{"id":562745,"date":"2021-06-06T04:00:23","date_gmt":"2021-06-06T04:00:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/06\/goldman-says-cbe-could-cut-rates-this-month-reserves-were-up-in-may\/"},"modified":"2021-06-06T04:00:23","modified_gmt":"2021-06-06T04:00:23","slug":"goldman-says-cbe-could-cut-rates-this-month-reserves-were-up-in-may","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/06\/goldman-says-cbe-could-cut-rates-this-month-reserves-were-up-in-may\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldman says CBE could cut rates this month + reserves were up in May"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-01\"><\/a> <strong>The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) can afford to cut rates by as much as 50 b<\/strong><strong>ps at its meeting <\/strong><strong>later this month<\/strong>, Goldman Sachs MENA economist Farouk Soussa told Bloomberg (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/videos\/2021-06-04\/egyptian-inflation-slows-gives-scope-for-rate-cut-video?sref=mmeFTDW1\">watch, runtime 7:12<\/a>). \u201cWe see a very strong case for rate cuts in the near term, as in June. That is predicated on the fact that Egypt has the highest real rates within EM,\u201d Soussa said. The main operation and discount rates currently stand at 8.75%, while overnight deposit and lending rates are at 8.25% and 9.25% respectively. The CBE left rates on hold for a fourth consecutive meeting <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/6c5d1ef9-6305-4119-a57e-4a6f45c6f2d5\">in April<\/a> to maintain attractive real rates and in anticipation of rising inflation.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Low inflation gives policymakers cover to lower rates:<\/strong> Inflation slowed against expectations <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/0d82773c-16b8-4e19-956b-28cf55f425a6\">in April<\/a>, thanks to a favorable base effect that offset a rise in monthly prices. Annual urban inflation fell to 4.1% in April from <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/91d91bf8-2519-46d6-a33e-b0495cc892c0\">4.5% in March<\/a>, while <a href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/5\/202151094538_CAPMAS-04-2021.pdf\">the national rate (pdf)<\/a> fell 40 bps to 4.4%. The CBE could look to cut rates to stimulate spending, though an anticipated spike in inflation later in the year as a rise in global commodity prices trickles down to local products makes a hold more likely, analysts previously told us.<\/p>\n<p><strong>And a rate cut won\u2019t harm Egypt\u2019s all important carry trade<\/strong>, Soussa said, suggesting that the CBE could potentially afford to be a bit more aggressive approach. \u201cReal yields in Egypt are currently around 8-9% on a forward-looking basis. \u2026 There is plenty of scope there for those rates to come down without affecting the relative attractiveness of rates in Egypt,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Foreign investors in Egyptian debt have provided an important source of inflows <\/strong>as <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/146743c8-8fc0-46d6-ab09-1788aff56eff\">tourism receipts<\/a> and FDI contracted in lock step with the rest of the world after the start of the pandemic. Foreign holdings of Egyptian bills and bonds fully recovered from to hit <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2021-03-02\/foreign-holdings-in-egypt-s-debt-hit-record-shrugging-off-virus?sref=mmeFTDW1\">a record USD 28.5 bn<\/a> in February, while inflows into short-term treasuries reached <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/af7c2e78-e82f-466d-8ead-6685971c5842\">almost USD 21 bn<\/a> at the end of April.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Egypt should escape any tapering by the Fed relatively unscathed<\/strong>, Soussa suggested, telling Bloomberg that, despite the risks posed by monetary tightening in the US,<strong> Goldman \u201cremains bullish\u201d on local and hard-currency Egyptian bonds<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What is the carry trade and why is it so important?<\/strong> We\u2019ve got this handy <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/1eb6d15c-55a3-4fd5-a26e-b11c728512b4\">explainer<\/a> to answer that for you.<\/p>\n<p><strong>SPEAKING OF FOREIGN INFLOWS- Egypt's foreign currency reserves increased by <\/strong><strong>almost <\/strong><strong>USD 125 mn in May to USD 40.468 bn<\/strong>, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbe.org.eg\/en\/Pages\/HighlightsPages\/NIR-May-2021.aspx\">recent figures<\/a> by the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE). FX reserves are now at their highest level since April 2020, having plummeted almost USD 10 bn during the peak of the covid-19-induced global pullback from emerging markets last year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) can afford to cut rates by as much as 50 bps at its meeting later this month, Goldman Sachs MENA economist Farouk Soussa told Bloomberg (watch, runtime 7:12). \u201cWe see a very strong case for rate cuts in the near term, as in June. That is predicated on the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":562746,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[2082,104,72,655,260,182,349],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-562745","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-carry-trade","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-reserves","tag-goldman-sachs","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"69eea9f9-d02a-4120-b16a-653b9d0ebd7b","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/6\/64.