{"id":566109,"date":"2021-05-27T13:54:42","date_gmt":"2021-05-27T13:54:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/05\/27\/the-end-of-times-for-the-usd\/"},"modified":"2021-05-27T13:54:42","modified_gmt":"2021-05-27T13:54:42","slug":"the-end-of-times-for-the-usd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/05\/27\/the-end-of-times-for-the-usd\/","title":{"rendered":"The end of times for the USD?"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> It\u2019s Groundhog Day: There\u2019s talk of the USD\u2019s dominance being under threat as<\/strong> the global reserve currency.<\/strong> We know, we\u2019ve talked about this possibility what seems like two dozen times before \u2014 and the world has speculated that the USD would exit stage right for at least forty years. But there are new indications that now it\u2019s for real, says the Financial Times<\/a>. Among those indications is a warning from bn\u2019aire US fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller \u2014 who correctly anticipated Brexit \u2014 that there is excess USD demand coinciding with inflation and a weaker USD.<\/p>\n

The risk of a USD demise has been compounded by conditions created by covid-19, but the signs appeared before the pandemic<\/strong>, the salmon-colored paper says. For one, global central banks have been relying less and less on the USD as their foreign currency, with an IMF survey finding that USD accounted for the lowest share of central banks\u2019 reserves in 25 years. This downward trend makes sense when we consider that the USD was the most dominant foreign currency when it was also the world\u2019s most dominant industrial producer; now, the US does not account for the lion\u2019s share of global production, making it logical for the USD to take a backseat as a reserve currency.<\/p>\n

Altogether, the USD\u2019s dominance is unquestionably declining.<\/strong> But there are still threats that could make the situation even worse: economic and financial mismanagement; insufficient liquidity in the US government bond market, which therefore undermines USD\u2019s status as a safe haven asset; and more dysfunctional politics like we saw with Agent Orange, who wreaked havoc in the US political system and exposed \u201cunexpected weaknesses.\u201d<\/p>\n

So, where do we go from here?<\/strong> There are some \u2014 including IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath \u2014 who believe that traditional currencies, such as the EUR and RMB, can take over the USD with some \u201cold-fashioned development of institutions to improve the eurozone\u2019s architecture and resilience, and stronger domestic institutions and further liberalization of markets in China.\u201d<\/p>\n

Others are speculating that the USD\u2019s successor is going to be a synthetic hegemonic currency <\/strong>that would be \u201cprovided through a network of digital currencies issued by central banks.\u201d<\/p>\n

This hypothesis is far from novel:<\/strong> There\u2019s been chatter for years<\/a> that digital currencies could swoop in and take the USD\u2019s place as the global reserve currency, partially because they are faster and cheaper than conventional money. Central bankers, including former Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, have said that Central Bank Digital Currencies \u2014 a digital token or instrument that can be used for payments or a stable asset and is part of central bank-controlled money supply \u2014 not only could, but should replace the USD as the world\u2019s reserve currency.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s Groundhog Day: There\u2019s talk of the USD\u2019s dominance being under threat as the global reserve currency. We know, we\u2019ve talked about this possibility what seems like two dozen times before \u2014 and the world has speculated that the USD would exit stage right for at least forty years. But there are new indications that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":566110,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7250],"tags":[633,1318,643,117],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-566109","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-macro-picture","tag-enterprisepm","tag-fiscal-policy","tag-macro-picture","tag-us","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"082ee360-787c-44c7-a60f-eeb840cf37fa","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/5\/470.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[566097],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nThe end of times for the USD? - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/05\/27\/the-end-of-times-for-the-usd\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The end of times for the USD?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It\u2019s Groundhog Day: There\u2019s talk of the USD\u2019s dominance being under threat as the global reserve currency. We know, we\u2019ve talked about this possibility what seems like two dozen times before \u2014 and the world has speculated that the USD would exit stage right for at least forty years. 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EMs have racked up significant debts since the 2008 global financial crisis, and are scheduled to repay nearly USD 800 bn-worth of debt on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/11\/1221.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":591667,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/12\/12\/how-do-analysts-feel-about-emerging-markets-going-into-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":566109,"position":1},"title":"How do analysts feel about emerging markets going into 2020?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 December 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"How do analysts feel about emerging markets going into 2020? Emerging markets are set to outperform developed markets in 2020, predict 57 global investors, traders and strategists in a Bloomberg survey, with all assets \u2014 currencies, stocks, and bonds \u2014 having rallied this year after 2018\u2019s EM Zombie Apocalypse. Total\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/12\/2354.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":564451,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/02\/07\/were-happy-when-ems-score-usd-53-5-bn-in-a-month\/","url_meta":{"origin":566109,"position":2},"title":"We\u2019re happy when EMs score USD 53.5 bn in a month","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 February 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Emerging markets posted their tenth consecutive month of positive net portfolio inflows, a sign that EMs are in favor with global investors, according to the Institute of International Finance\u2019s (IIF) monthly capital flows tracker picked up by Reuters. EM stocks and bonds attracted some USD 53.5 bn of net inflows\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Macro picture"","block_context":{"text":"Macro picture","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/explainers\/macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/2\/415.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":594326,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/10\/27\/usd-debt-exposure-an-achilles-heel-for-ems-right-now-fitch-says\/","url_meta":{"origin":566109,"position":3},"title":"USD debt exposure an Achilles\u2019 heel for EMs right now, Fitch says","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 October 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"USD debt exposure an Achilles\u2019 heel for EMs right now, Fitch says: Of all the macro issues emerging markets have to worry about, the biggest concern for them at the current moment is their exposure to USD-denominated external debt as the USD strengthens, Fitch Solutions\u2019 Michael Larson said in a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/10\/2055.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":573229,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/07\/26\/mena-gdp-to-crash-5-7-this-year-un\/","url_meta":{"origin":566109,"position":4},"title":"MENA GDP to crash 5.7% this year -UN","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 July 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s not looking pretty for MENA economies if this UN report is anything to go by: MENA economies are expected to contract by a collective 5.7% this year because of the covid-19 pandemic, according to a UN report (pdf) released on Thursday. This would represent an overall loss of USD\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/7\/203.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":599428,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/06\/27\/the-good-times-will-continue-to-roll-if-egypt-secures-a-new-pact-with-the-imf-efg-hermes\/","url_meta":{"origin":566109,"position":5},"title":"The good times will continue to roll if Egypt secures a new pact with the IMF \u2013EFG Hermes","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"27 June 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The good times will continue to roll if Egypt secures a new pact with the IMF: Plans to sign a post-program non-financial agreement with IMF will help Egypt maintain its position as the world\u2019s most attractive carry trade, Mohamed Abu Basha, EFG Hermes\u2019 head of macro analysis, tells Bloomberg. Finance\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/6\/1836.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/566109","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=566109"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/566109\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/afternoon\/566097"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/566110"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=566109"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=566109"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=566109"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=566109"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=566109"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}