{"id":568550,"date":"2020-11-15T04:08:06","date_gmt":"2020-11-15T04:08:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/15\/central-bank-of-egypt-makes-shock-50-bps-rate-cut\/"},"modified":"2020-11-15T04:08:06","modified_gmt":"2020-11-15T04:08:06","slug":"central-bank-of-egypt-makes-shock-50-bps-rate-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/15\/central-bank-of-egypt-makes-shock-50-bps-rate-cut\/","title":{"rendered":"Central Bank of Egypt makes shock 50 bps rate cut"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Th<\/strong>e Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut interest rates by 50 basis points on Thursday <\/strong>for the second consecutive time <\/strong>to support economic recovery from the covid-induced slump, the CBE said in a statement (pdf)<\/a>. The CBE\u2019s overnight deposit rate now stands at 8.25% and the lending rate is 9.25%, while the main operation and discount rates are 8.75%. The decision \u2014 which comes as inflation remains low despite a slight uptick in October \u2014 follows a surprise 50 bps cut following a meeting in September<\/a>. The CBE has now shaved 400 bps over three interest rate cuts since the beginning of the year. The rate cut was largely a surprise<\/strong>, as only Pharos\u2019 Radwa El Swaify and Arqaam Capital\u2019s Noaman Khalid predicted the move in our poll of eight leading economists last week<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The rationale: support economic activity while inflation is still muted. <\/strong>\u201cThe reduction \u2026 provides appropriate support to economic activity, while remaining consistent with price stability,\u201d the CBE said. Egypt\u2019s economy grew 3.6% in FY2019-2020, which ended in June 2020, down from 5.6% in FY2018-2019. The slowdown was concentrated in 4Q2019-20, during which the economy contracted 1.7% due to partial lockdown measures, said the CBE. Consumption picked up in the following quarter, but it \u201cwas not enough to offset the combined contraction in investments and to a lesser extent in net exports,\u201d the central bank added. Key indicators for the second quarter of the year, meanwhile, \u201ccontinue to show gradual signs of recovery,\u201d the central bank said.<\/p>\n

The cut came despite October\u2019s slight uptick in inflation: <\/strong>Annual urban inflation edged up to 4.5% in October<\/a>, from 3.7% in September<\/a> and 3.4% in August, but still remains near historic-lows. The CBE now expects inflation to fall below the lower end of its 6-12% target <\/strong>range in 4Q2020. And because the path for current policy rates remains a function of medium-term inflation expectations rather than current inflation outturns, the MPC decided to cut key policy rates by 50 basis points, the central bank said.<\/p>\n

Rate cut impact on Egypt\u2019s carry trade will be minimal: <\/strong>Even after the rate cut, Egypt maintains the world\u2019s highest real interest rate and offers carry trade returns second only to Argentina, Bloomberg data shows<\/a>. \u201cThe magnitude and pace of monetary easing have [also] been very gradual to preserve foreign interest in local debt instruments in light of volatile global growth dynamics,\u201d Pharos\u2019 El Swaify told Bloomberg<\/a>. Foreign holdings of EGP-denominated sovereign debt more than doubled<\/a> to USD 21.1 bn as of mid-October from USD 10.4 bn in May following a strong recovery from a global market panic in the spring caused by the coronavirus pandemic.<\/p>\n

The rate cut will help set up corporate borrowing in 2021 to support growth. <\/strong>Most corporations will not take on major new debt at the end of a fiscal year, meaning we could see an uptick in demand for debt to finance CAPEX in the new year at companies that are hitting production ceilings. Egypt\u2019s non-oil private sector grew in October<\/a> at its strongest rate since December 2014, with the purchasing managers\u2019 index gauge showing that demand is holding up amid looser covid-19 restrictions. With liquidity being a main issue, the rate cut could therefore prove very helpful.<\/p>\n

