{"id":564343,"date":"2021-08-25T13:39:49","date_gmt":"2021-08-25T13:39:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/08\/25\/credit-suisse-singing-our-praises-but-warns-of-a-fourth-wave\/"},"modified":"2021-08-25T13:39:49","modified_gmt":"2021-08-25T13:39:49","slug":"credit-suisse-singing-our-praises-but-warns-of-a-fourth-wave","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/08\/25\/credit-suisse-singing-our-praises-but-warns-of-a-fourth-wave\/","title":{"rendered":"Credit Suisse singing our praises, but warns of a fourth wave"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Credit Suisse seems optimistic about our post-covid recovery<\/strong>, as the economy shows signs of real growth, t-bills remaining attractive and muted risks from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) conflict, Fahd Iqbal, Credit Suisse\u2019s head of private bank Middle East research, told Bloomberg\u2019s Middle East: Daybreak show this morning (watch, runtime: 09:06<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Good news for the wider Egyptian economy: <\/strong>Credit Suisse was upbeat on the chances for a strong post-covid recovery, Iqbal said. \u201cIt hasn\u2019t just been a base effect. We are actually seeing genuine growth kicking in.\u201d And while that growth has not been observed in the likes of Egypt\u2019s PMI readings, \u201cbut we\u2019re confident that it will improve further in each tune,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n

Bonds over shares: <\/strong>Government bonds are still attractive and the T-bill trade should remain comfortable for the rest of the year, he noted. The risk-reward tradeoff is much more attractive in government bonds than in equities, where valuations remain low. \u201cWhat\u2019s holding equities back is the low liquidity that you have, whereas the T-bill market really simply offers you better liquidity and certainly better payoff,\u201d Iqbal said. Government debt instruments have seen strong inflows from abroad so far this year, with foreign holdings of bills and bonds standing at betweenUSD 28-29 bn<\/a> at the end of May, little changed from a record high of USD 28.5 bn in mid-February.<\/p>\n

Are you just as confused about this as we are? <\/strong>It may not last into next year, as the risk of a government rate hike could impact payoffs in the T-bill trade, Iqbal says. Higher rates attract the carry trade who look for returns on higher bond yields. Egypt\u2019s relatively high real interest rates have largely been responsible for the inflows.<\/p>\n

Iqbal downplayed the impact of<\/strong> GERD in growth, <\/strong>saying that while there is a political risk stemming from the GERD, the conflict would likely be resolved.<\/p>\n

He DID NOT downplay the risks of a fourth wave:<\/strong> A fourth wave of the coronavirus poses the greatest short-term risk to Egypt\u2019s economy, Iqbal said\u2014especially since the high population density in Cairo makes it difficult to enforce social distancing measures. \u201cMorbidity has been pretty much the highest that you\u2019d find anywhere else in the Middle East as a result, so it\u2019s been a concern for us that you could see another wave coming in through.\u201d Health Minister Hala Zayed this week warned that rising case numbers could herald a fourth wave incoming at the end<\/a> of September.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Credit Suisse seems optimistic about our post-covid recovery, as the economy shows signs of real growth, t-bills remaining attractive and muted risks from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) conflict, Fahd Iqbal, Credit Suisse\u2019s head of private bank Middle East research, told Bloomberg\u2019s Middle East: Daybreak show this morning (watch, runtime: 09:06). Good news for […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":564344,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10034],"tags":[271,107,9115,104,633,164,410,91,1041],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-564343","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-speed-round-economy","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-covid-19","tag-credit-suisse","tag-economy","tag-enterprisepm","tag-equities","tag-gerd","tag-oil-and-gas","tag-treasuries","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"c53ee09a-bc8f-460b-8ca9-606c8e9c75ac","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/8\/524.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[564337],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nCredit Suisse singing our praises, but warns of a fourth wave - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/08\/25\/credit-suisse-singing-our-praises-but-warns-of-a-fourth-wave\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Credit Suisse singing our praises, but warns of a fourth wave\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Credit Suisse seems optimistic about our post-covid recovery, as the economy shows signs of real growth, t-bills remaining attractive and muted risks from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) conflict, Fahd Iqbal, Credit Suisse\u2019s head of private bank Middle East research, told Bloomberg\u2019s Middle East: Daybreak show this morning (watch, runtime: 09:06). 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The EGX30 is currently the region\u2019s worst-performer \u2014 down 22% year-to-date \u2014 and trails\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/11\/237.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":559165,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/12\/credit-suisse-fitch-bullish-on-egypt\/","url_meta":{"origin":564343,"position":1},"title":"Credit Suisse, Fitch bullish on Egypt","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 January 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economic growth will move back towards 5% by the end of the 2021 calendar year, helped by the upcoming vaccine rollout and continued public investment, Fitch Solutions said yesterday. In its latest MENA macroeconomic update, the research house forecasts FY2020-2021 GDP growth to come in at 3%, slightly below\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/1\/127.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":565389,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/06\/structural-reform-is-more-than-just-a-buzz-phrase-its-what-egypt-needs\/","url_meta":{"origin":564343,"position":2},"title":"Structural reform is more than just a buzz phrase, it\u2019s what Egypt needs","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 April 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Egyptian economy\u2019s cyclical rebound from the pandemic \u201ckeeps getting postponed,\u201d Credit Suisse head of MENA research Fahd Iqbal said on Bloomberg Daybreak this morning (watch, runtime: 8:47). \u201cThere are only a handful of countries in the Middle East where we really started to see the vaccine rollout go through\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY"","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: ECONOMY","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/4\/349.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":591833,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/12\/18\/returns-on-egyptian-govt-bonds-to-remain-robust-credit-suisse\/","url_meta":{"origin":564343,"position":3},"title":"Returns on Egyptian gov\u2019t bonds to remain \u201crobust\u201d -Credit Suisse","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 December 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Returns on Egyptian gov\u2019t bonds to dip but remain \u201crobust\u201d -Credit Suisse: Egyptian government bonds will pay lower returns to foreign investors in 2020 but will remain \u201crobust,\u201d Fadh Iqbal, head of Middle East research at Credit Suisse, told Bloomberg TV yesterday (watch, runtime: 4:07). \u201cIt\u2019s still a very attract\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/12\/2988.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":626003,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/08\/28\/credit-suisse-is-bullish-on-egypt-economic-recovery-pushed-along-by-tailwinds-next-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":564343,"position":4},"title":"Credit Suisse is bullish on Egypt, economic recovery pushed along by tailwinds next year","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 August 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Credit Suisse is bullish on Egypt, sees tailwinds for economic recovery: Egypt\u2019s economic growth cycle still has \u201cseveral years ahead to go,\u201d but next year is expected to bring tailwinds to our economic recovery, Credit Suisse Group AG head of Middle East research Fahd Iqbal tells Bloomberg TV. The most\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/8\/1327.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":602468,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/03\/28\/credit-suisse-is-bullish-on-egypt-sees-it-as-top-pick-across-the-middle-east\/","url_meta":{"origin":564343,"position":5},"title":"Credit Suisse is bullish on Egypt, sees it as \u201ctop pick across the Middle East\u201d","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 March 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Credit Suisse is bullish on Egypt, sees it as \u201ctop pick across the Middle East\u201d: Egypt is Credit Suisse\u2019s \u201ctop pick\u201d in the Middle East as the firm continues to be bullish on Egypt, Credit Suisse Group\u2019s head of MENA research Fadh Iqbal told Bloomberg TV (watch, runtime: 3:26). Although\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/3\/1686.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/564343","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=564343"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/564343\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/afternoon\/564337"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/564344"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=564343"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=564343"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=564343"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=564343"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=564343"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}