{"id":570177,"date":"2020-03-22T04:20:28","date_gmt":"2020-03-22T04:20:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/22\/em-economies-are-under-stress-as-investors-dump-debt-flock-to-rising-usd\/"},"modified":"2020-03-22T04:20:28","modified_gmt":"2020-03-22T04:20:28","slug":"em-economies-are-under-stress-as-investors-dump-debt-flock-to-rising-usd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/22\/em-economies-are-under-stress-as-investors-dump-debt-flock-to-rising-usd\/","title":{"rendered":"EM economies are under stress as investors dump debt, flock to rising USD"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-08\"><\/a> <strong>EM economies under stress as investors dump debt, flock to rising USD:<\/strong> Emerging market debt and equity outflows have hit USD 78 bn in the two months since the start of the covid-19 crisis in January, with investors rushing to snap up cash as a safe haven asset, Jonathan Wheatley <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/69fc6e2a-69d3-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75\">writes for the Financial Times<\/a>. The outflows recorded over the past two months are more than triple the amount seen in the three months following the beginning of the global financial crisis in September 2008, according to the International Institute of Finance (IIF). The sell-off \u201camounts to a \u2018sudden stop\u2019 in funding and will cause a sharp tightening in financial conditions, leaving households, businesses and governments starved of credit,\u201d says IIF Chief Economist Robin Brooks.<\/p>\n<p><strong>EM currencies have also fallen against the greenback, while the yield premium on USD sovereign debt in EMs over US government bonds has spiked<\/strong>, Avantika Chilkoti writes for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/emerging-markets-take-hit-as-investors-flee-for-safety-11584529200\">the Wall Street Journal<\/a>. The yield spread has widened to more than five percentage points, from just above three percentage points four weeks ago. The difficulties in trading EM bonds is evident in a discount on the net asset value in the market, such as the JPMorgan USD emerging markets bond ETF, which was trading last week at 96% of net asset value. \u201cSuch a discount is unusual and indicates investors are selling the exchange-traded fund faster than the fund can unload its holdings,\u201d Chilkoti writes.<\/p>\n<p><strong>But the bond market and debt burden may not be as big of a threat as the wider picture of overall economic damage<\/strong> from the covid-19 outbreak, says the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/f0b644d6-fed8-4402-b759-b0a1e68476a7\">FT\u2019s influential Lex column<\/a>. In comparison to 2013, when a rallying USD drove down EM bond prices as investors were concerned about defaults on USD-denominated debt, narrower current account deficits and stronger FX reserves mean EMs are better positioned today to handle the shock of falling bond prices. However, corporate earnings across EMs are expected to take a hit this year and JPMorgan has already said that EMs (excluding China) will slide into a recession in 1H2020.<\/p>\n<p><strong>On the bright side \u2014 the USD rally is losing steam (at least momentarily):<\/strong> The Bloomberg USD index <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2020-03-20\/dollar-slides-as-california-lockdown-sparks-u-s-recession-fears?sref=mmeFTDW1\">slid significantly on Friday<\/a> after California\u2019s governor ordered all residents to stay at home as of Thursday evening. The slide comes after the index hit a record high on Wednesday amid bond and equity sell-offs. \u201cThe softer [USD] tone is giving some respite to many badly beaten-up currencies,\u201d said a senior EM strategist at TD securities, but the USD is still in high demand and is likely to \u201cget back on track.\u201d Options pricing continues to indicate that investors are bullish on the greenback, according to the business information service.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>EM economies under stress as investors dump debt, flock to rising USD: Emerging market debt and equity outflows have hit USD 78 bn in the two months since the start of the covid-19 crisis in January, with investors rushing to snap up cash as a safe haven asset, Jonathan Wheatley writes for the Financial Times. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":570178,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9272],"tags":[82,2082,380,7106,115,72,1510],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-570177","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-macro-picture","tag-bonds","tag-carry-trade","tag-currencies","tag-debt","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-the-macro-picture","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"6bafa5ea-1e04-48bb-a79a-a602ca5b3a5d","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/249.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[570159],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>EM economies are under stress as investors dump debt, flock to rising USD - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/22\/em-economies-are-under-stress-as-investors-dump-debt-flock-to-rising-usd\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EM economies are under stress as investors dump debt, flock to rising USD\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"EM economies under stress as investors dump debt, flock to rising USD: Emerging market debt and equity outflows have hit USD 78 bn in the two months since the start of the covid-19 crisis in January, with investors rushing to snap up cash as a safe haven asset, Jonathan Wheatley writes for the Financial Times. 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Data from EPFR Global shows that EM bond outflows hit USD 17 bn in the week leading up to 25 March, following\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/324.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570495,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/02\/emerging-markets-flock-to-the-imf-for-help-as-covid-19-brings-looming-economic-crisis\/","url_meta":{"origin":570177,"position":1},"title":"Emerging markets flock to the IMF for help as covid-19 brings looming economic crisis","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 April 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Emerging markets flock to the IMF for help as covid-19 brings looming economic crisis: Eighty-five countries have recently approached the IMF for emergency assistance, driven by record capital outflows, plummeting oil prices, a dearth of tourism, and reduced demand for exports, the Financial Times reports. Developing countries are facing a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/4\/16.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":566246,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/06\/rising-us-inflation-a-worry-for-emerging-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":570177,"position":2},"title":"Rising US inflation a worry for emerging markets","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 June 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Heightened inflation in the US is likely to spell trouble for emerging economies as rising yields squeezes countries with hefty debt loads and precarious public finances, analysts tell the Financial Times. \u201cEmerging economies should be worrying more about US inflation than about their own,\u201d Tatiana Lysenko, lead economist for emerging\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570425,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/31\/are-emerging-markets-about-to-impose-capital-controls\/","url_meta":{"origin":570177,"position":3},"title":"Are emerging markets about to impose capital controls?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"31 March 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Are emerging markets about the slap on capital controls? Emerging market economies are witnessing a collapse in external financing, with indications that outflows from EM bond and equity funds of the last three weeks exceeded 4% of net asset value. Normal protocol would see EM policymakers respond by selling reserves\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/355.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":593429,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/27\/emerging-markets-fx-funding-needs-to-repay-usd-denominated-debt-to-soar-next-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":570177,"position":4},"title":"Emerging markets\u2019 FX funding needs to repay USD-denominated debt to \u201csoar\u201d next year","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Emerging markets\u2019 FX funding needs to repay a decade of USD-denominated debt are on track to \u201csoar\u201d next year, Caroline Grady writes for the Financial Times. EMs have racked up significant debts since the 2008 global financial crisis, and are scheduled to repay nearly USD 800 bn-worth of debt on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/11\/1221.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":554578,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/19\/sp-trims-em-growth-outlook-for-2022\/","url_meta":{"origin":570177,"position":5},"title":"S&#038;P trims EM growth outlook for 2022","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 December 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Emerging markets are walking into the new year with a lower growth outlook from S&P Global Ratings, which revised downwards its growth forecast for emerging markets by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5%. The ratings agency attributes the revision to the pandemic\u2019s overstay and a slowdown in China for the downgrade,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/12\/677.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/570177","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=570177"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/570177\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/570159"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/570178"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=570177"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=570177"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=570177"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=570177"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=570177"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}