{"id":564507,"date":"2021-02-10T13:40:58","date_gmt":"2021-02-10T13:40:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/02\/10\/headline-inflation-slowed-last-month-does-it-make-a-rate-cut-more-likely\/"},"modified":"2021-02-10T13:40:58","modified_gmt":"2021-02-10T13:40:58","slug":"headline-inflation-slowed-last-month-does-it-make-a-rate-cut-more-likely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/02\/10\/headline-inflation-slowed-last-month-does-it-make-a-rate-cut-more-likely\/","title":{"rendered":"Headline inflation slowed last month \u2014 does it make a rate cut more likely?"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Annual headline inflation in January slowed to its lowest level since September 2020. <\/strong>Urban headline inflation dropped for the second consecutive month to 4.3% from 5.4% in December 2020<\/a>, and closing in on a 3.7% record low<\/a> reading last September, figures from state statistics agency Capmas (pdf)<\/a> and the central bank (pdf)<\/a> showed. On a monthly basis, inflation was -0.4%, as a further drop in food and vegetable prices from an increase in stockpiles and a fall in food exports led to the same pace of deflation recorded in December. The story is getting attention from Reuters<\/a> and Bloomberg<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Food and beverage prices fell again this month,<\/strong> dropping 1.6% month-on-month and 0.5% y-o-y from January 2020. The price of vegetables fell over 20% on average from December, after having already seen a 10% m-o-m drop in the final month of the year, despite the winter holidays\u2019 effect on seasonal spending. Most other consumer price index constituents were flat.<\/p>\n

Annual core inflation<\/strong> \u2014 which strips out volatile items \u2014 fell to 3.6% in January compared to 3.8% in December. Monthly core inflation, meanwhile, ticked up to 0.5% from 0% in December.<\/p>\n

Inflation fell below CBE target: <\/strong>The reading came below the lower band of the central bank\u2019s 7% (+\/- 2%) target. The CBE adjusted its target range from 6% (+\/-3%) in December<\/a> after inflation was muted for the better part of 2020 and exceeded its previous target only once<\/a>. Persistently low inflation previously triggered consultations with the IMF\u2019s technical team late last year<\/a> under the terms of a stand-by loan agreement.<\/p>\n

And below analyst expectations: <\/strong>\u201cInflation for January 2020 came in much lower than our expectations\u201d on the back of food and vegetable prices, Pharos\u2019 head of research Radwa Elswaify said. Elswaify had expected a higher reading every month throughout the first three quarters of 2021, and a slowdown only toward 4Q20021. \u201cThe slowdown in inflation brought down the 2021 expected average level to 5.3%,\u201d Pharos said in a client note this morning.<\/p>\n

Momentum looking forward: <\/strong>February should see a m-o-m figure of 0.5% and an annual headline rate of 5.2% and 4.8% in urban parts of Egypt, Elswaify said. Naeem Brokerage echoed Elswaify\u2019s sentiment, saying in a research note that inflation will increase in the near term \u201con the back of the ongoing surge in global commodity prices.\u201d<\/p>\n

Is a rate cut on the horizon? <\/strong>\u201cSince [the] inflation reading came lower than expectations, this raises real rates and improves the chances for a 50 bps rate cut early this year,\u201d Elswaify said. Pharos is yet to confirm its forecast for the upcoming policy meeting. Whether or not we see a cut when the central bank meets next month would \u201cdepend on a few variables including upcoming commodity price shocks, including oil and food, liquidity and carry-trade attractiveness,\u201d Naeem Brokerage\u2019s director of research Allen Sandeep said.<\/p>\n

The monetary policy committee is due to next meet on 18 March. <\/strong>The MPC left rates unchanged during their most recent meeting<\/a> on 4 February, citing muted economic activity. The hold was the second in a row<\/a>. It came after the CBE enacted two consecutive 50 bps rate cuts in each of November<\/a> and September, and a record 300 bps cut<\/a> in March \u2014 bringing total rate cuts in 2020 to 400 bps.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Annual headline inflation in January slowed to its lowest level since September 2020. Urban headline inflation dropped for the second consecutive month to 4.3% from 5.4% in December 2020, and closing in on a 3.7% record low reading last September, figures from state statistics agency Capmas (pdf) and the central bank (pdf) showed. On a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":564508,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10034],"tags":[330,104,633,182,724],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-564507","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round-economy","tag-capmas","tag-economy","tag-enterprisepm","tag-inflation","tag-monetary-policy","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"d2132ef4-bbe3-4fbf-adbe-0033fb050730","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/2\/429.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[564503],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nHeadline inflation slowed last month \u2014 does it make a rate cut more likely? - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/02\/10\/headline-inflation-slowed-last-month-does-it-make-a-rate-cut-more-likely\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Headline inflation slowed last month \u2014 does it make a rate cut more likely?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Annual headline inflation in January slowed to its lowest level since September 2020. 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Annual headline rate accelerated to 4.8% in May from 4.1% in April, while the overall rate in urban and rural areas (pdf) rose to 4.9% last month from 4.4% a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/6\/459.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":556077,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/11\/inflation-hits-20-month-high-in-september\/","url_meta":{"origin":564507,"position":1},"title":"Inflation hits 20-month high in September","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation continued its upward trend in September, hitting a 20-month high on the back of increasing food, healthcare and education costs, according to Capmas figures released yesterday. Headline urban inflation jumped to 6.6% last month, up from 5.7% in August. This is the highest annual inflation rate since\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/113.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":547161,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/06\/12\/inflation-hits-13-5-in-may-but-slowed-on-an-m-o-m-basis\/","url_meta":{"origin":564507,"position":2},"title":"Inflation hits 13.5% in May but slowed on an m-o-m basis","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 June 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation rose to a three-year high in May but came in lower than expected and even slowed down on a monthly basis. Annual urban inflation rose to 13.5% last month from 13.1% in Aprilas rising global commodity prices and the EGP devaluation pushed consumer prices upwards for a sixth consecutive\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/6\/223.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":542673,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/01\/11\/urban-inflation-rises-to-5-9-in-december-below-expectations\/","url_meta":{"origin":564507,"position":3},"title":"Urban inflation rises to 5.9% in December, below expectations","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 January 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual urban inflation rose to 5.9% in December from 5.6% in November, ending a two-month downward trend despite a slowdown in food price inflation, according to figures released yesterday by statistics agency Capmas. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell for the first time in 11 months, dipping 0.1% due\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/1\/118.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":567942,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/13\/food-prices-drive-inflation-rate-to-five-month-high\/","url_meta":{"origin":564507,"position":4},"title":"Food prices drive inflation rate to five-month high","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 December 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Annual headline urban inflation accelerated for the second consecutive month to 5.7% in November from 4.6% in October, according to Capmas figures (pdf) released on Thursday. The increase was driven by higher food prices, which single-handedly brought annual inflation to its highest since May. Monthly headline figures remained muted at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/220.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":592872,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/11\/11\/egypts-annual-headline-inflation-cools-again-in-october\/","url_meta":{"origin":564507,"position":5},"title":"Egypt\u2019s annual headline inflation cools again in October","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 November 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Headline inflation cools again in October, ramping up expectations of a rate cut this week: Egypt\u2019s annual headline inflation rate dropped for the fifth consecutive month to its lowest level in nine years, hitting 2.4% in October from 4.3% in September, according to Capmas data (pdf) released yesterday. Annual urban\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/11\/2438.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/564507","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=564507"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/564507\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/afternoon\/564503"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/564508"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=564507"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=564507"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=564507"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=564507"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=564507"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}