{"id":566708,"date":"2021-07-08T13:24:03","date_gmt":"2021-07-08T13:24:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/07\/08\/monthly-prices-in-urban-egypt-hold-steady-keeping-inflation-in-check\/"},"modified":"2021-07-08T13:24:03","modified_gmt":"2021-07-08T13:24:03","slug":"monthly-prices-in-urban-egypt-hold-steady-keeping-inflation-in-check","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/07\/08\/monthly-prices-in-urban-egypt-hold-steady-keeping-inflation-in-check\/","title":{"rendered":"Monthly prices in urban Egypt hold steady, keeping inflation in check"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Annual urban inflation inched up slightly in June, at a pace slower than everyone had <\/strong>expected, <\/strong>thanks to a favorable base effect and a slowdown in the growth of monthly food prices. Figures released today by state statistics bureau Capmas showed the headline rate accelerated to 4.9% at the end of the month, up from 4.8% in May<\/a>. Despite being the highest headline reading so far into the year, the urban figures were still more muted than analysts and policymakers had penciled in.<\/p>\n

T<\/strong>he overall rate in <\/strong>both urban and rural areas (pdf)<\/a><\/strong>, however,<\/strong> rose more sharply<\/strong> to 5.3% in June from 4.9% a month earlier.<\/p>\n

Inflation continued to cool down on a monthly basis:<\/strong> Urban prices rose only 0.2% during June, compared to 0.7% the previous month.<\/p>\n

Food prices were kind to us this time around: <\/strong>A sub-gauge measuring food items only edged up 0.2% over May, despite registering a 3.4% uptick over last year. This was much lower than the 1.5% m-o-m growth in urban food prices between April and May.<\/p>\n

Other goods and services including education, health, and utilities<\/strong> also rose nationwide on an annual basis but remained largely unchanged from May.<\/p>\n

Were the figures in line with expectations? Not at the slightest. <\/strong>\u201cThe annual rate comes below our estimate of 5.5% as we had expected a higher monthly change of 0.7%, maintaining last month\u2019s momentum,\u201d Beltone\u2019s director of macro and strategy Alia Mamdouh said. Pharos Holding\u2019s head of research Radwa Elswaify and Naeem Brokerage\u2019s Allen Sandeep echoed Mamdouh, noting that they had expected a higher annual reading and that monthly prices bucked the trend of spiraling global commodity prices.<\/p>\n

Analysts and policymakers alike had expected the increase to be more significant, <\/strong>citing unfavorable near-term base effects and the global commodities<\/a> boom that began late last year and hit everything from food to energy to key metals.<\/p>\n

But the signs are still pointing to more inflationary pressures in coming months: <\/strong>Inflation is seen picking up this month and in August, after the new round of electricity price hikes<\/a> took effect at the start of the state\u2019s fiscal year last week, says Sandeep. \u201cWe expect that the headline rate will rise further over the coming months largely on the back of stronger food and energy inflation,\u201d Capital Economics, meanwhile, said in a research note, adding that higher global commodity prices and freight charges, as well as supply shortages, will also weigh in on the headline reading.<\/p>\n

Not so fast, says Elswaify: <\/strong>Elswaify, however, suggested that any increase we see down the road will be better explained by base year effects and not the macro pressures noted. Even then, we will still be less than the 5.5% some analysts had earlier expected.<\/p>\n

Inflationary pressures have been largely muted since the start of 2021,<\/strong> shrugging off the global commodities boom<\/a>, which took a while to filter through here at home. The cycle began to catch up in May, leading to a spike in food prices and a 70 basis points increase in the annual rate. Before that, inflation unexpectedly slowed to 4.1% in April<\/a>, after having held steady at 4.5% in March<\/a> from February<\/a> and even dropped in January to its lowest level since September 2020<\/a>.<\/p>\n

