{"id":567095,"date":"2020-01-13T04:20:05","date_gmt":"2020-01-13T04:20:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/13\/analysts-split-on-interest-rates-ahead-of-thursdays-cbe-meeting\/"},"modified":"2020-01-13T04:20:05","modified_gmt":"2020-01-13T04:20:05","slug":"analysts-split-on-interest-rates-ahead-of-thursdays-cbe-meeting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/13\/analysts-split-on-interest-rates-ahead-of-thursdays-cbe-meeting\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts split on interest rates ahead of Thursday\u2019s CBE meeting"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-01\"><\/a><strong> SURVEY- Analysts split on interest rates ahead of Thursday\u2019s CBE meeting.<\/strong> A poll conducted by Enterprise over the weekend shows no consensus among analysts about whether the central bank will cut interest rates when its <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/686d5a40-222a-452c-b733-501399f7b19e\">new Monetary Policy Committee<\/a> meets on Thursday. Four of the seven analysts we polled predicted the central bank would cut rates, while three see the MPC leaving rates on hold. Seven of 10 economists we had <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/12\/22\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-keep-rates-on-hold-in-final-meeting-of-2019-8827\/\">polled in December<\/a>, when the meeting was originally scheduled to take place, saw rates being left unchanged.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The CBE cut rates by <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/11\/17\/central-bank-of-egypt-cuts-interest-rates-by-100-bps-6356\/\">100 bps in November<\/a><\/strong><strong>,<\/strong> capping a year of accelerated easing that saw 450 bps in rate cuts between February and November. The overnight deposit rate currently stands at 12.25%, the lending rate at 13.25%, and the main operation and discount rates at 12.75%.<\/p>\n<p><strong>December\u2019s inflation reading seems to have changed a couple of minds,<\/strong> with EFG Hermes\u2019 Mohamed Abu Basha and Renaissance Capital\u2019s Ahmez Hafez now predicting cuts. The annual urban inflation rate effectively <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/7d2b190e-4d13-4356-ad64-f11e3232b3b4\">doubled to 7.1% last month<\/a> due to rising food prices. Abu Basha suggested that this shows inflation has now \u201cnormalized,\u201d providing the CBE with space to cut rates by 50-100 bps. Meanwhile, Hafez is calling a 100-bps cut citing the second consecutive reading of monthly deflation.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Others cite rising inflation as a reason for staying put:<\/strong> Pharos head of research Radwa El Swaify maintained her forecast for a hold due to the pickup in inflation and increasing geopolitical risks. Shuaa senior economist Esraa Ahmed also said that inflation \u2014 along with rising commodity prices \u2014 will persuade the central bank to pause this week.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Global easing trends could persuade the central bank to cut,<\/strong> according to HC Securities chief economist Monette Doss, who became more dovish from December. She now predicts a 100-bps cut compared to 50 bps last month.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The CBE will likely hit pause to \u201ctest liquidity levels\u201d<\/strong> after a year of \u201cbold interest rate reduction decisions,\u201d Beltone\u2019s Alia Mamdouh said, maintaining her forecast from December.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Inflation predictions vary but all see prices remaining within the CBE\u2019s target range:<\/strong> The strength of the EGP and the government\u2019s decision to hold fuel prices will ensure that inflation is maintained within the 9% (\u00b1 3%) range<strong>,<\/strong> Mamdouh said. Capital Economics\u2019 senior EM economist Jason Tuvey wrote in a note last week that prices will not rise above the midpoint of the CBE\u2019s target range, leading him to believe that the central bank will opt to cut by 50 bps this week. El Swaify sees inflation falling back to around 5% by February, while Doss forecasts inflation to average 5.7% during the first half of 2020.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Going forward:<\/strong> Although she sees little chance of a cut this week, El Swaify remains confident the CBE will take its hand off the brake in the next two months, predicting a 100-bps cut by the end of the first quarter. Meanwhile, Capital Economics is sticking with its <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.press\/stories\/2019\/10\/27\/egypt-to-be-the-regions-star-performer-in-2020-capital-economics\/\">prediction from last year<\/a> of a 325-bps cumulative cut through 2020, which would return the overnight deposit rate to pre-float levels of 10.00%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>SURVEY- Analysts split on interest rates ahead of Thursday\u2019s CBE meeting. A poll conducted by Enterprise over the weekend shows no consensus among analysts about whether the central bank will cut interest rates when its new Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday. Four of the seven analysts we polled predicted the central bank would cut [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":567096,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8572],"tags":[7106,72,7087,724,2380],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-567095","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round","tag-debt","tag-enterpriseam","tag-finance","tag-monetary-policy","tag-speed-round","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"8fa9ee98-ba74-449a-b6a6-2a8c5fa8a8b8","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/581.