{"id":569151,"date":"2020-02-16T05:45:25","date_gmt":"2020-02-16T05:45:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/02\/16\/enterprise-poll-analysts-divided-over-which-way-the-cbe-will-go-with-interest-rates\/"},"modified":"2020-02-16T05:45:25","modified_gmt":"2020-02-16T05:45:25","slug":"enterprise-poll-analysts-divided-over-which-way-the-cbe-will-go-with-interest-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/02\/16\/enterprise-poll-analysts-divided-over-which-way-the-cbe-will-go-with-interest-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"Enterprise Poll: Analysts divided over which way the CBE will go with interest rates"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> SURVEY- Analysts are split down the middle on whether the Central Bank of <\/strong>Egypt will resume its easing cycle when it meets on Thursday.<\/strong> Six out of 12 economists we polled last week expect the central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to cut rates by 50-100 bps and five forecast it to hold fire in the face of uncertainty surrounding the trajectory of inflation and the impact of the coronavirus. Mohamed Abu Basha, head of EFG Hermes\u2019 macro unit, was on the fence about whether the CBE would cut or leave rates unchanged.<\/p>\n

The CBE <\/strong>left rates on hold last month<\/a><\/strong>, citing a pickup in inflation, a rise in unemployment, and volatility in the oil market. This means that the overnight deposit rate remains at 12.25% and the lending rate at 13.25%. The main operation and discount rates both stand at 12.75%.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a lack of agreement on how recent inflation figures will factor into the CBE\u2019s decision.<\/strong> The five respondents predicting a cut said that the central bank would prioritize other concerns, given the fact that inflation remains within the central bank\u2019s 9% (+\/- 3%) target range. Rising food prices pushed inflation up to 7.2% last month<\/a>, an increase of just 0.1 percentage points from the month before. Others \u2014 such as Beltone\u2019s Alia Mamdouh \u2014 believe that it will wait until it sees signs of calming inflation before resuming the easing cycle.<\/p>\n

And don\u2019t forget last week\u2019s suggestion<\/a> that leaving rates where they stand would be good for the carry trade<\/strong> and, by extension, for Egypt\u2019s foreign exchange position.<\/p>\n

Deteriorating private sector business activity a source of concern for the CBE:<\/strong> The central bank is likely to react to last month\u2019s poor PMI figures and cut rates in an attempt to support business activity, the dovish analysts contend. Non-oil private sector business activity sank to three-year lows<\/a> last month, marking six consecutive months of contraction. \u201cThe fall in the PMI survey shows that the private sector needs some stimulus,\u201d said the chairman of economic think tank Signet, Angus Blair, who predicts a 100 bps cut. Bassem Kamar, lead economist for the south and east Mediterranean at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, forecasts a 50 bps cut for similar reasons. \u201cThe central bank needs to encourage the private sector to invest<\/strong> in order to play the role assigned to it in economic growth and job creation, which requires a reduction of interest on lending to boost corporate capital expansion,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

But the CBE will also have to weigh the potential fallout from the coronavirus:<\/strong> Several analysts said the central bank is not likely to risk cutting interest rates while the full impact of the coronavirus remains unknown. \u201cI expect that the CBE will tend to stabilize until the study of the impact of the coronavirus on the investment climate and trade exchange with China,\u201d said Sara Saada, senior economist at CI Capital. Some surveyed said there\u2019s a risk of portfolio investment exiting emerging markets in light of the USD\u2019s rise amid the fears of the virus, so holding off on a rate cut would make Egypt stickier.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s debate about just how much the trade disruption caused by the virus will affect inflation:<\/strong> Professor of Economics at Cairo University and former IMF and World Bank advisor, Fakhry El Fiky, warns that there is a risk of inflation being imported if trade with China slows. \u201cIf merchants in Egypt resort to storing Chinese goods and raising their prices, this will lead to an increase in inflation in the coming months,\u201d he said. Hany Genena, head of research at Prime Holdings, played down the threat, suggesting that while local firms would experience \u201cpressure\u201d for the coming 1-3 months, there is little risk of inflation caused by businesses pushing up the prices of Chinese goods. \u201cThis will not lead to a sustained shock to inflation as demand is naturally low due to weak liquidity among consumers,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Are the CBE\u2019s recent initiatives a substitute for a rate cut?<\/strong> El Fiky, who thinks the CBE will opt to leave rates on hold, said that doing so would not risk restricting business investment due to the recent support given by the central bank to the tourism<\/a>, industrial, and real estate<\/a> industries.<\/p>\n

