{"id":565050,"date":"2021-03-15T14:00:10","date_gmt":"2021-03-15T14:00:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/15\/sp-says-ems-have-a-long-way-to-go-to-recovery\/"},"modified":"2021-03-15T14:00:10","modified_gmt":"2021-03-15T14:00:10","slug":"sp-says-ems-have-a-long-way-to-go-to-recovery","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/15\/sp-says-ems-have-a-long-way-to-go-to-recovery\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P says EMs have a long way to go to recovery"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Governments in the emerging world have few bullets left in the policy chamber to fight <\/strong>the pandemic<\/strong>, making a speedy vaccine rollout and a swift recovery all the more important, S&P Global has said in its 2021 Global Outlook<\/a>. \u201cMost EMs have limited flexibility to provide additional fiscal or monetary support without hurting their credit quality,\u201d meaning that reforms will be critical to boost growth, productivity and tax revenues,\u201d the ratings agency writes.<\/p>\n

Not many of the 16 biggest EMs have a lot of leeway to accrue more debt:<\/strong> The ratings agency has either downgraded or revised its outlook to negative for eight of the 16 major EMs while five still carry negative outlooks \u2014 Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Indonesia, and Malaysia. And because S&P\u2019s methodology doesn\u2019t permit corporate and banking ratings to exceed the sovereign, further downgrades could also mean lower ratings throughout the economy, pushing up debt costs and restricting access to credit.<\/p>\n

Where is the corporate recovery going to come from?<\/strong> S&P expects that consumer staples, essential retail, healthcare, telecom and tech companies will see earnings in emerging markets return to pre-pandemic levels this year, while most sectors will stage a complete rebound in 2022.<\/p>\n

Other sectors will need to wait another two years to see a full recovery:<\/strong> Hospitality, tourism, airlines and non-essential retail firms won\u2019t recover until 2023, the ratings agency suggests.<\/p>\n

Banks have so far been able to minimize damage to their portfolios:<\/strong> Emergency measures taken to ease pressure on borrowers and buffer banks\u2019 capital reserves and liquidity have meant that loan losses have so far been minimal. \u201cKey EM banks have been able to delay the effect of the pandemic on their portfolios mainly by extending payment holidays and adopting more lenient accounting for these loans,\u201d S&P says.<\/p>\n

But this will change if things don\u2019t start improving soon:<\/strong> \u201cA deeper and longer economic shock will put additional strain on banks\u2019 asset quality, fueled by mounting SME bankruptcies and unemployment.\u201d<\/p>\n

The recovery is slower than anticipated:<\/strong> The recent escalation of the pandemic in many EMs and developed countries will weigh on economic activity through 1Q2021, S&P says.<\/p>\n

But China could make all the difference in the second half of the year<\/strong>, particularly to EMs reliant on commodity exports such as Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia.<\/p>\n

But what are the key risks?<\/strong><\/p>\n

#1 A slower recovery:<\/strong> A longer, more drawn out global recovery or slow vaccine rollouts will likely result in higher debts and more pressure on public finances, resulting in credit downgrades. Companies could also see their ratings slide should further economic disruption hit earnings, potentially resulting in bankruptcies among those rated B and lower.<\/p>\n

#2 Crowds on the streets:<\/strong> Rising levels of poverty, fraying public services and growing frustration with lockdown restrictions could provoke social unrest and political instability should these trends remain unaddressed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Governments in the emerging world have few bullets left in the policy chamber to fight the pandemic, making a speedy vaccine rollout and a swift recovery all the more important, S&P Global has said in its 2021 Global Outlook. \u201cMost EMs have limited flexibility to provide additional fiscal or monetary support without hurting their credit […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":565051,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9272],"tags":[204,107,7106,115,633,527,1510,113],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-565050","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-macro-picture","tag-banking","tag-covid-19","tag-debt","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterprisepm","tag-pandemic","tag-the-macro-picture","tag-vaccines","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"391961ff-d574-4507-8cd7-2963d50689b8","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/3\/476.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[565037],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nS&P says EMs have a long way to go to recovery - 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Okamoto appears to be\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: MACRO"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: MACRO","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-macro\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":573397,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/08\/04\/em-portfolio-inflows-fall-m-o-m-in-july-but-equity-debt-flows-are-continuing-to-recover-iif\/","url_meta":{"origin":565050,"position":2},"title":"EM portfolio inflows fall m-o-m in July, but equity + debt flows are continuing to recover -IIF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 August 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Net emerging markets portfolio inflows nearly halved in July to USD 15.1 bn from USD 29.2 bn in June, according to the Institute of International Finance\u2019s (IIF) monthly capital flows tracker. The m-o-m decline comes as \u201chard data are still lagging behind\u201d a recovery in investors\u2019 sentiment on the outlook\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/8\/15.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":572976,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/07\/15\/why-we-now-need-to-be-talking-more-about-ems\/","url_meta":{"origin":565050,"position":3},"title":"Why we now need to be talking more about EMs","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"15 July 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Why we now need to be talking more about EMs: Middle-income economies that stand halfway between the world\u2019s richest and poorest \u201care uniquely vulnerable in the pandemic.\u201d Despite this, those countries have largely been absent from the global narrative about the extraordinary steps needed to shield the global economy from\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/7\/115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":554578,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/19\/sp-trims-em-growth-outlook-for-2022\/","url_meta":{"origin":565050,"position":4},"title":"S&P trims EM growth outlook for 2022","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 December 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Emerging markets are walking into the new year with a lower growth outlook from S&P Global Ratings, which revised downwards its growth forecast for emerging markets by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5%. The ratings agency attributes the revision to the pandemic\u2019s overstay and a slowdown in China for the downgrade,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/12\/677.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":564451,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/02\/07\/were-happy-when-ems-score-usd-53-5-bn-in-a-month\/","url_meta":{"origin":565050,"position":5},"title":"We\u2019re happy when EMs score USD 53.5 bn in a month","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 February 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Emerging markets posted their tenth consecutive month of positive net portfolio inflows, a sign that EMs are in favor with global investors, according to the Institute of International Finance\u2019s (IIF) monthly capital flows tracker picked up by Reuters. EM stocks and bonds attracted some USD 53.5 bn of net inflows\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Macro picture"","block_context":{"text":"Macro picture","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/explainers\/macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/2\/415.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/565050","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=565050"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/565050\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/afternoon\/565037"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/565051"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=565050"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=565050"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=565050"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=565050"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=565050"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}