{"id":570345,"date":"2020-03-29T04:13:09","date_gmt":"2020-03-29T04:13:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/29\/egypt-cuts-gdp-growth-forecast-to-5-1-from-5-6-in-fy-2019-2020\/"},"modified":"2020-03-29T04:13:09","modified_gmt":"2020-03-29T04:13:09","slug":"egypt-cuts-gdp-growth-forecast-to-5-1-from-5-6-in-fy-2019-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/29\/egypt-cuts-gdp-growth-forecast-to-5-1-from-5-6-in-fy-2019-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"Egypt cuts GDP growth forecast to 5.1% from 5.6% in FY 2019-2020"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Gov\u2019t revises downwards economic growth forecast this fiscal year to 5.1%:<\/strong> The government has cut its GDP growth forecast for the fiscal year ending in June 2020 to 5.1% from 5.6% as the covid-19 outbreak takes its toll on the global economy, said Planning Minister Hala El Said, according to Reuters<\/a>. Growth was already expected to slow to 5.2% in 3Q2019-2020 and to 4% in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year compared to 5.6% in 1H2019-2020<\/a>, itself a slower growth rate than the 6% targeted in the annual budget. The government had forecast GDP to grow at an annual clip of at least 5.5% over the next few years<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Cabinet has also revised its targets for the coming fiscal year:<\/strong> The economy is expected to grow at a 4.2% clip in FY2020-2021 \u2014 instead of an initially estimated 6% \u2014 if the pandemic is brought under control before the beginning of the new fiscal year in July. But if the crisis continues into the new year, growth could slow to as little as 3%, El Said said, according to a cabinet statement<\/a>.<\/p>\n

This is much more optimistic than what the analysts are projecting: <\/strong>Capital Economics<\/a> said last week that the economy will likely contract 1.3% this year before rebounding significantly to grow at a 7.8% clip in the coming fiscal year. Renaissance Capital also said last week<\/a> that the government\u2019s measures to contain the covid-19 outbreak \u2014 including imposing a nighttime curfew and partial closure of restaurants \u2014 could threaten 30% of Egypt\u2019s nominal GDP.<\/p>\n

Also revised in the upcoming fiscal year\u2019s budget:<\/strong> The council of ministers revised upward<\/a> its public debt target to 82.7% of GDP, from an initially targeted 80%, and raised the overall deficit to 6.3% from 6.2%<\/a>. The budget, which earned cabinet approval, will now be shipped to the House of Representatives, where the Planning and Budget Committee is set to begin reviewing it on 12 April<\/a>.<\/p>\n

EXCLUSIVE- Gov\u2019t starts planning best, worst case scenarios for economic outlook following covid-19 pandemic:<\/strong> The government sees the worst case scenario as the pandemic persisting until the end of December 2020, which would drive down Egypt\u2019s economic growth to 3.3-3.5% in FY2020-2021, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait tells Enterprise. The best case scenario would see the outbreak curbed by July, in which case the government expects GDP to grow at a 4.5-5% clip in the fiscal year running July 2020 through June 2021. A middle ground scenario, in which the crisis would end sometime between July and December, would deliver growth levels between 3.3% and 5%. The FY2020-2021 state budget has been amended according to this middle ground.<\/p>\n

The government would consider asking the IMF for new funding if necessary<\/strong> to finance its spending needs, Maait tells us. Egypt had previously ruled out signing up for a new loan from the IMF and was in talks<\/a> with the lender for a non-loan agreement following the expiry of the USD 12 bn Extended Fund Facility. The extenuating circumstances created by the crisis means the government is obliged to revisit all its options to cover its finances, the minister says.<\/p>\n

