{"id":569906,"date":"2020-03-11T04:16:40","date_gmt":"2020-03-11T04:16:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/11\/inflation-slows-to-5-3-in-february-but-will-covid-19-give-it-a-bump\/"},"modified":"2020-03-11T04:16:40","modified_gmt":"2020-03-11T04:16:40","slug":"inflation-slows-to-5-3-in-february-but-will-covid-19-give-it-a-bump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/11\/inflation-slows-to-5-3-in-february-but-will-covid-19-give-it-a-bump\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation slows to 5.3% in February, but will covid-19 give it a bump?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-01\"><\/a> <strong>Annual urban inflation<\/strong><strong> fell in February following three months of back-to-back <\/strong><strong>acceleration, <\/strong>according to <a href=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/3cMjPpa\">Capmas figures<\/a> out yesterday. The reading came in at 5.3%, down <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/7d516919-c014-4ca0-80eb-af55172d83bd\">from 7.2% in January<\/a>. On a monthly basis, prices remained constant after having risen 0.7% in January.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Once again, food prices were primarily responsible:<\/strong> Food prices, which account for a third of the basket of goods, took 1.1 percentage points off the headline rate, falling by 2.3% on an annual basis.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Core inflation falls slightly:<\/strong> Annual core inflation fell to 1.9% in February from 2.7% the month before, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/CPI_press-release_February-2020.pdf\">figures released by the Central Bank of Egypt (pdf)<\/a>. On a monthly basis, core inflation fell to 0.2% from 1%.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Will slowing inflation persuade the CBE to resume its easing cycle? Yes, says Capital <\/strong><strong>Economics<\/strong>, which now expects a 50 bps rate cate when the MPC meets on 2 April. Both inflation \u2014 which is now well below the central bank\u2019s 9% (+\/-3%) target range \u2014 and the EGP \u2014 which is up 2% against the greenback so far this year \u2014 gives policymakers additional room to make further cuts to interest rates. It also suggests that the central bank will make protecting economic activity its priority and cut rates to try to mitigate the negative effects of the covid-19 outbreak.<\/p>\n<p><strong>No, says Pharos\u2019 head of research Radwa El Swaify,<\/strong> who told us that the CBE will not risk dampening foreign appetite for Egyptian debt. She forecasts the MPC will leave rates unchanged when it meets at the beginning of next month. \u201cWe expect the CBE to maintain rates in light of the expected pressure on Egypt\u2019s three key sources of foreign currency (foreign portfolio investments, tourism, and remittances). This is obvious from the witnessed weakness in the EGP\/USD exchange rate over the previous 2-3 weeks,\u201d she said. Mohamed Abu Basha, EFG Hermes\u2019s head of research, concurred, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2020-03-10\/egypt-s-inflation-slows-but-coronavirus-may-extend-rate-pause?srnd=premium-middle-east&sref=mmeFTDW1\">telling Bloomberg<\/a> that the central bank will probably hold rates due to the negative effects of covid-19 on Egypt\u2019s external balance.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Will covid-19 give inflation an upward nudge? <\/strong>Local manufacturers reliant on covid-19 ridden China <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/205c71fc-e685-460a-a46d-096bb6f34812\">are struggling<\/a> to find alternative source markets for their raw materials and will likely see (or have already seen) their costs edge up as a result. This could lead to cost-push inflation and reflect in the inflation figures of subsequent months, perhaps prompting the CBE to hold off on easing.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The central bank had lowered interest rates four times over the course of 2019,<\/strong> delivering a total 450 bps in cuts between February and November. It left rates <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/c3bde583-a70c-46f0-a90e-01a81a13bc6a\">on hold<\/a> at its two last meetings to contain inflationary pressures and in light of global headwinds.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The overnight deposit rate currently stands at 12.25% and the lending rate is at 13.25%.<\/strong> The main operation and discount rates are 12.75%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Annual urban inflation fell in February following three months of back-to-back acceleration, according to Capmas figures out yesterday. The reading came in at 5.3%, down from 7.2% in January. On a monthly basis, prices remained constant after having risen 0.7% in January. Once again, food prices were primarily responsible: Food prices, which account for a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":569907,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[107,72,2234,182,724,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-569906","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-covid-19","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-inflation","tag-monetary-policy","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"14366c65-7c0c-43c2-9323-5220a775c9fa","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/132.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[569901],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Inflation slows to 5.3% in February, but will covid-19 give it a bump? - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/11\/inflation-slows-to-5-3-in-february-but-will-covid-19-give-it-a-bump\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Inflation slows to 5.3% in February, but will covid-19 give it a bump?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Annual urban inflation fell in February following three months of back-to-back acceleration, according to Capmas figures out yesterday. The reading came in at 5.3%, down from 7.2% in January. On a monthly basis, prices remained constant after having risen 0.7% in January. Once again, food prices were primarily responsible: Food prices, which account for a [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/11\/inflation-slows-to-5-3-in-february-but-will-covid-19-give-it-a-bump\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EnterpriseAM Egypt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-03-11T04:16:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/132.