{"id":565003,"date":"2021-03-11T13:37:44","date_gmt":"2021-03-11T13:37:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/11\/heavy-decision-weighing-on-the-cbe-next-week\/"},"modified":"2021-03-11T13:37:44","modified_gmt":"2021-03-11T13:37:44","slug":"heavy-decision-weighing-on-the-cbe-next-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/11\/heavy-decision-weighing-on-the-cbe-next-week\/","title":{"rendered":"Heavy decision weighing on the CBE next week"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Bloomberg thinks Egypt could be among the biggest losers from a commodities <\/strong>supercycle<\/strong>.<\/strong> \u201cAs the world\u2019s biggest buyer of wheat and a net oil importer, Egypt suffers badly whenever commodity prices pick up,\u201d writes Paul Wallace<\/a>. Paying more for key imports puts pressure on the EGP and turbo-charges inflation.<\/p>\n

But does the argument hold water?<\/strong> Bloomberg\u2019s basic premise is that net importers will suffer massive inflationary risk, while net exporters (Russia, KSA) will be sitting pretty. But our starting point isn\u2019t horrible at all: Inflation has been stable \u2014 annual urban inflation rose marginally to 4.5% in February<\/a> from 4.3% in January \u2014 and foreign investors are still purchasing local bonds. Almost all analysts we\u2019ve spoken with this week<\/a>tell us that, yes, inflation is likely to increase if the commodities boom continues. Arqaam Capital sees inflation at 6-7% through 2021, EFG Hermes is forecasting 6%, while Pharos is penciling in a sustained rise in the headline rate averaging 7% until the fourth quarter, when it might begin to back off.<\/p>\n

But we\u2019re also starting from a low point in consumer demand.<\/strong> Metals factories, for instance, are at best operating at 50-60% capacity, officials told us this week, so the impact of rising global metals prices has been muted.<\/p>\n

The risk could push the government to move harder on hedging \u2014 particularly with <\/strong>wheat.<\/strong> The government is currently considering hedging against rising wheat prices. As the world\u2019s biggest importer of wheat, Egypt\u2019s budget is heavily exposed to the ongoing rally that has seen wheat prices increase more than 40% from lows witnessed in March to USD 207 per tonne on 1 March. Traders will be eyeing state grain buyer GASC\u2019s Wednesday\u2019s tender, where it will look to buy 55-60k mn tonnes of wheat for delivery in mid-April, global commodities tracker Agricensus reports (paywall<\/a>)<\/p>\n

How should the CBE react?<\/strong> The central bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee will meet on Thursday, 18 March, to decide on interest rates. Most analysts we spoke with this week feel that the CBE will leave interest rates on hold in anticipation of a rise in inflation. \u201cWhile inflation numbers support a 25-50 bps cut in rates, the rise in US Treasury yields and the risk for EM portfolio exits might prompt the MPC to leave rates unchanged,\u201d Pharos\u2019 head of research Radwa El Swaify said.<\/p>\n

