{"id":565024,"date":"2021-03-14T13:40:46","date_gmt":"2021-03-14T13:40:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/14\/hsbc-confident-of-egypts-prospects-but-challenges-remain\/"},"modified":"2021-03-14T13:40:46","modified_gmt":"2021-03-14T13:40:46","slug":"hsbc-confident-of-egypts-prospects-but-challenges-remain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/14\/hsbc-confident-of-egypts-prospects-but-challenges-remain\/","title":{"rendered":"HSBC confident of Egypt\u2019s prospects, but challenges remain"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Egypt is \u201cone of the most compelling economic stories\u201d in the MENA, Africa <\/strong>and <\/strong>Eastern European regions but continues to face \u201csignificant risks\u201d<\/strong> and many structural obstacles, HSBC said in a note last week. Reforms over the past four years have put the economy in a strong position to rebound from the covid shock and weather future economic turbulence, yet the country\u2019s large debt pile, precarious sources of hard currency and weak investment will pose serious challenges for policymakers, Simon Williams, HSBC\u2019s chief economist for Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa (Ceemea), wrote in the note.<\/p>\n

Growth to pick up in 2H2021:<\/strong> HSBC is optimistic that the economic recovery will remain on track, and is forecasting the economy to grow at a 2.5% clip during FY2020-21 and near 5% in FY2021-22. Economic activity will pick up steam during the latter half of the calendar year, underpinned by strong domestic consumption and fuelled in part by remittances, which surged to a record high in 3Q2020. The bank is also confident that the country\u2019s tourism sector will begin to attract more visitors as we near 2022, while an unexpectedly strong economic rebound in Europe \u2014 one of Egypt\u2019s largest trading partners \u2014 will help to support exports and add fuel to the recovery.<\/p>\n

Look beyond consumption and things start to look more uncertain:<\/strong> \u201cOutside of consumption, signs of a broader rebound in activity are difficult to see,\u201d Williams writes, noting the private sector business activity contracted in January<\/a> and February<\/a> this year.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s why:<\/strong><\/p>\n

#1 Productive FDI continues to remain low<\/strong>, with levels among the weakest in the Ceemea region, and existing investments are dominated by the public sector, Williams says. That is in stark contrast to the strong foreign appetite<\/a> for the EGP carry trade, as well as to strong consumer spending. \u201cAlthough consumption is a powerful driver of short-term growth, it is investment that lifts long-term potential,\u201d<\/strong> Williams writes. The combined 400 bps interest rate cut<\/a> by the CBE last year created momentum for capex, but according to Williams, this \u201cmay start to fade\u201d as the central bank tapers off its cheap lending programs<\/a> for sectors vulnerable to the covid fallout.<\/p>\n

#2 Trade supported economic growth during the pandemic because imports fell faster than exports<\/strong> \u2014 not due to more exports.<\/strong> The HSBC economist links this to the wider story of Egypt\u2019s current account weakness, with merchandise exports being traditionally lower than imports and leading to an enduring \u2014 and widening \u2014 trade deficit. This is usually compensated by a strong services balance, this time around the slowdown in tourism and weaker remittance inflows takes away this advantage.<\/p>\n

#3 <\/strong>The commodities boom<\/a><\/strong> could undermine CBE\u2019s room to ease: <\/strong>Should the recovery take longer, pressure is likely to build up for further monetary easing. The CBE has room to drive rates lower, but this would prove challenging if booming global food and energy prices continue to trend higher. Rate cuts could also make EGP debt less attractive for foreigners, which won\u2019t help if it happens before other key sources of FX (tourism and remittances) recover, Williams said.<\/p>\n

Finances are on a firmer footing:<\/strong> Tax reforms and spending cuts put public finances in a much better position to handle the economic shock caused by the pandemic, and gave the government room for fiscal support while limiting the impact on the budget deficit. Revenues have been unexpectedly strong, supported by the Finance Ministry\u2019s efforts to expand the tax base and covid-era measures to bring informal businesses into the fold such as conditioning state support to SMEs on registering into the formal sector, Williams notes.<\/p>\n

And debt sustainability has improved:<\/strong> The Finance Ministry succeeded in lengthening the average maturity of government debt to a little over three years in FY2019-2020 from closer to 1 year in FY2012-2013, alleviating short-term debt servicing costs. Foreign investors are also now playing a bigger role in the country\u2019s financing mix. The proportion of foreign debt ownership is still low by global standards though, and at 20% of total debt, still has room to grow. That said, foreign portfolio investment is now at a record high of USD 29 bn<\/a>, having staged a full recovery from the emerging-market sell-off caused by the pandemic last year.<\/p>\n

But high debt levels and a large fiscal deficit continue to pose problems: <\/strong>While the budget deficit has been narrowing, a \u201cfiscal overhang\u201d<\/strong> remains unresolved and it isn\u2019t just cyclical. It stems from \u201cheavy debt servicing costs that amount to some 10% of GDP, \u2026 [absorbing] the equivalent of 60% of all revenues and nearly 90% of taxes.\u201d With the state coffers being increasingly subject to a growing need for external funding, the economy needs to sustain a real growth rate of 5.5% (and nominal growth of nearly 14%) to drive the debt stock sustainably lower, \u201cleaving little room for error,\u201d Williams notes.<\/p>\n

And t<\/strong>here is \u201cmuch policy work still to be done\u201d<\/strong>: <\/strong>Low levels of national savings, heavy state involvement in the economy, weak capital formation, a \u201cstill-low\u201d business environment ranking, and high levels of poverty. Egypt\u2019s GDP structure also suffers from a \u201cmarked structural imbalance\u201d owed to a low level of goods exports and weak real wages.<\/p>\n

Authorities are increasingly recognizing those structural shortfalls, <\/strong>and have since 2017 introduced \u201ca raft of reforms designed to overhaul the investment climate and prioritise export sectors,\u201d he writes.<\/p>\n

You can read a summary of <\/strong>the report here (pdf)<\/a><\/strong>. <\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Egypt is \u201cone of the most compelling economic stories\u201d in the MENA, Africa and Eastern European regions but continues to face \u201csignificant risks\u201d and many structural obstacles, HSBC said in a note last week. Reforms over the past four years have put the economy in a strong position to rebound from the covid shock and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":565025,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9272],"tags":[107,104,633,103,490,182,345,1510,238],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-565024","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-macro-picture","tag-covid-19","tag-economy","tag-enterprisepm","tag-fdi","tag-hsbc","tag-inflation","tag-mena","tag-the-macro-picture","tag-tourism","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"7677e06d-176e-4ee3-af31-88f320cc8ac6","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/3\/462.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[565013],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nHSBC confident of Egypt\u2019s prospects, but challenges remain - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/14\/hsbc-confident-of-egypts-prospects-but-challenges-remain\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"HSBC confident of Egypt\u2019s prospects, but challenges remain\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Egypt is \u201cone of the most compelling economic stories\u201d in the MENA, Africa and Eastern European regions but continues to face \u201csignificant risks\u201d and many structural obstacles, HSBC said in a note last week. 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