{"id":565373,"date":"2021-04-05T13:49:40","date_gmt":"2021-04-05T13:49:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/05\/brace-yourself-for-record-but-uneven-global-growth-this-year\/"},"modified":"2021-04-05T13:49:40","modified_gmt":"2021-04-05T13:49:40","slug":"brace-yourself-for-record-but-uneven-global-growth-this-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/05\/brace-yourself-for-record-but-uneven-global-growth-this-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Brace yourself for record (but uneven) global growth this year"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> World economy to face uneven growth post-pandemic despite a speedy recovery, says <\/strong>Bloomberg<\/strong>:<\/strong> The global economy, on average, is on pace for 2021 to register its fastest growth rate in over half a century, but it could take a while for some countries to join a post-pandemic charge which the US and China are leading.<\/p>\n

The rebound is expected to see the world economy growing at a 6.9% clip this year<\/strong>, the fastest pace on record since the 1960s, Bloomberg Economics<\/a> forecasts. Optimism is driven by the threat of covid-19 finally tapering down, seemingly endless US stimulus, and pent-up spending from USD tns-worth of savings. Talk of a more optimistic outlook comes as the IMF \/ World Bank Spring Meetings<\/a> kicked off today, bringing together policy and business leaders to discuss the outlook for global economic growth.<\/p>\n

Expect more optimistic prospects for global growth from the IMF<\/strong>, with improved forecasts owed to the US expanding stimulus and its successful vaccine rollout plan, the Washington-based lender\u2019s Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said last month<\/a>. The recovery, however, is penciled in to turn out uneven, with only \u201ca small group of countries \u2026 well ahead of their pre-crisis GDP levels, Georgieva said.<\/p>\n

Who\u2019s lagging behind? The EU, Japan, and most emerging markets<\/strong>, Bloomberg Economics finds. The former two heavyweights are contracting. Parts of Europe are still in lockdown amid obstacles to vaccine rollouts<\/a> and a joint stimulus fund on hold<\/a>, and the story is quite similar in Japan<\/a>, whose large population is leading to vaccine stumbling blocks and its stimulus measures falling short of those of the US.<\/p>\n

Over in the EM-verse, there are lots of vulnerabilities to be tested. <\/strong>Many EMs remain exposed to elevated borrowing costs as rising US interest rates draw capital away. Borrowing problems pose \u201cmajor challenges\u201d and especially to middle-income countries with large financing needs and large debt stocks, Georgieva said in a virtual speech last month<\/a> ahead of the spring meetings. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres is also speaking along the same lines, warning that a large number of EM economies are being put at serious risk of default.<\/p>\n

Brazil, Russia and India are also being outpaced by China. <\/strong>The world\u2019s second-largest economy has already been successful in driving a post-covid rebound after having emerged from the health crisis before everyone else, and is now comfortable winding back some of its pandemic-era stimulus, suggest Bloomberg<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Where does Egypt stand? <\/strong>Despite growth figures falling short of pre-covid targets and expectations, we were relatively better off compared to much of the world. The economy was able to avoid a contraction, growing at a 3.6% clip in 2020, and is expected to achieve near pre-pandemic rates in 2022, the African Development Bank said in its 2021 Economic Outlook<\/a>. The country\u2019s debt levels also increased by a smaller amount than its MENA peers<\/a>, thanks to a primary budget surplus and fiscal buffers that had been rebuilt through the IMF-backed reform program that ended in 2019. Covid-19, however, put pressure on the government\u2019s short-term refinancing needs and widened Egypt\u2019s current account deficit<\/a> as it brought tourism, a key source of revenue and output growth, to a complete standstill during much of 2020.<\/p>\n

How exposed are we to rising US yields?<\/strong> In the short and medium-term, not by much, analysts we spoke withlast month tell us<\/a>. And while other EMs have been seeing outflows as a result of higher US treasury yields, Egypt has largely skirted that fate<\/a>. That said, a long-term increase in US treasury yields and the return of inflation globally (as the world recovers from the pandemic) could create issues for foreign portfolio investment down the road, they tell us.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

World economy to face uneven growth post-pandemic despite a speedy recovery, says Bloomberg: The global economy, on average, is on pace for 2021 to register its fastest growth rate in over half a century, but it could take a while for some countries to join a post-pandemic charge which the US and China are leading. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":565374,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9272],"tags":[107,115,633,272,1510,321],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-565373","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-macro-picture","tag-covid-19","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterprisepm","tag-imf","tag-the-macro-picture","tag-world-bank","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"46c54f60-e72c-4ff0-bb4d-0b06f2fa59f5","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/4\/340.jpeg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[565358],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nBrace yourself for record (but uneven) global growth this year - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/05\/brace-yourself-for-record-but-uneven-global-growth-this-year\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Brace yourself for record (but uneven) global growth this year\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"World economy to face uneven growth post-pandemic despite a speedy recovery, says Bloomberg: The global economy, on average, is on pace for 2021 to register its fastest growth rate in over half a century, but it could take a while for some countries to join a post-pandemic charge which the US and China are leading. 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and incomplete\u201d despite progress made in the region since the start of the year and a slightly more optimistic growth outlook, the IMF said in an update to its Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":561429,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/07\/imf-more-upbeat-on-global-growth-says-covid-end-increasingly-visible\/","url_meta":{"origin":565373,"position":1},"title":"IMF more upbeat on global growth, says covid-end \u201cincreasingly visible\u201d","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 April 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The IMF sees the global economy growing this year at a faster pace than previously expected, saying in its updated World Economic Outlook that it now expects global growth to come in at 6% \u2014 0.5 percentage points higher than the 5.5% growth it had penciled in three months ago\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/4\/60.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":566201,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/02\/its-good-news-bad-news-from-the-oecd\/","url_meta":{"origin":565373,"position":2},"title":"It\u2019s good news \/ bad news from the OECD","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 June 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The OECD is out with its latest global economic outlook \u2014 and there\u2019s good news and bad news. The good news is that the world\u2019s most advanced economies look set to stage a stronger-than-anticipated recovery, returning to pre-covid levels by next year. The bad news? 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Together, governments plugged in an amount equal to 2.5%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/11\/189.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567855,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/09\/egypts-macro-picture-in-2021-according-to-beltone\/","url_meta":{"origin":565373,"position":4},"title":"Egypt\u2019s macro picture in 2021, according to Beltone","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"9 December 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s macro picture in 2021, according to Beltone: The coming 12 months will be characterized by solid economic growth, low inflation and strong investor appetite for Egyptian debt, Beltone Financial said in its annual Macro and Strategy research note. Stimulus measures pushed out by the central bank and the Finance\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/173.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":556832,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/20\/uneven-mena-vaccine-rollouts-threaten-regional-recovery-imf-regional-economic-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":565373,"position":5},"title":"Uneven MENA vaccine rollouts threaten regional recovery - IMF Regional Economic Outlook","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"20 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The post-covid recovery in Egypt and MENA continues to be \u201cuneven and incomplete\u201d with countries that had made strong progress in vaccination (including Joran, Morocco and Tunisia) likely to recover quicker than those with more sluggish rollouts, like Egypt, the IMF said in its latest Regional Economic Outlook (pdf). Though\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/450.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/565373","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=565373"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/565373\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/afternoon\/565358"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/565374"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=565373"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=565373"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=565373"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=565373"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=565373"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}