{"id":570358,"date":"2020-03-29T04:13:09","date_gmt":"2020-03-29T04:13:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/29\/heavy-net-outflows-from-em-bond-funds-continue-but-could-brighter-days-follow\/"},"modified":"2020-03-29T04:13:09","modified_gmt":"2020-03-29T04:13:09","slug":"heavy-net-outflows-from-em-bond-funds-continue-but-could-brighter-days-follow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/29\/heavy-net-outflows-from-em-bond-funds-continue-but-could-brighter-days-follow\/","title":{"rendered":"Heavy net outflows from EM bond funds continue, but could brighter days follow?"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Emerging market bond funds are continuing to see heavy net outflows<\/strong>, as investors seek to dump debt amid the economic turmoil resulting from covid-19, the Financial Times reports<\/a>. Data from EPFR Global shows that EM bond outflows hit USD 17 bn in the week leading up to 25 March, following a record USD 18.8 bn the week before. Outflows in the past four weeks hit USD 47.7 bn, the equivalent of 10.2% of all assets under management. Asset dumping has now erased a third of the USD 140 bn of net inflows to EM bonds that took place over the past four years, according to Bank of America, and for the first time since the start of the crisis, the outflow from local-currency EM bond funds exceeds that exiting hard-currency vehicles.<\/p>\n

March has seen a rapid turnaround for EM bonds once termed \u201cimmune to coronavirus.\u201d<\/strong> EM bonds were holding up well at the beginning of March, supported by investors\u2019 continuing search for yield, according to Absolute Strategy Research economist Adam Wolfe<\/a>. But amid the global slowdown, investors have been rushing to dump EM assets and seek the safety of cash. The sell-off \u2014 which far exceeds that seen at the beginning of the 2008 financial crisis \u2014 will see households, businesses and governments starved of credit, according to International Institute of Finance Chief Economist Robin Brooks<\/a>.<\/p>\n

What does this mean for Egypt?<\/strong> Just months ago, Egypt was considered a highly promising market, thanks to the real interest rate on our bonds, which in November last year<\/a> stood at 9.42%, far exceeding the Turkish bond yields in second place at 5.14%. But the central bank\u2019semergency 300 bps rate cut<\/a> two weeks ago is likely to accelerate outflows of foreign debt securities, according to EFG Hermes economist Mohamed Abu Basha. Despite this, EGP debt remains \u201crelatively attractive,\u201d according to HC Securities\u2019 Monette Doss<\/a>. Yields on Egyptian government debt will offer a 0.95% real interest rate (accounting for the 3% rate reduction and HC\u2019s forecast for 9% inflation through 2020) compared to 0% for Turkey, she said.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s the worst 1Q on record for EM debt fund outflows, but there could be brighter days ahead.<\/strong> While JPMorgan\u2019s core index of hard currency-denominated debt is down 10.9% this year, outflows for EM bonds still haven\u2019t reached the levels seen in other periods of turmoil, according to Morgan Stanley. Total EM sovereign issuance for March 2020 is down to USD 4 bn from USD 31 bn in March 2019. But some EM governments, including Panama, Latvia and Israel, did sell new bonds this week, which analysts see as an encouraging sign. And while investors are waiting for a weakening USD and a clearer idea of how the covid-19 crisis will develop in the southern hemisphere before returning to the asset class, the US government\u2019s USD 2.2 tn stimulus package and global central bank liquidity measures do seem to be bolstering confidence and supporting risk appetite.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Emerging market bond funds are continuing to see heavy net outflows, as investors seek to dump debt amid the economic turmoil resulting from covid-19, the Financial Times reports. Data from EPFR Global shows that EM bond outflows hit USD 17 bn in the week leading up to 25 March, following a record USD 18.8 bn […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":570359,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9272],"tags":[541,107,7106,115,72,125,1510],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-570358","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-macro-picture","tag-asset-management","tag-covid-19","tag-debt","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-investment-watch","tag-the-macro-picture","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"f85862cc-75c8-4f46-b605-c6f11ad400d1","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/324.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[570340],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nHeavy net outflows from EM bond funds continue, but could brighter days follow? - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/29\/heavy-net-outflows-from-em-bond-funds-continue-but-could-brighter-days-follow\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Heavy net outflows from EM bond funds continue, but could brighter days follow?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Emerging market bond funds are continuing to see heavy net outflows, as investors seek to dump debt amid the economic turmoil resulting from covid-19, the Financial Times reports. 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EM equities are up\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/3\/1001.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598221,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/19\/sharp-downturn-for-em-assets-amid-global-volatility\/","url_meta":{"origin":570358,"position":2},"title":"Sharp downturn for EM assets amid global volatility","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 May 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cThe trade war has sunk emerging markets. There's more to come.\u201d \u2014Welcome to the new narrative on EM. May has been a bad month for EM bonds, equities and currencies \u2014 and it could get worse as stalled US-China trade talks prolong uncertainty in the market.Off the proverbial cliff? EM\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/5\/2220.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570425,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/31\/are-emerging-markets-about-to-impose-capital-controls\/","url_meta":{"origin":570358,"position":3},"title":"Are emerging markets about to impose capital controls?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"31 March 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Are emerging markets about the slap on capital controls? Emerging market economies are witnessing a collapse in external financing, with indications that outflows from EM bond and equity funds of the last three weeks exceeded 4% of net asset value. Normal protocol would see EM policymakers respond by selling reserves\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/355.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":549852,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/10\/03\/em-bond-funds-see-massive-outflows-amid-risk-off-wave-stronger-usd\/","url_meta":{"origin":570358,"position":4},"title":"EM bond funds see massive outflows amid risk-off wave, stronger USD","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"3 October 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Emerging-market bond funds have seen a record USD 70 bn of outflows so far this year, with investors pulling USD 4.2 bn in the past week alone, the Financial Times reports citing JPMorgan\u2019s analysis of EPFR Global data. Emerging markets are up against a continuing surge in interest rates in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":554578,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/19\/sp-trims-em-growth-outlook-for-2022\/","url_meta":{"origin":570358,"position":5},"title":"S&P trims EM growth outlook for 2022","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 December 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Emerging markets are walking into the new year with a lower growth outlook from S&P Global Ratings, which revised downwards its growth forecast for emerging markets by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5%. The ratings agency attributes the revision to the pandemic\u2019s overstay and a slowdown in China for the downgrade,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/12\/677.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/570358","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=570358"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/570358\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/570340"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/570359"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=570358"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=570358"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=570358"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=570358"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=570358"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}