{"id":562975,"date":"2021-06-14T04:00:27","date_gmt":"2021-06-14T04:00:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/14\/banks-may-face-more-pressure-in-the-coming-fiscal-year\/"},"modified":"2021-06-14T04:00:27","modified_gmt":"2021-06-14T04:00:27","slug":"banks-may-face-more-pressure-in-the-coming-fiscal-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/14\/banks-may-face-more-pressure-in-the-coming-fiscal-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Banks may face more pressure in the coming fiscal year"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Egyptian bank<\/strong>s could see their interest income squeezed during the coming <\/strong>state <\/strong>fiscal year<\/strong> due to lower interest rates and a potential dip in treasury yields, Fitch Ratings<\/a> said in a report yesterday.<\/p>\n

The sector\u2019s average net interest-margin (NIM) held up remarkably well through 2020<\/strong>, coming in at 4.1% despite the central bank cutting rates by 400 bps last year in response to the pandemic, the ratings agency said. This was largely thanks to yields on sovereign bonds \u2014 from which banks derive around 65% of their income \u2014 remaining high throughout the year.<\/p>\n

This won\u2019t necessarily remain the status quo in the 12 months ending June 2022, though<\/strong>, under a few scenarios mapped out by the ratings agency yesterday.<\/p>\n

Scenario #1: The central bank cuts rates by 50-150 bps in FY2021-2022 + yields remain unchanged.<\/strong> Banks are unlikely to feel much of an impact under this scenario, given their main source of interest income would remain unaffected. This doesn\u2019t mean that every bank would feel the same impact though. Fitch says that the individual bank\u2019s funding structure, and asset and liability pricing powers will determine how exposed it is to a lower interest rate environment.<\/p>\n

Scenario #2: The central bank cuts rates by 50-150 bps in FY2021-2022 + yields fall with them.<\/strong> Under this scenario, the effects on NIMs will be \u201cmore significant,\u201d the ratings agency says, estimating that a rate reduction of up to 150 bps will squeeze margins by as much as 70 bps.<\/p>\n

The odds of aggressive rate cuts aren't exactly high: <\/strong>Most of the analysts we surveyed last week<\/a> ahead of this Thursday\u2019s MPC meeting expect the central bank to leave rates unchanged for most of the year, with a cut coming in the final quarter at the very earliest. The central bank has maintained rates for four consecutive meetings, largely to avoid putting pressure on real rates and dimming the attractiveness of the EGP carry trade \u2014 the most attractive of its kind in the world.<\/p>\n

The direction of yields isn\u2019t the only thing that could impact interest income: Lending to folks other than government matters, too.<\/strong> Corporate and consumer borrowing are set to grow over the next 18 months, according to Fitch, which predicts high single-digit loan growth through 2021 and low double-digit growth next year, helped by the CBE\u2019s subsidized loan scheme and an increase in capex spending.<\/p>\n

Scenario #3: Interest rates + yields remain the same, but bond holdings fall 5-15% due to increased lending.<\/strong> Should banks sell down some of their positions in high-yielding treasuries in favor of increasing lower-yielding personal and business loans, Fitch estimates that the average NIM could fall by up 90 bps.<\/p>\n

Scenario #4: Interest rates + yields drop and bond holdings fall 5-15%.<\/strong> Combine a smaller treasury portfolio and lower yields, and the NIMs in the sector fall by up to 170 bps, the ratings agency says.<\/p>\n

Banks remained financially sound throughout the pandemic<\/strong>, despite operating income from loans and core operations mostly decreasing<\/a>. This is because a large part of bank income comes from government debt. Egyptian banks are also very conservative, with relatively low loan-to-deposit ratios by international standards.<\/p>\n

Background: <\/strong>Fitch flagged in April<\/a> that the profitability of banks may drop this year because of lower interest rates and a rise in default rates that may result from the central bank lifting its emergency support measures.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Egyptian banks could see their interest income squeezed during the coming state fiscal year due to lower interest rates and a potential dip in treasury yields, Fitch Ratings said in a report yesterday. The sector\u2019s average net interest-margin (NIM) held up remarkably well through 2020, coming in at 4.1% despite the central bank cutting rates […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":562976,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7350],"tags":[204,72,7087,905,349],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-562975","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-banking","tag-banking","tag-enterpriseam","tag-finance","tag-fitch-ratings","tag-interest-rates","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"28da83d3-adfc-4095-a04d-7f1a243c74c7","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/6\/179.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[562971],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nBanks may face more pressure in the coming fiscal year - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/14\/banks-may-face-more-pressure-in-the-coming-fiscal-year\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Banks may face more pressure in the coming fiscal year\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Egyptian banks could see their interest income squeezed during the coming state fiscal year due to lower interest rates and a potential dip in treasury yields, Fitch Ratings said in a report yesterday. 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Fitch had in July revised its outlook for the banking sector from negative to stable, \u201creflecting the stable outlook on the operating environment,\u201d according to the report.What\u2019s\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banking"","block_context":{"text":"Banking","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/banking\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/8\/83.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":561469,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/08\/under-pressure\/","url_meta":{"origin":562975,"position":1},"title":"Under pressure","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 April 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s banks could face further pressure on net income in 2021 due to the lower interest rate environment and a potential rise in bad loans when the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) lifts support measures it introduced at the onset of the pandemic, Fitch Ratings said in a report yesterday.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banking"","block_context":{"text":"Banking","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/banking\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":578916,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/01\/18\/resilient-banks-reduced-price-bread\/","url_meta":{"origin":562975,"position":2},"title":"Resilient banks + reduced-price bread","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 January 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"It was banking and bread on the airwaves last night: The attention of the talking heads was captured by a new report from Fitch Ratings with positive things to say about the resilience of our banking sector in the face of the EGP devaluation, as well as more details on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "LAST NIGHT\u2019S TALK SHOWS"","block_context":{"text":"LAST NIGHT\u2019S TALK SHOWS","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/last-nights-talk-shows\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/1\/303.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":568216,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/12\/22\/why-banks-in-egypt-remain-profitable-chapter-xxii\/","url_meta":{"origin":562975,"position":3},"title":"Why banks in Egypt remain profitable: Chapter XXII","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 December 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Profits in the banking sector have grown this year despite an acceleration of the central bank\u2019s easing cycle, a survey conducted by the local press showed. 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