR\">Special Drawing Rights<\/a> for member countries, Lubin says.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Egypt has managed to avoid the worst of this, so far:<\/strong> We\u2019ve already <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/f85862cc-75c8-4f46-b605-c6f11ad400d1\">seen analysts predict<\/a> that the central bank\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/f2e78eb3-6978-4eb5-a04f-a3b7247293ed\">emergency 300 bps rate cut<\/a> two weeks ago is likely to accelerate outflows of foreign debt securities, but for the moment <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/f2e78eb3-6978-4eb5-a04f-a3b7247293ed\">EGP debt still remains<\/a> \u201crelatively attractive.\u201d But as we remain in a covid-19 lockdown, which <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/d8ec5fe5-d2b1-4330-aa69-364205859929\">Renaissance Capital predicts<\/a> we may struggle to finance, the question of how long we can sustain these heavy outflows remains answered.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Are emerging markets about the slap on capital controls? Emerging market economies are witnessing a collapse in external financing, with indications that outflows from EM bond and equity funds of the last three weeks exceeded 4% of net asset value. Normal protocol would see EM policymakers respond by selling reserves and allowing their currencies to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":570426,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9272],"tags":[380,115,72,655,272,349,1510],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-570425","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-macro-picture","tag-currencies","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-reserves","tag-imf","tag-interest-rates","tag-the-macro-picture","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"0d9b0bec-1b9d-4c0e-98d1-d2110a582941","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/355.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[570408],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Are emerging markets about to impose capital controls? - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/31\/are-emerging-markets-about-to-impose-capital-controls\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Are emerging markets about to impose capital controls?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Are emerging markets about the slap on capital controls? Emerging market economies are witnessing a collapse in external financing, with indications that outflows from EM bond and equity funds of the last three weeks exceeded 4% of net asset value. 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Fed rate cut -Bloomberg survey: Emerging market equities, bonds, and currencies will reap the benefits if the world\u2019s major central banks go ahead with expected rate cuts, according to a quarterly poll of 42 fund managers, traders, and strategists conducted by Bloomberg.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/7\/2360.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":566246,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/06\/rising-us-inflation-a-worry-for-emerging-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":570425,"position":1},"title":"Rising US inflation a worry for emerging markets","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 June 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Heightened inflation in the US is likely to spell trouble for emerging economies as rising yields squeezes countries with hefty debt loads and precarious public finances, analysts tell the Financial Times. \u201cEmerging economies should be worrying more about US inflation than about their own,\u201d Tatiana Lysenko, lead economist for emerging\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":601448,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/02\/28\/ems-beginning-to-boom\/","url_meta":{"origin":570425,"position":2},"title":"EMs beginning to boom?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 February 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"EM inflows in January could signal the start of a boom period for developing economies, CrossBorder Capital MD Michael Howell argues in a piece for the FT. 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Comments made recently by IMF bigwigs suggest that the fund may be relenting on its neoliberal formula as a one-size-fits-all prescription for distressed emerging economies, Steve Johnson writes in the Financial Times. Why the shift in thinking? There\u2019s a growing recognition within\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/117.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":591667,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/12\/12\/how-do-analysts-feel-about-emerging-markets-going-into-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":570425,"position":4},"title":"How do analysts feel about emerging markets going into 2020?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 December 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"How do analysts feel about emerging markets going into 2020? Emerging markets are set to outperform developed markets in 2020, predict 57 global investors, traders and strategists in a Bloomberg survey, with all assets \u2014 currencies, stocks, and bonds \u2014 having rallied this year after 2018\u2019s EM Zombie Apocalypse. Total\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/12\/2354.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":597046,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/07\/15\/does-currency-devaluation-actually-increase-exports-in-emerging-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":570425,"position":5},"title":"Does currency devaluation actually increase exports in emerging markets?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 July 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Currency devaluation increases exports, right? Not always. The depreciation of emerging-market currencies may actually result in falling exports, research by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) and the FT suggests. Conventional wisdom tells us that a weakening currency makes exporters more competitive in the international market, causing an increase in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/7\/980.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/570425","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=570425"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/570425\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/570408"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/570426"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=570425"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=570425"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=570425"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=570425"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=570425"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}