So far, we don\u2019t have to worry about an exodus:<\/strong> Foreign holdings of Egyptian debt recovered to exceed their pre-covid level, rising to USD 29 bn at the end of last month. Real rates on EGP bonds \u2014 or the yield adjusted for inflation \u2014 remain among the highest in the world, Pharos\u2019 Radwa El Swaify told us, adding that \u201cwe\u2019re relatively immune\u201d to higher treasury yields. READ MORE on the impact of rising US bond yields on Egypt <\/strong>here<\/a><\/strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Even managers shedding EM debt are holding on to Egypt,<\/strong> apparently. Loomis\u2019 Emerging Markets Debt Blended Total Return fund, with USD 296.6 mn assets under management, has been selling local-currency notes from Russia and Indonesia. But it has retained its holdings of Egyptian debt among other positions, Bloomberg reports<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But even now, US yields appear to be stabilizing<\/strong> after a US Labor Department report out<\/a>today said<\/a> the consumer price index rose 0.4% in February, in line with expectations, after a 0.3% increase in January. US benchmark yields settled at around 1.5% after shooting to a one-year high above 1.6% last week, Reuters reports<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bloomberg thinks Egypt could be among the biggest losers from a commodities supercycle. \u201cAs the world\u2019s biggest buyer of wheat and a net oil importer, Egypt suffers badly whenever commodity prices pick up,\u201d writes Paul Wallace. Paying more for key imports puts pressure on the EGP and turbo-charges inflation. But does the argument hold water? […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":565004,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10067],"tags":[82,317,104,633,182,349,4167],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-565003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-parting-shot","tag-bonds","tag-commodities","tag-economy","tag-enterprisepm","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-parting-shot","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"226d4e12-720a-4138-b0a3-0ee659d37b36","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/3\/452.png","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[564992],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nHeavy decision weighing on the CBE next week - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/11\/heavy-decision-weighing-on-the-cbe-next-week\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Heavy decision weighing on the CBE next week\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bloomberg thinks Egypt could be among the biggest losers from a commodities supercycle. \u201cAs the world\u2019s biggest buyer of wheat and a net oil importer, Egypt suffers badly whenever commodity prices pick up,\u201d writes Paul Wallace. 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The General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) yesterday purchased 180k tonnes of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Commodities"","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/11\/284.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":545573,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/04\/egypt-in-the-news-is-mo-salah-parting-ways-with-the-national-team\/","url_meta":{"origin":565003,"position":1},"title":"Egypt in the News: Is Mo Salah parting ways with the national team?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 April 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Is Salah bowing out of international football? Speculation is mounting over whether Egypt\u2019s star striker Mohamed Salah has played his final game for the national team following the Pharaoh\u2019s failure to the World Cup. A video of Salah talking to his teammates following last week\u2019s loss to Senegal shows him\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "EGYPT IN THE NEWS"","block_context":{"text":"EGYPT IN THE NEWS","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/egypt-in-the-news\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546301,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/11\/urban-inflation-hits-13-1-in-april-amid-global-commodities-spiral\/","url_meta":{"origin":565003,"position":2},"title":"Urban inflation hits 13.1% in April amid global commodities spiral","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 May 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation rose to a near three-year high in April as rising food costs and the devaluation of the EGP in March caused consumer prices to grow at a faster pace. Annual urban inflation jumped to 13.1% last month from 10.5% in March, according to figures (pdf) released by statistics agency\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/5\/136.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544582,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/10\/inflation-inflation-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":565003,"position":3},"title":"Inflation, inflation, inflation","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"10 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Everything is getting more expensive. Incoming inflation thanks to the Russia-Ukraine conflict dominated the airwaves last night. Our commodities section (above) has all the details.","rel":"","context":"In "LAST NIGHT\u2019S TALK SHOWS"","block_context":{"text":"LAST NIGHT\u2019S TALK SHOWS","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/last-nights-talk-shows\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":547755,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/07\/05\/commodity-prices-are-falling-back-but-is-it-enough-to-tame-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":565003,"position":4},"title":"Commodity prices are falling back \u2014 but is it enough to tame inflation?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"5 July 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Commodity prices are beginning to cool \u2014 and it\u2019s stirring hope that inflation has peaked: Investors who piled into assets like fuel, corn and wheat to hedge against rising inflation have been making their exits, an indicator that a major contributor to wave of global inflation has begun to cool,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "PLANET FINANCE"","block_context":{"text":"PLANET FINANCE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/planet-finance\/\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":564836,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/02\/the-post-covid-commodities-boom-what-it-means-for-egypt\/","url_meta":{"origin":565003,"position":5},"title":"The post-covid commodities boom: What it means for Egypt","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 March 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"What does the global commodities boom mean for Egypt? In past weeks, speculation that we\u2019re at the beginning of a so-called \u201ccommodities supercycle\u201d has been spreading across the pages of the financial press. Commodities prices have been seeing strong gains since the covid-inspired market crash last March, prompting a handful\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: MACRO"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: MACRO","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-macro\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/3\/396.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/565003","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=565003"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/565003\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/afternoon\/564992"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/565004"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=565003"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=565003"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=565003"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=565003"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=565003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}