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[562741],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Goldman says CBE could cut rates this month + reserves were up in May - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/06\/goldman-says-cbe-could-cut-rates-this-month-reserves-were-up-in-may\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Goldman says CBE could cut rates this month + reserves were up in May\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) can afford to cut rates by as much as 50 bps at its meeting later this month, Goldman Sachs MENA economist Farouk Soussa told Bloomberg (watch, runtime 7:12). \u201cWe see a very strong case for rate cuts in the near term, as in June. 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That is predicated on the [&hellip;]","og_url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/06\/goldman-says-cbe-could-cut-rates-this-month-reserves-were-up-in-may\/","og_site_name":"EnterpriseAM Egypt","article_published_time":"2021-06-06T04:00:23+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/6\/64.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"enterpriseam admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"enterpriseam admin","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/06\/goldman-says-cbe-could-cut-rates-this-month-reserves-were-up-in-may\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/06\/goldman-says-cbe-could-cut-rates-this-month-reserves-were-up-in-may\/"},"author":{"name":"enterpriseam admin","@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d"},"headline":"Goldman says CBE could cut rates this month + reserves were up in May","datePublished":"2021-06-06T04:00:23+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/06\/goldman-says-cbe-could-cut-rates-this-month-reserves-were-up-in-may\/"},"wordCount":452,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/06\/goldman-says-cbe-could-cut-rates-this-month-reserves-were-up-in-may\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/6\/64.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1","keywords":["carry trade","economy","EnterpriseAM","foreign reserves","Goldman Sachs","inflation","interest rates"],"articleSection":["Economy"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/06\/goldman-says-cbe-could-cut-rates-this-month-reserves-were-up-in-may\/","url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/06\/goldman-says-cbe-could-cut-rates-this-month-reserves-were-up-in-may\/","name":"Goldman says CBE could cut rates this month + reserves were up in May - 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The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the deposit rate at 16.25%, the lending rate at 17.25%, and the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/2\/66.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546118,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/28\/inflation-could-hit-17-this-year-on-the-back-of-the-devaluation-food-prices-goldman\/","url_meta":{"origin":562745,"position":2},"title":"Inflation could hit 17% this year on the back of the devaluation, food prices \u2013Goldman","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 April 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation could rise to 17% this year, \u201cbut most of it is transient,\u201d says Goldman Sachs: Inflation could climb as high as 17% this year thanks largely to the depreciation of the EGP and rising food prices, Farouk Soussa, Goldman Sachs\u2019 MENA economist, told Bloomberg TV yesterday (watch, runtime: 6:36).\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/4\/389.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":668754,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2025\/07\/21\/split-views-goldman-vs-deutsche-bank-on-monetary-easing-path\/","url_meta":{"origin":562745,"position":3},"title":"Split views: Goldman vs. Deutsche Bank on monetary easing path","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 July 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Higher for longer rates could recharge the EGP carry trade inflows","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/5\/357.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":578351,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/12\/26\/ending-the-year-on-a-big-note\/","url_meta":{"origin":562745,"position":4},"title":"Ending the year on a big note","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 December 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"CBE drives home jumbo 300 bps rate hike: The Central Bank of Egypt raised interest rates by 300 bps on Thursday \u2014 its biggest rate hike since 2016, before floating the EGP \u2014 as it looks to clamp down on rising inflationary pressures. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) hiked the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/12\/513.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":574667,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/09\/17\/interest-rate-cuts-wont-dent-investors-enthusiasm-for-egypt-goldman\/","url_meta":{"origin":562745,"position":5},"title":"Interest rate cuts won\u2019t dent investors\u2019 enthusiasm for Egypt -Goldman","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 September 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"EGP to stay strong, interest rate cuts won\u2019t dent carry trade enthusiasm for Egypt -Goldman: Bulge Bracket stalwart Goldman Sachs sounds optimistic about Egypt, writing in a recent report picked up by the local press that improved hard currency inflows will see a stable EGP \u2014 and predicting that an\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/9\/197.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/562745","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=562745"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/562745\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/562741"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/562746"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=562745"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=562745"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=562745"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=562745"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=562745"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}