{"id":568327,"date":"2020-12-27T04:03:05","date_gmt":"2020-12-27T04:03:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/27\/you-called-it-cbe-leaves-rates-on-hold\/"},"modified":"2020-12-27T04:03:05","modified_gmt":"2020-12-27T04:03:05","slug":"you-called-it-cbe-leaves-rates-on-hold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/27\/you-called-it-cbe-leaves-rates-on-hold\/","title":{"rendered":"You called it: CBE leaves rates on hold"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee left rates on hold in its <\/strong>policy meeting on Thursday<\/strong>, citing higher inflation and muted economic growth in the third quarter of the year, the CBE said in a statement (pdf)<\/a>. The decision comes amid growing global concern about a new, faster spreading covid-19 variant. This prompted the central bank to pause its easing cycle after having already enacted two consecutive rate cuts.<\/p>\n

Where do rates stand? <\/strong>The CBE\u2019s overnight deposit rate is at 8.25% and the lending rate 9.25%. The main operation and disc. rates are 8.75%. The central bank has so far cut rates by 400 bps this year<\/a>, including a record 300 bps cut<\/a> in March and 50 bps cuts at each of the last two meetings<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The CBE also adjusted its inflation target to a range of 7% (+\/- 2%) by 4Q2022,<\/strong> from a previous target range of 9% (+\/- 3%), it said. Inflation has been muted for the better part of 2020, exceeding the lower 6% band of the CBE\u2019s target range only once in January<\/a>. The annual headline figure, however, accelerated to 5.7% in November<\/a> from 4.6% in October<\/a>. Inflation could increase in 2021 due to \u201cunfavorable base effects related to the normalization of monthly inflation rates,\u201d but is unlikely to stray away from the 7% (+\/- 2%) by 4Q2022, Bloomberg<\/a> quoted Pharos\u2019 head of research Radwa El Swaify as saying.<\/p>\n

In line with expectations: <\/strong>All 10 economists and analysts we surveyed last week<\/a> predicted the CBE would leave rates unchanged in its final meeting of the year. Most argued this would be due to rising inflation, the ongoing pandemic, and to support the all-important carry trade. Egypt\u2019s carry trade is attractive to overseas investors as, despite the recent rate cuts, the country\u2019s real interest rate is still second highest in the world, surpassed only by Malaysia, according to a list of more than 50 major economies tracked by Bloomberg.<\/p>\n

While economic growth was slow in 3Q2020, it was better than the previous quarter: <\/strong>Real GDP growth recorded 0.7% between July and October, up from a contraction of 1.7% in the previous quarter, when lockdown measures were in full force, the CBE said. \u201cMost demand side leading indicators for October and November 2020 show continued signs of recovery after displaying weakness during [2Q2020],\u201d the CBE added. Planning and Economic Development Minister Hala El Said had announced the muted growth figure in last week\u2019s cabinet meeting<\/a>, citing the pandemic-induced hit to the tourism industry as the main culprit.<\/p>\n

When can we expect the CBE to resume its easing cycle? <\/strong>There\u2019s still room for authorities to cut rates, \u201cbut the timing and magnitude of the cuts are completely reliant on volatility in global markets,\u201d El Swaify said. The first rate cut may come in early 2021, analysts we surveyed for our poll said. HC Securities penciled in a100-bps cut in 1Q2021, while Renaissance Capital predicted a total of 100-150 bps over the next 12 months.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee left rates on hold in its policy meeting on Thursday, citing higher inflation and muted economic growth in the third quarter of the year, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The decision comes amid growing global concern about a new, faster spreading covid-19 variant. This prompted […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":568328,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[271,104,72,182,349,724],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-568327","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"8a7e084b-539b-48a1-9a82-a716977f281f","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/434.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[568323],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nYou called it: CBE leaves rates on hold - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/27\/you-called-it-cbe-leaves-rates-on-hold\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"You called it: CBE leaves rates on hold\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee left rates on hold in its policy meeting on Thursday, citing higher inflation and muted economic growth in the third quarter of the year, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). 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Ten of 11 analysts polled expect the bank to leave interest rates\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/4\/4.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":568133,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/20\/hold-your-horses\/","url_meta":{"origin":568327,"position":1},"title":"Hold your horses","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 December 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee holds its final meeting of the year on Thursday, according to an Enterprise poll. All 10 economists and analysts we surveyed expect the central bank to hold off on further easing, citing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "POLL"","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/325.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":595490,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/29\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-rates-by-100-bps-in-line-with-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":568327,"position":2},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt cuts rates by 100 bps, in line with expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"In line with expectations, CBE cuts rates: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut interest rates by 100 bps on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The central bank cited last month\u2019s inflation figures, which hit a six-year low, as well as declining unemployment and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":592825,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/07\/cbe-to-make-third-consecutive-rate-cut-next-week\/","url_meta":{"origin":568327,"position":3},"title":"CBE to make third consecutive rate cut next week","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- Economists predict CBE will make third consecutive rate cut next Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could cut benchmark interest rates by 50-100 bps when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets a week from today, according to five of six economists polled by Enterprise. The economists cited the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":591925,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/12\/22\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-keep-rates-on-hold-in-final-meeting-of-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":568327,"position":4},"title":"Enterprise poll: Central Bank of Egypt to keep rates on hold in final meeting of 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 December 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- Economists expect CBE to keep rates on hold in final meeting of 2019: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to seven of 10 economists polled by Enterprise. This is the lowest rate of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/12\/CBE-1600px.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567095,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/13\/analysts-split-on-interest-rates-ahead-of-thursdays-cbe-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":568327,"position":5},"title":"Analysts split on interest rates ahead of Thursday\u2019s CBE meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 January 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- Analysts split on interest rates ahead of Thursday\u2019s CBE meeting. A poll conducted by Enterprise over the weekend shows no consensus among analysts about whether the central bank will cut interest rates when its new Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday. 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