{"id":564976,"date":"2021-03-10T13:56:51","date_gmt":"2021-03-10T13:56:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/10\/inflation-edges-up-in-february-as-education-tobacco-costs-rise\/"},"modified":"2021-03-10T13:56:51","modified_gmt":"2021-03-10T13:56:51","slug":"inflation-edges-up-in-february-as-education-tobacco-costs-rise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/10\/inflation-edges-up-in-february-as-education-tobacco-costs-rise\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation edges up in February as education, tobacco costs rise"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Annual urban inflation accelerated to 4.5% in February, up from 4.3% the previous month,<\/strong> state statistics bureau Capmas\u2019 latest reading (pdf)<\/a> showed. The increase came after a drop in January<\/a>, when the headline rate fell from 5.4%, and in December<\/a>, when it slowed down from November\u2019s five-month high<\/a> of 5.7%. On a monthly basis, prices ticked up 0.2%, partly reversing a drop of -0.4% in January. The story is getting attention from Reuters<\/a> and Bloomberg<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The increase can be attributed to rising education, tobacco costs: <\/strong>It came as education costs surged 30% y-o-y nationwide Philip Morris International hiked the price of tobacco products in early February<\/a>. Rent also increased on a monthly basis, as well as the price of electricity and cooking gas, Capmas said. The increase in those outpaced a drop in food prices, which fell 0.5% y-o-y after having already dropped in January and December.<\/p>\n

Annual core inflation<\/strong> \u2014 which strips out volatile items such as food and fuel \u2014 remained unchanged at 3.6% in February, according to central bank figures (pdf)<\/a>. On a monthly basis, the core rate dropped to 0.3% from 0.5%.<\/p>\n

Approaching the central bank\u2019s target:<\/strong> The headline rate is approaching the lower band of the CBEs target, although still short of 5%, putting it below the 7% (+\/- 2%) target the CBE wants to achieve by 4Q2022.<\/p>\n

Could a commodities price rally have an impact down the road? <\/strong>There\u2019s \u201csuppressed consumer demand currently,\u201d but the reading will rebound to a monthly average of 0.8% and a 6.4% annual rate due to a potential price shock following the recent commodity price rally, HC Securities Monette Doss said. EFG Hermes, meanwhile, left its forecast for average inflation for the rest of the year unchanged at 6%, head of macroeconomic analysis Mohamed Abou Basha told us. Commodity prices have seen strong gains since the covid-inspired market crash last March, which could put upward pressure on domestic inflation in Egypt. We took a deep dive earlier this month<\/a> into what it could mean for the economy at large.<\/p>\n

The uptick could prompt the CBE to leave rates on hold when it meets a week from tomorrow. <\/strong>Abou Basha is calling a hold and says that \u201csome base effects and rising commodity prices will lift inflation slightly higher in the next few months.\u201d Beltone Financial\u2019s Alia Mamdouh said in a note this morning that with stable food prices stable, especially with commodity prices rising significantly in recent weeks, the CBE is expected to keep rates on hold,<\/p>\n

The CBE could also be reluctant to spook foreign debt investors: <\/strong>\u201cWhile inflation numbers support a 25-50 bps cut in rates, the rise in US Treasury yields and the risk for EM portfolio exits might prompt the MPC to keep rates unchanged,\u201d Pharos\u2019 head of research Radwa El Swaify said.<\/p>\n

(See Go With the Flow, below, for everything you need to know about how rising US <\/strong>treasury yields could affect Egypt.<\/strong>)<\/p>\n

The CBE\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee is due to meet on Thursday, 18 March to set <\/strong>interest rates.<\/strong> The MPC left rates unchanged during their most recent meeting<\/a> on 4 February, even when inflation was falling, as it cited muted economic activity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Annual urban inflation accelerated to 4.5% in February, up from 4.3% the previous month, state statistics bureau Capmas\u2019 latest reading (pdf) showed. The increase came after a drop in January, when the headline rate fell from 5.4%, and in December, when it slowed down from November\u2019s five-month high of 5.7%. On a monthly basis, prices […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10077],"tags":[330,104,633,182,724,4174],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-564976","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-speed-round-macro","tag-capmas","tag-economy","tag-enterprisepm","tag-inflation","tag-monetary-policy","tag-speed-round-macro","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"2ad47058-a1df-4f79-a48e-1b39c17beb79","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[564972],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nInflation edges up in February as education, tobacco costs rise - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/10\/inflation-edges-up-in-february-as-education-tobacco-costs-rise\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Inflation edges up in February as education, tobacco costs rise\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Annual urban inflation accelerated to 4.5% in February, up from 4.3% the previous month, state statistics bureau Capmas\u2019 latest reading (pdf) showed. 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Core inflation dropped to 11.88% from 14.35% a month earlier. The drop in inflation rates paves the way for a potential interest rate cut later this month, Reuters suggests. \u201cThe Central Bank of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":632395,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/02\/11\/inflation-drops-to-17-1-in-january\/","url_meta":{"origin":564976,"position":1},"title":"Inflation drops to 17.1% in January","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 February 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Monetary policy victory lap time? Annual inflation dropped to 17.1% in January from 21.9% in December, CAPMAS announced on Thursday, according to Reuters. Core inflation also fell to 14.35% from 19.86% a month earlier. The CAPMAS report notes that vegetable prices dropped by 3.3% m-o-m nationwide, with food overall dropping\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/2\/942.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":601804,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/11\/inflation-back-on-the-rise-throwing-continued-easing-cycle-to-doubt\/","url_meta":{"origin":564976,"position":2},"title":"Inflation back on the rise, throwing continued easing cycle to doubt","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 March 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation unexpectedly surges in February: Annual headline urban inflation accelerated to 14.4% in February compared to 12.7% in January, the central bank said in a statement (pdf). Month-on-month, inflation rose to 1.7% in February compared to 0.6% in January. Annual core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/3\/1907.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":649869,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/03\/12\/inflation-rates-above-30-m-o-m-rates-start-to-ease\/","url_meta":{"origin":564976,"position":3},"title":"Inflation rates above 30%, m-o-m rates start to ease","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 March 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation is now easing month-on-month despite having broken the 30% barrier on a y-o-y basis,according to data from the CBE, a sign that the one-off shock of the November 2016 float of the pound may now be starting to taper. 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