{"id":568133,"date":"2020-12-20T04:15:26","date_gmt":"2020-12-20T04:15:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/20\/hold-your-horses\/"},"modified":"2020-12-20T04:15:26","modified_gmt":"2020-12-20T04:15:26","slug":"hold-your-horses","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/20\/hold-your-horses\/","title":{"rendered":"Hold your horses"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-01\"><\/a> <strong>ENTERPRISE POLL- The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave rates on hold<\/strong> when its Monetary Policy Committee holds its final meeting of the year on Thursday, according to an Enterprise poll. All 10 economists and analysts we surveyed expect the central bank to hold off on further easing, citing rising inflation, the ongoing pandemic, and implications for the carry trade.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Where rates stand currently:<\/strong> The CBE\u2019s overnight deposit rate is now at 8.25% and the lending rate is 9.25%. The main operation and discount rates are now at 8.75%. The central bank has so far cut rates by 400 bps this year, including a record 300 bps cut in March and 50 bps cuts at each of the last two meetings.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Wait and see:<\/strong> \"The central bank will slow down before lowering rates again to assess developments in the global economy, global monetary policy, the pandemic and financial portfolio flows, as well as the impact of the 400 bps of cuts made during 2020,\u201d says Radwa Swaify, head of research at Pharos.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Inflation on the rise:<\/strong> Most analysts cited the recent uptick in inflation in their forecasts, noting that while it remains below its 9% (+\/- 3%) target range, the central bank will likely respond to the rise by leaving rates unchanged. Ahmed Hafez, head of MENA research at Renaissance Capital, notes that rising inflation over the past two months has primarily been in seasonal goods, and sees inflation averaging at 6% through 2021. Arqaam Capital\u2019s Noaman Khalid sees inflation inching up until March and averaging at 7% in 2021, partially because of the base effect.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Do we care about Turkey\u2019s big rate move last month?<\/strong> The Turkish central bank\u2019s huge <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/9bfc8bb1-ca40-4d3a-bb8a-6bf29c8af7e3\">475-bps rate hike<\/a> last month could provide strong competition, according to Sigma Capital\u2019s Abu Bakr Imam, who says that the central bank does not want to lose precious greenbacks.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Maybe not:<\/strong> HC Securities suggests that Egypt\u2019s position as the preeminent EM darling isn\u2019t under threat from Turkey, with its real, after-tax yield of 3.03% comfortably above Turkey, which is now at -1.6%. Egypt also has a lower credit risk profile, increasing the attractiveness of Egyptian paper vis-a-vis Turkey. Still, Ankara is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/turkey-cenbank-int\/turkeys-central-bank-to-hike-rates-another-150-points-idUSKBN28S1DZ\">expected to raise rates by another 150 bps<\/a> when it meets on Thursday.<\/p>\n<p><strong>This is exactly where the CBE wants real rates<\/strong>, according to EFG Hermes\u2019 Mohamed Abu Basha. \u201cWith the return of inflation to normal levels and with the reduction in the previous two meetings, the level of real interest has become in the range of 3%, which is the rate I think the central bank wants to maintain,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The carry trade can withstand significantly lower rates:<\/strong> The central bank could cut rates by another 250-275 bps and Egyptian bonds would still remain attractive to foreign investors, RenCap\u2019s global chief economist, Charles Robertson, wrote in a note over the weekend.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u2018Tis the season:<\/strong> The central bank may also want to hold off on making an adjustment at this time of year given the potential for a muted response during the holiday season, HC Securities says.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Another cut would soften the currency:<\/strong> Further rate cuts would push the EGP down to 16.50-17.00- to the greenback by the end of 2021, making the currency more competitive and avoiding large moves in the medium term, Robertson wrote.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Easing to resume early in 2021:<\/strong> The central bank is likely to resume its easing cycle early in 2021, according to several analysts. HC expects the CBE to make a 100-bps cut in 1Q2021, while RenCap predicts a total of 100-150 bps of over the next 12 months\/<\/p>\n<p><strong>And further into the future:<\/strong> Beltone\u2019s Alia Mamdouh says that the central bank will continue its accommodative stance through to 2023, when it could hike rates by 150 bps due to rising inflation and commodity prices.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ENTERPRISE POLL- The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee holds its final meeting of the year on Thursday, according to an Enterprise poll. All 10 economists and analysts we surveyed expect the central bank to hold off on further easing, citing rising inflation, the ongoing pandemic, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":568134,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7359],"tags":[82,2082,271,611,72,182,349,125,724,7358],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-568133","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-poll","tag-bonds","tag-carry-trade","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-enterprise-poll","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-investment-watch","tag-monetary-policy","tag-poll","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"adc7216b-dc04-42bf-bfe7-af6108c43533","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/325.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[568129],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Hold your horses - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/20\/hold-your-horses\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Hold your horses\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"ENTERPRISE POLL- The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee holds its final meeting of the year on Thursday, according to an Enterprise poll. 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The MPC left the overnight deposit and lending\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":576022,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/08\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-to-leave-rates-on-hold-in-november-amid-covid-us-election-uncertainty\/","url_meta":{"origin":568133,"position":2},"title":"Enterprise Poll: Central bank to leave rates on hold in November amid covid, US election uncertainty","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 November 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- Rates seen left on hold amid covid, US election uncertainty: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will likely keep interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to an Enterprise poll. Six of eight economists and analysts surveyed expect the MPC to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/11\/78.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570452,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/01\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-rates-on-hold-in-april-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":568133,"position":3},"title":"Enterprise Poll: CBE to leave rates on hold in April meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"1 April 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave rates on hold tomorrow: The Central Bank of Egypt is likely to leave interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee meets tomorrow, according to a poll of analysts conducted by Enterprise. Ten of 11 analysts polled expect the bank to leave interest rates\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/4\/4.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":602265,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/24\/enterprise-poll-cbe-could-cut-rates-by-up-to-100-bps-this-thursday\/","url_meta":{"origin":568133,"position":4},"title":"Enterprise poll: CBE could cut rates by up to 100 bps this Thursday","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"24 March 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- CBE could cut key interest rates this Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could cut its key interest rates by 50-100 bps when its Monetary Policy Committee meets this Thursday, six out of 10 economists surveyed by Enterprise said. Respondents cited the EGP\u2019s recent appreciation as well as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":591925,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/12\/22\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-keep-rates-on-hold-in-final-meeting-of-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":568133,"position":5},"title":"Enterprise poll: Central Bank of Egypt to keep rates on hold in final meeting of 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 December 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- Economists expect CBE to keep rates on hold in final meeting of 2019: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to seven of 10 economists polled by Enterprise. This is the lowest rate of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/12\/CBE-1600px.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/568133","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=568133"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/568133\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/568129"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/568134"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=568133"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=568133"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=568133"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=568133"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=568133"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}