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/11\/inflation-slows-to-5-3-in-february-but-will-covid-19-give-it-a-bump\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/11\/inflation-slows-to-5-3-in-february-but-will-covid-19-give-it-a-bump\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"enterpriseam admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d\"},\"headline\":\"Inflation slows to 5.3% in February, but will covid-19 give it a bump?\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-03-11T04:16:40+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/11\/inflation-slows-to-5-3-in-february-but-will-covid-19-give-it-a-bump\/\"},\"wordCount\":460,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/11\/inflation-slows-to-5-3-in-february-but-will-covid-19-give-it-a-bump\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/132.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\",\"keywords\":[\"covid-19\",\"EnterpriseAM\",\"foreign exchange\",\"inflation\",\"monetary policy\",\"SPEED ROUND\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Speed Round\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/11\/inflation-slows-to-5-3-in-february-but-will-covid-19-give-it-a-bump\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/11\/inflation-slows-to-5-3-in-february-but-will-covid-19-give-it-a-bump\/\",\"name\":\"Inflation slows to 5.3% in February, but will covid-19 give it a bump? 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Price growth increased 0.6% on a monthly basis compared to 0.8% during the same month last year, and zero in February. This is the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":572107,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/06\/11\/egypts-inflation-decelerated-in-may-to-4-7-below-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":569906,"position":1},"title":"Egypt\u2019s inflation decelerated in May to 4.7%, below expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 June 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"We caught a break: Inflation cools to six-month low: Annual urban inflation in May slowed to its lowest level since November, dropping to 4.7% from 5.9% in April, according to data from state statistics agency Capmas. Food and beverage prices continue to be the main drivers: Food prices fell 0.7%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/6\/133.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":569013,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/02\/11\/annual-inflation-rises-marginally-to-7-2-in-january\/","url_meta":{"origin":569906,"position":2},"title":"Annual inflation rises marginally to 7.2% in January","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 February 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation rose (ever so slightly) for the third consecutive month in January, inching up to 7.2% from 7.1% in December, according to Capmas figures released yesterday. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.7% in January, after falling 0.2% in December. Food prices \u2014 which comprise around a third\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/2\/143.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":564976,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/10\/inflation-edges-up-in-february-as-education-tobacco-costs-rise\/","url_meta":{"origin":569906,"position":3},"title":"Inflation edges up in February as education, tobacco costs rise","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"10 March 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation accelerated to 4.5% in February, up from 4.3% the previous month, state statistics bureau Capmas\u2019 latest reading (pdf) showed. The increase came after a drop in January, when the headline rate fell from 5.4%, and in December, when it slowed down from November\u2019s five-month high of 5.7%.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;SPEED ROUND: MACRO&quot;","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: MACRO","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-macro\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":597988,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/12\/egypts-annual-inflation-falls-to-13\/","url_meta":{"origin":569906,"position":4},"title":"Egypt\u2019s annual inflation falls to 13%","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 May 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation unexpectedly cooled in April: The annual headline rate of inflation fell to 13.0% in April from 14.2% in March, the lowest rate since the start of the year, according to central bank figures (pdf). Data shows that month-on-month inflation fell to 0.5% last month from 0.8% in March, while\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/5\/3313.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":572844,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/07\/12\/egypts-annual-urban-inflation-ticks-up-in-june-to-5-6\/","url_meta":{"origin":569906,"position":5},"title":"Egypt\u2019s annual urban inflation ticks up in June to 5.6%","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 July 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation accelerated to 5.6% in June, edging up from asix-monthlow of 4.7% in May, according to central bank figures (pdf). Monthly figures remained subdued, with June\u2019s figure coming in at 0.1%, compared to -0.8% during the same month last year, and to 0% in May, the central bank\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/7\/74.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/569906","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=569906"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/569906\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/569901"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/569907"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=569906"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=569906"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=569906"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=569906"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=569906"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}