{"id":567855,"date":"2020-12-09T03:48:13","date_gmt":"2020-12-09T03:48:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/09\/egypts-macro-picture-in-2021-according-to-beltone\/"},"modified":"2020-12-09T03:48:13","modified_gmt":"2020-12-09T03:48:13","slug":"egypts-macro-picture-in-2021-according-to-beltone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/09\/egypts-macro-picture-in-2021-according-to-beltone\/","title":{"rendered":"Egypt\u2019s macro picture in 2021, according to Beltone"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Egypt\u2019s macro picture in 2021, according to Beltone:<\/strong> The coming 12 months will be characterized by solid economic growth, low inflation and strong investor appetite for Egyptian debt, Beltone Financial said in its annual Macro and Strategy research note. Stimulus measures pushed out by the central bank and the Finance Ministry in response to the pandemic will help normalize business conditions in 2021, resulting in improved PMI readings, more private sector investment, and stronger FX inflows, it said. Key takeaways from the report:<\/p>\n

The economy is expected to grow 3.5% this fiscal year<\/strong>, down only slightly from 3.6% in FY2019-2020, but two percentage points below pre-covid levels. Beltone\u2019s forecast is close to the government\u2019s recent upward revision<\/a> for FY2020-2021 growth, and is in line with forecasts from the IMF<\/a> and Deutsche Bank<\/a>. Fitch Solutions, meanwhile, expects Egypt\u2019s GDP to grow at a 3.2% clip in calendar year 2021 before accelerating to 5.6% in 2022. The research firm now forecasts a quicker-than-expected global economic recovery in 2021 as the covid-19 vaccine is distributed, according to Ahram Online<\/a>. The government forecast<\/a> a growth rate of 2.8-4% in FY2021-2022.<\/p>\n

Egypt\u2019s current account deficit will <\/strong>continue to widen<\/a><\/strong> in FY2020-2021 <\/strong>on the back of a USD 5 bn drop in tourism revenues, which will remain weak as the second wave continues to take hold in Europe. The bank expects the deficit to reach USD 12.6 bn in FY2020-2021, up from USD 11.2 bn over last fiscal year.<\/p>\n

The budget deficit will increase only marginally this fiscal year<\/strong> to 8.2% of GDP from an estimated 7.9% in FY2019-2020. \u201cFiscal buffers have provided economic stimulus with a minimal impact on the budget\u201d and the government \u201cremains broadly on track<\/a>\u201d to meet its deficit reduction targets, it said. Finally, Beltone sees Egypt\u2019s debt-to-GDP at 90.3% in FY2020-2021, up from 80.5% two years earlier.<\/p>\n

Inflation will remain below the central bank\u2019s 9% (+\/- 3%) target range,<\/strong> averaging<\/strong> 4.8% throughout the remainder of the fiscal year<\/strong> and rising only as we enter into FY2021-2022 and as the CBE further cuts interest rates, Beltone said. \u201cRecord low international commodity prices, a stronger EGP, and base effect throughout 2020 have all provided a buffer to domestic inflationary pressure,\u201d Beltone says, noting that price growth could begin to pick up in 3Q2021 due to the global vaccine rollout and higher commodity prices that could accompany a potential detente between China and the incoming Biden administration.<\/p>\n

With low inflation, Beltone believes the CBE will cut rates by at least 100 bps next year. <\/strong>Despite this, sovereign treasury yields will stabilize \u201cat a premium\u201d to the lending rate, keeping yields attractive to foreign investors, the investment bank added.<\/p>\n

The EGP looks set to remain strong<\/strong>, stabilizing at EGP 15.78 to the greenback in 2021 and growing stronger over the next five years.<\/p>\n