How will this factor into the upcoming CBE decision? <\/strong>Analysts still unilaterally agree that the CBE\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting in August. While there\u2019s room for a rate cut on the back of slower-than-expected inflation, the MPC will opt for a hold to protect inflows into sovereign debt and as there\u2019s \u201cpolitical anticipation of developments in the GERD dispute,\u201d Elswaify says. Alia Mamdouh, Prime Holdings\u2019 Mona Bedier and Capital Economics are also penciling in a hold on rates at the coming meeting. The latest inflation reading remains below the CBE\u2019s inflation target of 7% (\u00b12 ) on average by 4Q2022.<\/p>\n

The MPC is due to meet on 5 August.<\/strong> Policymakers left rates on hold for the fifth consecutive time last month<\/a>, as they looked to preempt a possible rise in inflation on the back of the commodities cycle. The central bank slashed rates by 400 bps last year, including an emergency 300-bps cut in March<\/a> to protect the economy from the fallout from covid-19, as well as two 50-bps cuts in September<\/a> and November<\/a>.<\/p>\n

IN OTHER MACRO NEWS-<\/strong><\/p>\n

Remittances from Egyptian abroad rose to USD 2.5 bn in April, <\/strong>up 34% y-o-y from USD 1.8 bn April 2020, the CBE said in a press release (pdf)<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Annual urban inflation inched up slightly in June, at a pace slower than everyone had expected, thanks to a favorable base effect and a slowdown in the growth of monthly food prices. Figures released today by state statistics bureau Capmas showed the headline rate accelerated to 4.9% at the end of the month, up from […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":566709,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10034],"tags":[104,633,182,724],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-566708","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterprisepm","tag-inflation","tag-monetary-policy","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"cbe1f778-c531-4f1d-869e-7bc2c2b06833","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/7\/362.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[566704],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nMonthly prices in urban Egypt hold steady, keeping inflation in check - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/07\/08\/monthly-prices-in-urban-egypt-hold-steady-keeping-inflation-in-check\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monthly prices in urban Egypt hold steady, keeping inflation in check\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Annual urban inflation inched up slightly in June, at a pace slower than everyone had expected, thanks to a favorable base effect and a slowdown in the growth of monthly food prices. 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The headline urban rate climbed to 5.4%, up from 4.9% in June, as the government hiked fuel and electricity costs. Headline prices rose 0.9% on a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/8\/401.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":542673,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/11\/urban-inflation-rises-to-5-9-in-december-below-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":566708,"position":1},"title":"Urban inflation rises to 5.9% in December, below expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 January 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation rose to 5.9% in December from 5.6% in November, ending a two-month downward trend despite a slowdown in food price inflation, according to figures released yesterday by statistics agency Capmas. 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Urban inflation rose to 7.3% last month from 5.9%in December, recording its highest rate since\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/2\/156.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":557230,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/09\/12\/inflation-continues-upwards-trend-in-august-hitting-5-7\/","url_meta":{"origin":566708,"position":3},"title":"Inflation continues upwards trend in August, hitting 5.7%","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 September 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation hit its highest level in nine months in August on the back of rising food, fuel and transportation costs, according to figures released on Thursday. Headline urban inflation rose slightly to 5.7% in August, up from 5.4% in July, according to state statistics agency Capmas. That\u2019s the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/9\/141.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":669907,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/08\/11\/inflation-cools-for-second-consecutive-month-to-13-9-in-july\/","url_meta":{"origin":566708,"position":4},"title":"Inflation cools for second consecutive month to 13.9% in July","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 August 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The decline is mainly attributed to an easing in food and beverages prices, which rose 3.4% y-o-y in July","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/2\/945.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":553861,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/12\/urban-inflation-dips-to-lowest-level-since-july\/","url_meta":{"origin":566708,"position":5},"title":"Urban inflation dips to lowest level since July","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 December 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation slowed for the second month running in November as pressure on food prices continued to ease, according to official figures released on Thursday. The headline rate fell to 5.6% last month from 6.3% in October, the lowest rate since July and within the lower end of the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/12\/291.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/566708","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=566708"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/566708\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/afternoon\/566704"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/566709"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=566708"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=566708"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=566708"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=566708"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=566708"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}