{"id":567288,"date":"2020-01-19T04:06:32","date_gmt":"2020-01-19T04:06:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/19\/against-analyst-expectations-central-bank-of-egypt-keeps-rates-on-hold\/"},"modified":"2020-01-19T04:06:32","modified_gmt":"2020-01-19T04:06:32","slug":"against-analyst-expectations-central-bank-of-egypt-keeps-rates-on-hold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/19\/against-analyst-expectations-central-bank-of-egypt-keeps-rates-on-hold\/","title":{"rendered":"Against analyst expectations, Central Bank of Egypt keeps rates on hold"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-01\"><\/a><strong> CBE leaves rates on hold:<\/strong> The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left interest rates unchanged when it met on Thursday, the CBE <a href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/MPC-Press-Release-January-16-2020.pdf\">said in a statement (pdf)<\/a>. The central bank cited domestic factors such as <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/7d2b190e-4d13-4356-ad64-f11e3232b3b4\">inflation accelerating in December<\/a> on the back of the dissipating favorable base effect and unemployment increasing slightly in 3Q2019, combined with macro headwinds such as volatility in international oil prices. The MPC had lowered interest rates four times over the course of 2019, delivering a total 450 bps in cuts between February and November. <a href=\"https:\/\/af.reuters.com\/article\/egyptNews\/idAFL8N29L5SN\">Reuters<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2020-01-15\/close-call-faces-real-rate-outlier-egypt-decision-day-guide\">Bloomberg<\/a> also had the story.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Who called it?<\/strong> Only three of the seven economists surveyed in our updated <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/8fa9ee98-ba74-449a-b6a6-2a8c5fa8a8b8\">Enterprise poll<\/a> ahead of the meeting \u2014 Pharos\u2019 Radwa Elswaify, Shuaa Esraa Ahmed, and Beltone\u2019s Alia Mamdouh \u2014 had predicted that the CBE would pause its easing cycle in last week\u2019s meeting. Last month\u2019s inflation figures had pushed some to change their <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/12\/22\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-keep-rates-on-hold-in-final-meeting-of-2019-8827\/\">forecasts from December<\/a>, when the meeting was originally scheduled to take place. Seven of 10 economists we polled at the time had expected rates to remain unchanged.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Capital Economics says the central bank\u2019s decision took it by surprise:<\/strong> The decision \u201csuggested that policymakers want to wait and see the effects of previous policy loosening,\u201d Capital Economics\u2019 senior EM economist Jason Tuvey wrote in a note on Friday.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Where rates now stand:<\/strong> The CBE\u2019s overnight deposit rate remains at 12.25% and its lending rate is at 13.25%. The main operation and discount rates are 12.75%.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The central bank still has room to resume its easing cycle throughout the remainder of 2020<\/strong>, with some analysts saying Thursday\u2019s decision was likely just a brief pause to assess the impact of the 450 bps rate cuts delivered in 2019. \u201cIt was normal to take a breather to monitor the impact of the last two cuts on the market, before the resumption of easing in 1Q2020,\u201d El Swaify \u2014 who is predicting the CBE to make a 100-bps cut this quarter \u2014 told Enterprise. Capital Economics, meanwhile, is maintaining its forecast for the overnight deposit rate to be cut by 225 bps to 10% by the end of the year, although it did not forecast when the central bank will resume the easing cycle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CBE leaves rates on hold: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left interest rates unchanged when it met on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The central bank cited domestic factors such as inflation accelerating in December on the back of the dissipating favorable base effect and unemployment increasing slightly [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":567289,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[271,72,182,349,724,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-567288","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"c9b240b5-0003-4a9d-9748-53c9b6f53fab","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/632.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[567283],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Against analyst expectations, Central Bank of Egypt keeps rates on hold - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/19\/against-analyst-expectations-central-bank-of-egypt-keeps-rates-on-hold\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Against analyst expectations, Central Bank of Egypt keeps rates on hold\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"CBE leaves rates on hold: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left interest rates unchanged when it met on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). 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The bank\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/5\/169.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":599519,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/01\/02\/central-bank-of-egypt-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged-at-final-mpc-meeting-of-2018\/","url_meta":{"origin":567288,"position":1},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt leaves interest rates unchanged at final MPC meeting of 2018","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 January 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt left key interest rates on hold last Thursday, citing global monetary policy tightening, trade wars and volatility in the oil market. The bank\u2019s monetary policy committee left the overnight deposit and lending rates at 16.75% and 17.75%, respectively, and also left on hold its main\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":595490,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/09\/29\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-rates-by-100-bps-in-line-with-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":567288,"position":2},"title":"Central Bank of Egypt cuts rates by 100 bps, in line with expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 September 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"In line with expectations, CBE cuts rates: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut interest rates by 100 bps on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The central bank cited last month\u2019s inflation figures, which hit a six-year low, as well as declining unemployment and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596953,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/07\/14\/cbe-plays-it-safe-and-leaves-rates-on-hold-in-july\/","url_meta":{"origin":567288,"position":3},"title":"CBE plays it safe and leaves rates on hold in July","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 July 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE plays it safe and leaves rates on hold: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left key interest rates unchanged on Thursday, the CBE said in a statement (pdf). The MPC left the overnight deposit and lending rates at 15.75% and 16.75%, respectively, and kept the main\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594183,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/22\/fitch-forecasts-50-bps-rate-cut-in-november-mpc-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":567288,"position":4},"title":"Fitch forecasts 50 bps rate cut in November MPC meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch Solutions expects the CBE to cut interest rates by 0.5% before the end of the year, and 1.5% in 2020, Masrawy said, citing a report. The data vendor arm of the ratings agency said that easing inflation and the two consecutive rate cuts in the US will encourage the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":591925,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/12\/22\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-keep-rates-on-hold-in-final-meeting-of-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":567288,"position":5},"title":"Enterprise poll: Central Bank of Egypt to keep rates on hold in final meeting of 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 December 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- Economists expect CBE to keep rates on hold in final meeting of 2019: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to seven of 10 economists polled by Enterprise. This is the lowest rate of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/12\/CBE-1600px.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/567288","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=567288"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/567288\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/567283"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/567289"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=567288"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=567288"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=567288"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=567288"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=567288"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}