Government-led and central bank support, coupled with reduced natural gas prices, will promote a recovery in capex by the end of 2021<\/strong>, the investment bank said. A recovery in capex lending will need private demand to continue growing, as this remains key to unlocking Egypt\u2019s capital spending potential, it added.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Egypt\u2019s macro picture in 2021, according to Beltone: The coming 12 months will be characterized by solid economic growth, low inflation and strong investor appetite for Egyptian debt, Beltone Financial said in its annual Macro and Strategy research note. Stimulus measures pushed out by the central bank and the Finance Ministry in response to the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":567856,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[107,7106,104,72,164,1666,182,724],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-567855","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-covid-19","tag-debt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-equities","tag-exchange-rate","tag-inflation","tag-monetary-policy","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"e3767f89-2a4d-48e6-b05b-3d03dd8851f5","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/173.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[567846],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nEgypt\u2019s macro picture in 2021, according to Beltone - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/09\/egypts-macro-picture-in-2021-according-to-beltone\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Egypt\u2019s macro picture in 2021, according to Beltone\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Egypt\u2019s macro picture in 2021, according to Beltone: The coming 12 months will be characterized by solid economic growth, low inflation and strong investor appetite for Egyptian debt, Beltone Financial said in its annual Macro and Strategy research note. 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The outlook is supported by the country\u2019s track record of fiscal and economic reforms, which authorities continued to enact, and a large economy, \u201cwhich has demonstrated stability and resilience through the global health crisis,\u201d the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: MACRO"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: MACRO","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-macro\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/3\/440.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598689,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/02\/finmin-to-set-new-medium-term-economic-targets-as-global-macro-headwinds-build\/","url_meta":{"origin":567855,"position":2},"title":"FinMin to set new medium-term economic targets as global macro headwinds build","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 June 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"EXCLUSIVE- FinMin to set new medium-term economic targets as global macro headwinds build: The Finance Ministry is on track to specify \u201cmore realistic\u201d medium-term targets for Egypt\u2019s key macro indicators in light of a challenging outlook for global growth and volatility in emerging markets, according to official documents seen by\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/773.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":560825,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/15\/egypt-will-be-back-near-pre-pandemic-growth-rates-by-next-year-afdb\/","url_meta":{"origin":567855,"position":3},"title":"Egypt will be back near pre-pandemic growth rates by next year \u2013AfDB","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 March 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economy will be back near its pre-pandemic growth rate in 2022, coming in at 4.9% compared to the 5.6% recorded in 2019, according to estimates in the African Development Bank\u2019s (AfDB) 2021 Economic Outlook report (pdf). While our economy grew at a 3.6% clip last year \u201cdespite the relatively\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "MACRO"","block_context":{"text":"MACRO","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/macro\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/3\/200.jpeg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":593181,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/20\/egypts-outlook-for-next-year-is-looking-good-says-beltones-alia-mamdouh\/","url_meta":{"origin":567855,"position":4},"title":"Egypt\u2019s outlook for next year is looking good, says Beltone\u2019s Alia Mamdouh","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s outlook for next year is looking good, says Beltone\u2019s Alia Mamdouh: The outlook for Egypt\u2019s GDP growth, EGP performance, and inflation targets is \u201cpositive\u201d in 2020, Beltone Financial\u2019s macro and strategy director Alia Mamdouh tells Bloomberg TV (watch, runtime: 3:36). The EGP\u2019s sustained stability will support the deceleration of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/11\/1196.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":564976,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/10\/inflation-edges-up-in-february-as-education-tobacco-costs-rise\/","url_meta":{"origin":567855,"position":5},"title":"Inflation edges up in February as education, tobacco costs rise","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"10 March 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation accelerated to 4.5% in February, up from 4.3% the previous month, state statistics bureau Capmas\u2019 latest reading (pdf) showed. The increase came after a drop in January, when the headline rate fell from 5.4%, and in December, when it slowed down from November\u2019s five-month high of 5.7%.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: MACRO"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: MACRO","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-macro\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/567855","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=567855"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/567855\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/567846"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/567856"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=567855"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=567855"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=567855"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=567855"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=567855"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}