What does this mean for interest rates over the longer term?<\/strong> Amr El Alfy, head of research at Shuaa, said that the twin uncertainties of the coronavirus and rising inflation will likely mean that the central bank holds off on further cuts until the second half of the year, when it is likely to cut by 200 bps before 2021. However, he does not rule out the possibility of a cut in April. Pharos\u2019 head of research Radwa El Swaify, who was among the analysts to forecast a hold this month, sees the central bank following a \u201ccalmer policy\u201d through 2020. She believes the CBE will cut by 200-300 bps this year<\/strong>, with the cuts most likely coming in April, June and August. Abu Basha expects rates to fall by 150-200 bps by the end of the year, calling another cut \u201cinevitable.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

SURVEY- Analysts are split down the middle on whether the Central Bank of Egypt will resume its easing cycle when it meets on Thursday. Six out of 12 economists we polled last week expect the central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to cut rates by 50-100 bps and five forecast it to hold fire in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":569152,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[271,104,72,182,349,185,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-569151","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-pmi","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"452adb89-769a-4d1d-a084-7aa4d511604a","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/2\/199.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[569146],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nEnterprise Poll: Analysts divided over which way the CBE will go with interest rates - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/02\/16\/enterprise-poll-analysts-divided-over-which-way-the-cbe-will-go-with-interest-rates\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Enterprise Poll: Analysts divided over which way the CBE will go with interest rates\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"SURVEY- Analysts are split down the middle on whether the Central Bank of Egypt will resume its easing cycle when it meets on Thursday. 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A poll conducted by Enterprise over the weekend shows no consensus among analysts about whether the central bank will cut interest rates when its new Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday. Four of the seven analysts we polled predicted\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/581.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":574709,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/09\/20\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-leave-rates-on-hold-in-september-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":569151,"position":1},"title":"Enterprise poll: Central Bank of Egypt to leave rates on hold in September 2020","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 September 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE expected to leave rates on hold when it meets this Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will likely keep interest rates unchanged when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to an Enterprise poll. All 11 economists and analysts surveyed expect the MPC to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/9\/210.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":573592,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/08\/11\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-leave-rates-on-hold-in-august-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":569151,"position":2},"title":"Enterprise Poll: Central Bank of Egypt to leave rates on hold in August 2020","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 August 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE likely to leave rates on hold when it meets this Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to an Enterprise poll. Nine of 10 analysts surveyed expect the bank to keep\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/8\/76.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598209,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/19\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-maintain-rates-despite-drop-in-april-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":569151,"position":3},"title":"Enterprise poll: Central Bank of Egypt to maintain rates despite drop in April inflation","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 May 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- CBE to leave key interest rates on hold this Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will likely leave key interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee meets this Thursday, according to all 12 economists polled by Enterprise. Respondents cited the likely impact on inflation of upcoming\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":569366,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/02\/23\/cbe-leaves-rates-on-hold-for-second-consecutive-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":569151,"position":4},"title":"CBE leaves rates on hold for second consecutive meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"23 February 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE leaves rates on hold for second consecutive meeting: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday, citing inflation and macro headwinds, according to an official statement (pdf). Uptick in inflation a key factor in the CBE\u2019s decision: The CBE\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/2\/278.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567288,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/19\/against-analyst-expectations-central-bank-of-egypt-keeps-rates-on-hold\/","url_meta":{"origin":569151,"position":5},"title":"Against analyst expectations, Central Bank of Egypt keeps rates on hold","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 January 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE leaves rates on hold: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left interest rates unchanged when it met on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The central bank cited domestic factors such as inflation accelerating in December on the back of the dissipating favorable base\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/632.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/569151","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=569151"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/569151\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/569146"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/569152"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=569151"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=569151"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=569151"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=569151"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=569151"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}