{"id":564512,"date":"2021-02-10T13:40:58","date_gmt":"2021-02-10T13:40:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/02\/10\/will-the-pandemic-not-local-macro-triggers-be-key-to-the-cbes-next-rate-decision\/"},"modified":"2021-02-10T13:40:58","modified_gmt":"2021-02-10T13:40:58","slug":"will-the-pandemic-not-local-macro-triggers-be-key-to-the-cbes-next-rate-decision","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/02\/10\/will-the-pandemic-not-local-macro-triggers-be-key-to-the-cbes-next-rate-decision\/","title":{"rendered":"Will the pandemic, not local macro triggers, be key to the CBE\u2019s next rate decision?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The EGX30 rose 0.85% at today\u2019s close<\/strong> on turnover of EGP 1.92 bn (26% above the 90-day average). Regional investors were net sellers. The index is up 6.45% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green: <\/strong>Fawry (+4.2%), Pioneers Holding (+3.1%) and Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (+2.4%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Cleopatra Hospital (-1.0%), CI Capital (-0.9%), and Export Development Bank of Egypt (-0.9%)<\/p>\n

<\/a> IN THE HOT SEAT TODAY- <\/strong>We reached out to our analyst of the week \u2014 <\/strong>Arqaam\u2019s<\/a><\/strong>Noaman<\/a><\/strong>Khalid<\/a><\/strong>\u2014 who gave us color on the what impact today\u2019s inflation news had on markets.<\/p>\n

The EGX turned a blind eye to the dip in inflation<\/strong>, closing up less than 1% on heavy turnover.<\/p>\n

Notable exceptions include Fawry<\/strong>, which was up 4.2%, and Pioneers <\/strong>(3.1%), signalling the continued strength of finance and fintech.<\/p>\n

How will today\u2019s inflation figures feature in the next CBE Monetary Policy Meeting? Not <\/strong>much<\/strong>, says Khalid. In the short-run, the wider implications of the pandemic \u2014 especially the vaccine rollout \u2014 will have a greater impact than local macro triggers. And as the weather gets warmer, and the current wave of the virus decreases, consumer spending will go up, supporting inflation.<\/p>\n

Either way, the heaviest rate cuts are behind us<\/strong>, says Khalid. The wiggle room for further cuts is getting shorter, falling to 100 to 150 bps.<\/p>\n

CBE will prioritize unifying corridor rates and yields: <\/strong>Right now, open market control is a more pressing issue as we notice that local macro triggers such as inflation take a back seat in terms of overall impact. The current overnight deposit and lending rates remain at 8.25% and 9.25% respectively, which is appropriate, says Khalid. But yields are at around 10.5%. What the CBE would want to do is narrow that gap.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Khalid sees rising oil prices as being a net positive for the market.<\/strong> First, history has shown that investors aren\u2019t really too scared of any inflationary impact of rising oil prices (which finally broke past the USD 60 \/ bbl barrier this week). This is a sign that things are headed to pre-covid figures, which should increase overall global investor sentiment.<\/p>\n

After all, we\u2019re one region: <\/strong>Any gains for GCC markets from the rise in oil prices ultimately spill over to Egypt.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The EGX30 rose 0.85% at today\u2019s close on turnover of EGP 1.92 bn (26% above the 90-day average). Regional investors were net sellers. The index is up 6.45% YTD. In the green: Fawry (+4.2%), Pioneers Holding (+3.1%) and Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (+2.4%). In the red: Cleopatra Hospital (-1.0%), CI Capital (-0.9%), and Export Development Bank […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7219],"tags":[1258,633,519,642,182,4149,3307],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-564512","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-go-with-the-flow","tag-arqaam-capital","tag-enterprisepm","tag-fawry","tag-go-with-the-flow","tag-inflation","tag-noaman-khalid","tag-pioneers-holding","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"5810bd17-e5f7-4900-8850-a46490afa461","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[564503],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nWill the pandemic, not local macro triggers, be key to the CBE\u2019s next rate decision? - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/02\/10\/will-the-pandemic-not-local-macro-triggers-be-key-to-the-cbes-next-rate-decision\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Will the pandemic, not local macro triggers, be key to the CBE\u2019s next rate decision?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The EGX30 rose 0.85% at today\u2019s close on turnover of EGP 1.92 bn (26% above the 90-day average). 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