{"id":569103,"date":"2020-02-13T04:05:38","date_gmt":"2020-02-13T04:05:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/02\/13\/cbe-to-ease-off-rate-cuts-this-year-in-a-bid-to-support-strong-carry-trade-efg-hermes\/"},"modified":"2020-02-13T04:05:38","modified_gmt":"2020-02-13T04:05:38","slug":"cbe-to-ease-off-rate-cuts-this-year-in-a-bid-to-support-strong-carry-trade-efg-hermes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/02\/13\/cbe-to-ease-off-rate-cuts-this-year-in-a-bid-to-support-strong-carry-trade-efg-hermes\/","title":{"rendered":"CBE to ease off rate cuts this year in a bid to support strong carry trade -EFG Hermes"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> CBE to ease off rate cuts this year in a bid to support strong carry trade -EFG <\/strong>Hermes:<\/strong> The Central Bank of Egypt is likely to slow its easing cycle this year as it looks to maintain the strength of the carry trade and support the EGP, according to a research note from EFG Hermes picked up by Bloomberg<\/a>. Tumbling inflation in 2H2019 allowed the central bank to cut interest rates by 450 bps last year, but EFG analysts Mohamed Abu Basha and Mostafa El Bakly think we\u2019ll be lucky to see a quarter of that in 2020, writing that bank officials will look \u201cto continue providing decent real rates for carry traders, who are important to maintain a healthy outlook for the EGP.\u201d<\/p>\n

Policymakers could look at other options to stimulate borrowing:<\/strong> The CBE could turn to open-market operations to inject liquidity into the banking system, allowing it encourage lending and investment while scaling back its easing cycle. In light of this the investment bank is only giving a 50% chance of a cut when the CBE meets next week<\/strong>. Shuaa, meanwhile, says in a separate note (pdf)<\/a> that the time is ripe for the CBE to begin cutting down its reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for bank deposits, which would allow commercial banks to increase money supply in the market. The prospect of scaling back banks\u2019 RRR was floated as a possibility by several economists back in October<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The EGP surge against the greenback has accelerated since the turn of the year<\/strong>, rising from EGP 16.00\/USD to EGP 15.66 \u2014 a level not seen since 17 November 2016<\/a>, two weeks after the government floated the currency. The currency has risen around 13% against the USD since the beginning of 2019.<\/p>\n

This has been driven by a surge in foreign inflows into local-currency bonds,<\/strong> which have risen 3.7% against the USD this year, around four times the average return in emerging markets, according to Bloomberg Barclays EM indices.<\/p>\n

Expect the EGP to 15.00 by year\u2019s end -DB:<\/strong> Deutsche Bank has forecast the EGP to fall to 15.50 against the USD by the end of 1H2020 and 15.00 by the end of the year in a report picked up by the local press<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

CBE to ease off rate cuts this year in a bid to support strong carry trade -EFG Hermes: The Central Bank of Egypt is likely to slow its easing cycle this year as it looks to maintain the strength of the carry trade and support the EGP, according to a research note from EFG Hermes […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":569104,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[82,271,380,1419,115,72,182,349,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-569103","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-bonds","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-currencies","tag-egp","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"6fa54bf6-12d1-4a3b-aec8-8679ee5ada4a","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/2\/181.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[569098],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nCBE to ease off rate cuts this year in a bid to support strong carry trade -EFG Hermes - 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Respondents cited the inflationary effects of last weekend\u2019s fuel subsidy\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":574907,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/09\/27\/against-expectations-central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-interest-rates-by-50-bps\/","url_meta":{"origin":569103,"position":1},"title":"Against expectations, Central Bank of Egypt cuts interest rates by 50 bps","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 September 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Central Bank of Egypt surprises with first rate cut since March: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut interest rates by 50 bps on Thursday \u2014 the first since the emergency 300 bps rate cut in March, the central bank said in a statement (pdf). The move was a surprise\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/9\/278.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":595490,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/29\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-rates-by-100-bps-in-line-with-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":569103,"position":2},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt cuts rates by 100 bps, in line with expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"In line with expectations, CBE cuts rates: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut interest rates by 100 bps on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The central bank cited last month\u2019s inflation figures, which hit a six-year low, as well as declining unemployment and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596258,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/22\/cbe-likely-to-cut-rates-today-economists\/","url_meta":{"origin":569103,"position":3},"title":"CBE likely to cut rates today -economists","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 August 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"There\u2019s a growing consensus for a rate cut today: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will cut its benchmark overnight deposit rate by \u201cat least\u201d 100 basis points when it meets later today as easing inflation and a stable EGP offset concerns of a sell-off, according to 10 of 12\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/8\/580.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570452,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/01\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-rates-on-hold-in-april-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":569103,"position":4},"title":"Enterprise Poll: CBE to leave rates on hold in April meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"1 April 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave rates on hold tomorrow: The Central Bank of Egypt is likely to leave interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee meets tomorrow, according to a poll of analysts conducted by Enterprise. Ten of 11 analysts polled expect the bank to leave interest rates\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/4\/4.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":621549,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/11\/12\/egypts-central-bank-to-hold-key-rates-on-thursday\/","url_meta":{"origin":569103,"position":5},"title":"Egypt\u2019s central bank to hold key rates on Thursday","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 November 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"EXCLUSIVE- Enterprise poll of economists sees CBE leaving interest rates on hold: The central bank is expected to leave its key interest rates on hold when its monetary policy committee meets on Thursday, an Enterprise poll of economists and research houses found. Survey participants expect the CBE will leave its\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/569103","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=569103"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/569103\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/569098"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/569104"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=569103"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=569103"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=569103"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=569103"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=569103"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}