How individual industries are expected to fare:<\/strong> Once the economy cools down, it naturally takes time for the wheels to start turning again, particularly as many industries are interconnected and driven by consumer demand, which falls during times of recession, the minister tells us. Maait expects tourism \u2014 the most negatively affected industry in Egypt so far \u2014 to take a year to stage a full recovery. Other industries would also take some time to get back on track, but tourism is expected to have the longest recovery period since global spending on tourism post-covid will likely be minimal. Maait also pointed out that the cancellation of this year\u2019s initial travel exhibitions, during which tourism companies in Egypt typically sign agreements and partnerships for the year ahead, means the industry has missed out on a year\u2019s worth of potential agreements.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gov\u2019t revises downwards economic growth forecast this fiscal year to 5.1%: The government has cut its GDP growth forecast for the fiscal year ending in June 2020 to 5.1% from 5.6% as the covid-19 outbreak takes its toll on the global economy, said Planning Minister Hala El Said, according to Reuters. Growth was already expected […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":570346,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[1433,107,104,72,276,348,277,678,2380,278],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-570345","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-capital-economics","tag-covid-19","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-finance-ministry","tag-gdp","tag-mohamed-maait","tag-planning-ministry","tag-speed-round","tag-state-budget","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"fdd06f40-e2ad-4243-a831-86f9dcf7a60c","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/320.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[570340],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nEgypt cuts GDP growth forecast to 5.1% from 5.6% in FY 2019-2020 - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/29\/egypt-cuts-gdp-growth-forecast-to-5-1-from-5-6-in-fy-2019-2020\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Egypt cuts GDP growth forecast to 5.1% from 5.6% in FY 2019-2020\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Gov\u2019t revises downwards economic growth forecast this fiscal year to 5.1%: The government has cut its GDP growth forecast for the fiscal year ending in June 2020 to 5.1% from 5.6% as the covid-19 outbreak takes its toll on the global economy, said Planning Minister Hala El Said, according to Reuters. 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The document makes explicit that the ministry will revisit its growth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":597714,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/02\/govt-revises-downwards-fy2018-19-growth-forecast-to-5-6\/","url_meta":{"origin":570345,"position":1},"title":"Gov\u2019t revises downwards FY2018-19 growth forecast to 5.6%","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 May 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"EXCLUSIVE- FinMin revises FY2018-2019 growth forecast to 5.6%: The Finance Ministry has revised downwards its growth forecast for FY2018-2019 to 5.6%, down from 5.8% previously, according to an official document seen by Enterprise. The budget deficit declined during the first nine months of the fiscal year to 5.3%, compared to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/276.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570560,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/06\/small-companies-can-collect-overdue-export-subsidies-without-proving-theyre-right-with-the-tax-authority\/","url_meta":{"origin":570345,"position":2},"title":"Small companies can collect overdue export subsidies without proving they\u2019re right with the Tax Authority","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 April 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"CABINET WATCH- Small companies can collect overdue export subsidies without proving they\u2019re right with the Tax Authority: The Madbouly Cabinet will pay out export subsidy arrears to small companies owed less than EGP 5 mn without requiring official documents proving they have cleared their taxes, according to a cabinet statement.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":569315,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/02\/20\/egypts-gdp-growth-reached-5-6-in-1h2019-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":570345,"position":3},"title":"Egypt's GDP growth reached 5.6% in 1H2019-2020","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 February 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt's economy grew at a 5.6% clip in 1H2019-2020, Planning Minister Hala El Saidtold cabinet yesterday. Retail was the primary driver of growth during the first six months of the fiscal year, accounting for 14.7% of the period\u2019s economic expansion, followed by the industrial sector (12.6%) and agriculture (12%). The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/2\/262.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":555712,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/11\/24\/govt-upgrades-2021-2022-growth-forecast\/","url_meta":{"origin":570345,"position":4},"title":"Gov\u2019t upgrades 2021-2022 growth forecast","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 November 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The government is predicting growth of 5.6% in the current 2021-2022 fiscal year, Planning Minister Hala El Said said at EFG Hermes\u2019 Egypt Day conference yesterday, according to a ministry statement. The projection marks an upwards revision of a previous prediction for 5.4% growth.The state is slightly more optimistic on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":543432,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/02\/01\/govt-ups-2021-2022-growth-forecast-to-6\/","url_meta":{"origin":570345,"position":5},"title":"Gov\u2019t ups 2021-2022 growth forecast to 6%","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"1 February 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Gov\u2019t ups growth forecast: The Planning Ministry has upgraded its FY2021-2022 growth forecast for the Egyptian economy to 6% or more, from 5.6%, minister Hala El Said told Bloomberg Asharq yesterday.This would be almost double last year\u2019s growth: The economy grew 3.3% during FY 2020-2021, according to official figures.The forecast\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/2\/3.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/570345","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=570345"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/570345\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/570340"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/570346"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=570345"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=570345"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=570345"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=570345"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=570345"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}