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[567090],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Analysts split on interest rates ahead of Thursday\u2019s CBE meeting - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/13\/analysts-split-on-interest-rates-ahead-of-thursdays-cbe-meeting\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Analysts split on interest rates ahead of Thursday\u2019s CBE meeting\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"SURVEY- Analysts split on interest rates ahead of Thursday\u2019s CBE meeting. A poll conducted by Enterprise over the weekend shows no consensus among analysts about whether the central bank will cut interest rates when its new Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday. Four of the seven analysts we polled predicted the central bank would cut [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/13\/analysts-split-on-interest-rates-ahead-of-thursdays-cbe-meeting\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EnterpriseAM Egypt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-01-13T04:20:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/581.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/13\/analysts-split-on-interest-rates-ahead-of-thursdays-cbe-meeting\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/13\/analysts-split-on-interest-rates-ahead-of-thursdays-cbe-meeting\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"enterpriseam admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d\"},\"headline\":\"Analysts split on interest rates ahead of Thursday\u2019s CBE meeting\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-01-13T04:20:05+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/13\/analysts-split-on-interest-rates-ahead-of-thursdays-cbe-meeting\/\"},\"wordCount\":512,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/13\/analysts-split-on-interest-rates-ahead-of-thursdays-cbe-meeting\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/581.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\",\"keywords\":[\"debt\",\"EnterpriseAM\",\"Finance\",\"monetary policy\",\"SPEED ROUND\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Speed Round\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/13\/analysts-split-on-interest-rates-ahead-of-thursdays-cbe-meeting\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/01\/13\/analysts-split-on-interest-rates-ahead-of-thursdays-cbe-meeting\/\",\"name\":\"Analysts split on interest rates ahead of Thursday\u2019s CBE meeting - 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The central bank cited domestic factors such as inflation accelerating in December on the back of the dissipating favorable base\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/1\/632.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":569366,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/02\/23\/cbe-leaves-rates-on-hold-for-second-consecutive-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":567095,"position":1},"title":"CBE leaves rates on hold for second consecutive meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"23 February 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE leaves rates on hold for second consecutive meeting: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday, citing inflation and macro headwinds, according to an official statement (pdf). Uptick in inflation a key factor in the CBE\u2019s decision: The CBE\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/2\/278.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":675717,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/11\/18\/analysts-split-on-interest-rates-ahead-of-cbe-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":567095,"position":2},"title":"Analysts split on interest rates ahead of CBE meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 November 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Four out of the 11 analysts we surveyed expect a 50-100 bps rate cut,","rel":"","context":"In &quot;POLL&quot;","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2024\/11\/178.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598209,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/19\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-maintain-rates-despite-drop-in-april-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":567095,"position":3},"title":"Enterprise poll: Central Bank of Egypt to maintain rates despite drop in April inflation","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 May 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- CBE to leave key interest rates on hold this Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will likely leave key interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee meets this Thursday, according to all 12 economists polled by Enterprise. Respondents cited the likely impact on inflation of upcoming\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570452,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/01\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-rates-on-hold-in-april-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":567095,"position":4},"title":"Enterprise Poll: CBE to leave rates on hold in April meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"1 April 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave rates on hold tomorrow: The Central Bank of Egypt is likely to leave interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee meets tomorrow, according to a poll of analysts conducted by Enterprise. Ten of 11 analysts polled expect the bank to leave interest rates\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/4\/4.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":668262,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/07\/13\/cbe-holds-interest-rates-steady-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":567095,"position":5},"title":"CBE holds interest rates steady","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 July 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The central bank will be monitoring inflation risks and the impact of recent VAT amendments","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/5\/1944.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/567095","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=567095"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/567095\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/567090"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/567096"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=567095"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=567095"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=567095"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=567095"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=567095"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}