{"id":567890,"date":"2020-12-10T04:11:49","date_gmt":"2020-12-10T04:11:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/10\/look-at-banks\/"},"modified":"2020-12-10T04:11:49","modified_gmt":"2020-12-10T04:11:49","slug":"look-at-banks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/10\/look-at-banks\/","title":{"rendered":"Look at banks"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Pharos tips banks, NBFS players, fintech and consumer stocks heading into 2020<\/strong>, our friend Radwa El Swaify and her team at Pharos suggest in their 2021 equity strategy out now. You can tap or click here to read the report in full (pdf)<\/a><\/strong>. <\/strong>It includes solid, deep dives into sectors and shares heading into the new year along with a look at the macro backdrop.<\/p>\n

Good news for traders: Pharos sees the market \u201chas potential for 25-30% rerating\u201d<\/strong> as corporate earnings continue to recover in the coming year. The key to bringing foreign investors back? <\/strong>Fresh IPOs. Foreign investors have been net sellers on a monthly basis since 2019<\/strong> except when they piled into the Fawry IPO, and the trend accelerated during the EM selloff prompted by covid-19.<\/p>\n

Worth a close read: Slide 9<\/strong>, which breaks down 19 themes heading into the new year and which shares benefit from them before going deep later in the report.<\/p>\n

MACRO PICTURE- Low inflation, a stable EGP and early signs of real GDP growth point to smooth sailing <\/strong>for the remainder of FY2020-2021<\/strong>, the team at Pharos writes, even as a widening budget deficit and sluggish state revenues remain caution signs on the horizon.<\/p>\n

Driving the economy: Resources and construction <\/strong>as oil prices recover and the government continues its large-scale national infrastructure projects, pushing real GDP growth back up to 3.9% in FY2020-2021, up from 3.5% last fiscal year.<\/p>\n

The budget deficit will narrow to 7.9% of GDP in FY2020-2021<\/strong>, after having widened to 9.1% last year due to increased spending on fiscal stimulus, Pharos says. Increasing tax receipts will push state revenues up to EGP 1 tn, from EGP 900 bn in FY2019-2020, while spending will increase 4% \u2014 its weakest pace ever \u2014 to hit EGP 1.5 tn, according to Pharos. This is mainly thanks to a falling subsidy bill and a decreased interest burden.<\/p>\n

Foreign debt is on the rise:<\/strong> Although domestic debt has formed the lion\u2019s share of government financing, external debt has more than doubled in the past five years reaching 30% of total debt.<\/p>\n

Inflation will remain stubbornly low<\/strong>, averaging 4.9% through to the end of the current fiscal year \u2014 more than a percentage point below the lower bound of the central bank\u2019s 9% (+\/- 3%) target rate.<\/p>\n

This will pave the way for another 200 bps of interest rate cuts during 2021<\/strong>, taking the overnight lending rate down to 7.25% and the deposit rate to 6.25%. The move would still leave \u201csome room for further easing, especially if global monetary conditions and hard currency inflows into Egypt remain as supportive of lower rates,\u201d the research note said.<\/p>\n

A stable outlook for the EGP <\/strong>will see the nominal exchange rate reach EGP 16.00 to the USD in FY2020-2021 and maintain the same annual average for the following three years.<\/p>\n

Despite further easing, Egyptian treasuries will continue to be attractive to foreign <\/strong>investors<\/strong> relative to other emerging markets. Thanks to the waves of covid stimulus, developed countries are almost universally offering negative yields while rates in most other EMs are now below 5%. In comparison, Egypt currently offers a world-beating 1-year real yield of 7.7%.<\/p>\n

Foriegn reserves will continue to tick up<\/strong>, reaching USD 43 bn by the end of the fiscal year, having hit a low of USD 36 bn in May due to the financial panic caused by the pandemic. Reserves stood at USD 39.2 bn<\/a> at the end of November. BNP Paribas takes a far less generous forecast, putting foreign reserves at USD 38 bn by the end of FY 2020-2021.<\/p>\n

The current account deficit will continue to widen in the short term<\/strong> reaching 4.3% of GDP due to falling tourism revenues, lower remittances, weak FDI inflows and low interest rates around the globe.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pharos tips banks, NBFS players, fintech and consumer stocks heading into 2020, our friend Radwa El Swaify and her team at Pharos suggest in their 2021 equity strategy out now. You can tap or click here to read the report in full (pdf). It includes solid, deep dives into sectors and shares heading into the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":567891,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[864,7106,104,72,3691,182],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-567890","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-budget-deficit","tag-debt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-fy2020-2021-budget","tag-inflation","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"d74263f2-c409-48b7-a435-e61ead5e416a","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/195.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[567886],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nLook at banks - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/10\/look-at-banks\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Look at banks\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Pharos tips banks, NBFS players, fintech and consumer stocks heading into 2020, our friend Radwa El Swaify and her team at Pharos suggest in their 2021 equity strategy out now. 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Central bank data picked up by Al Mal shows assets rose to USD 14.03 bn\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":627246,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/07\/26\/pharos-acts-as-broker-for-mondis-acquisition-of-suez-bags\/","url_meta":{"origin":567890,"position":2},"title":"Pharos acts as broker for Mondi\u2019s acquisition of Suez Bags","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 July 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"M&A WATCH- Mondi to complete MTO of Suez Bags next week: Mondi Paper Sales plans to complete its mandatory tender offer to acquire a 70.1% stake in Suez Bags by 31 July as per the deadline set by the Financial Regulatory Authority, our friend and Pharos Holding Managing Director Essam\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":652540,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/01\/12\/elwy-taymour-ceo-pharos\/","url_meta":{"origin":567890,"position":3},"title":"Elwy Taymour, CEO, Pharos","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 January 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Elwy Taymour is the founder of Pharos, the full-fledged investment bank and top-ranked Egyptian brokerage that\u2019s particularly well-known for its advisory practice, which has handled some of the most interesting M&A transactions in recent years. A quick thinker on markets and the economy, Taymour has earned our respect for his\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE 2017 ENTERPRISE CEO POLL"","block_context":{"text":"THE 2017 ENTERPRISE CEO POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-2017-enterprise-ceo-poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2017\/1\/736.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":543516,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/02\/06\/cbe-leaves-rates-unchanged-in-first-meeting-of-2022\/","url_meta":{"origin":567890,"position":4},"title":"CBE leaves rates unchanged in first meeting of 2022","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 February 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left interest rates on hold for the tenth consecutive meeting on Thursday. 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