Curbing the EGP:<\/strong> Policymakers may have had one eye on the currency, which has been strengthening against the USD in recent days, James Swasnton, MENA economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note. The EGP is currently up by 3% against the USD year-to-date, and is looking \u201cincreasingly overvalued,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n

Further monetary easing this year? It\u2019s too early to say, <\/strong>El Swaify tells us. \u201cWe see the CBE possibly taking a breather in its final meeting,\u201d which falls on 24 December, but we have to wait and see how local inflation dynamics play out, changes in USD inflows, and any covid-19 or global growth trends, she adds.<\/p>\n

And in the longer term?<\/strong> Renaissance Capital sees another 200-300 bps of rate cuts in 2021 as being sufficient to stimulate investment and attract foreign direct investment into the manufacturing sector in 2022, global chief economist Charles Robertson wrote in a note. These cuts will likely bring the EGP back down to 16.5-17 against the greenback, he said.<\/p>\n

Corrected on 15 November 2020
\n<\/em>Egypt's economy contracted 1.7% in 4Q2019-2020, not 3Q2019-2020.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut interest rates by 50 basis points on Thursday for the second consecutive time to support economic recovery from the covid-induced slump, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The CBE\u2019s overnight deposit rate now stands at 8.25% and the lending rate is 9.25%, while the main operation and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":568551,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[271,72,182,724,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-568550","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-monetary-policy","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"5662d281-1e6f-4604-b559-ae1ac16ce3be","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/11\/147.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[568545],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nCentral Bank of Egypt makes shock 50 bps rate cut - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/15\/central-bank-of-egypt-makes-shock-50-bps-rate-cut\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Central Bank of Egypt makes shock 50 bps rate cut\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut interest rates by 50 basis points on Thursday for the second consecutive time to support economic recovery from the covid-induced slump, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). 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The data vendor arm of the ratings agency said that easing inflation and the two consecutive rate cuts in the US will encourage the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":592825,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/07\/cbe-to-make-third-consecutive-rate-cut-next-week\/","url_meta":{"origin":568550,"position":1},"title":"CBE to make third consecutive rate cut next week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- Economists predict CBE will make third consecutive rate cut next Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could cut benchmark interest rates by 50-100 bps when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets a week from today, according to five of six economists polled by Enterprise. The economists cited the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":593045,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/17\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-interest-rates-by-100-bps\/","url_meta":{"origin":568550,"position":2},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt cuts interest rates by 100 bps","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE cuts rates by 100 bps, in line with market expectations: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy (MPC) cut interest rates by 100 bps on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The central bank cited inflation\u2019s continued deceleration in October, with annual headline inflation hitting its lowest\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567095,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/13\/analysts-split-on-interest-rates-ahead-of-thursdays-cbe-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":568550,"position":3},"title":"Analysts split on interest rates ahead of Thursday\u2019s CBE meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 January 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- Analysts split on interest rates ahead of Thursday\u2019s CBE meeting. A poll conducted by Enterprise over the weekend shows no consensus among analysts about whether the central bank will cut interest rates when its new Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday. Four of the seven analysts we polled predicted\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/581.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":595265,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/22\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-could-cut-interest-rates-again-this-week\/","url_meta":{"origin":568550,"position":4},"title":"Enterprise Poll: Central Bank of Egypt could cut interest rates again this week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could cut benchmark interest rates by 50-150 bps when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to seven of eight economists polled by Enterprise. The economists cited the unexpected inflation rate in August, which dropped to the lowest level in six-and-a-half\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":591925,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/12\/22\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-keep-rates-on-hold-in-final-meeting-of-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":568550,"position":5},"title":"Enterprise poll: Central Bank of Egypt to keep rates on hold in final meeting of 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 December 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- Economists expect CBE to keep rates on hold in final meeting of 2019: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to seven of 10 economists polled by Enterprise. This is the lowest rate of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/12\/CBE-1600px.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/568550","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=568550"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/568550\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/568545"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/568551"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=568550"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=568550"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=568550"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=568550"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=568550"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}