{"id":562455,"date":"2021-05-25T03:53:10","date_gmt":"2021-05-25T03:53:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/05\/25\/egypt-among-the-most-vulnerable-ems-to-higher-refinancing-costs-sp\/"},"modified":"2021-05-25T03:53:10","modified_gmt":"2021-05-25T03:53:10","slug":"egypt-among-the-most-vulnerable-ems-to-higher-refinancing-costs-sp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/05\/25\/egypt-among-the-most-vulnerable-ems-to-higher-refinancing-costs-sp\/","title":{"rendered":"Egypt among the most vulnerable EMs to higher refinancing costs \u2013S&P"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Egypt, South Africa, Ghana and Kenya are the four emerging markets that could<\/strong> suffer the most from higher sovereign debt refinancing rates<\/strong>, S&P Global Research<\/a> said yesterday. The ratings agency ran stress scenarios to gauge the effect that rapidly rising borrowing costs for sovereigns would have on budget deficits, looking at scenarios where refinancing rates rose by 100 bps, 200 bps, and 300 bps.<\/p>\n

In a \u201crate shock\u201d scenario where refinancing rates rose 300 bps, Egypt\u2019s interest expenditure as a ratio of GDP would rise 1.2 percentage points (ppt) in the first year.<\/strong> This is slightly lower than the 1.3 ppt increase S&P sees South Africa facing in this scenario, and higher than the 0.9 ppt increase Ghana and Kenya would face. According to the ratings agency, Egypt, India, and Nigeria\u2019s debt service payments already exceed 30% of state revenues in calendar year 2021 \u2014 without any changes in current refinancing costs. In the draft state budget for the upcoming fiscal year, Egypt\u2019s Finance Ministry said it expects<\/a> debt service costs to account for nearly a third of overall government spending.<\/p>\n

Part of the problem is the fact that Egypt has a \u201crelatively sizable\u201d portion of its sovereign debt in FX<\/strong>, which complicates its ability to control financing costs, S&P says. Colombia, Ghana, Kenya, Turkey, and Ukraine are also in the same boat as Egypt. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Brazil, China, India, South Korea, the Philippines, and South Africa have greater control over their financing costs because they \u201cfinance themselves almost exclusively in local currency.\u201d<\/p>\n

The shock isn\u2019t a certainty, however, and depends largely on why rates end up rising:<\/strong> \u201cIf rates rise quickly to reflect rapid employment gains and buoyant GDP growth, against the backdrop of steady increases in productivity, the higher cost of debt servicing will almost certainly be offset by improving state revenue and more rapid consolidation of the primary (non-interest) government accounts,\u201d S&P says. The risk scenario is if rates jump because of a \u201cdelayed\u201d response from central banks tightening their monetary policy to face inflation as a result of stagnant post-covid productivity. In this scenario, interest rate shocks might be even more severe, resulting in a scenario where \u201cgrowth would falter, exchange rates weaken, and credit fundamentals suffer.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Egypt, South Africa, Ghana and Kenya are the four emerging markets that could suffer the most from higher sovereign debt refinancing rates, S&P Global Research said yesterday. The ratings agency ran stress scenarios to gauge the effect that rapidly rising borrowing costs for sovereigns would have on budget deficits, looking at scenarios where refinancing rates […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":562456,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[864,104,115,72],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-562455","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-budget-deficit","tag-economy","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"b2e9bd30-9863-4858-9470-30790f7edbb7","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/5\/215.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[562449],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nEgypt among the most vulnerable EMs to higher refinancing costs \u2013S&P - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/05\/25\/egypt-among-the-most-vulnerable-ems-to-higher-refinancing-costs-sp\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Egypt among the most vulnerable EMs to higher refinancing costs \u2013S&P\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Egypt, South Africa, Ghana and Kenya are the four emerging markets that could suffer the most from higher sovereign debt refinancing rates, S&P Global Research said yesterday. 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Net foreign assets at banks increased to USD 2.9 bn in October, continuing to rebound after having turned positive in September. Excluding the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/288.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":562975,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/14\/banks-may-face-more-pressure-in-the-coming-fiscal-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":562455,"position":1},"title":"Banks may face more pressure in the coming fiscal year","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 June 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egyptian banks could see their interest income squeezed during the coming state fiscal year due to lower interest rates and a potential dip in treasury yields, Fitch Ratings said in a report yesterday.The sector\u2019s average net interest-margin (NIM) held up remarkably well through 2020, coming in at 4.1% despite the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banking"","block_context":{"text":"Banking","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/banking\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/6\/179.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":544714,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/03\/17\/imf-program-rate-hikes-in-the-cards-as-ukraine-war-pressures-budget-fitch\/","url_meta":{"origin":562455,"position":2},"title":"IMF program + rate hikes in the cards as Ukraine war pressures budget -Fitch","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"17 March 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Fitch sees new IMF program, rate hike as Ukraine conflict raises pressure on gov\u2019t finances: Lower tourism inflows, higher food prices and tighter financial conditions driven by the war in Ukraine will put pressure on Egypt\u2019s fiscal position, increasing the likelihood of Egypt taking on new funding from the International\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/3\/221.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":566246,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/06\/rising-us-inflation-a-worry-for-emerging-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":562455,"position":3},"title":"Rising US inflation a worry for emerging markets","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 June 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Heightened inflation in the US is likely to spell trouble for emerging economies as rising yields squeezes countries with hefty debt loads and precarious public finances, analysts tell the Financial Times. \u201cEmerging economies should be worrying more about US inflation than about their own,\u201d Tatiana Lysenko, lead economist for emerging\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "THE MACRO PICTURE"","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":632861,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/02\/21\/stocks-to-see-gains-from-interest-rate-cuts\/","url_meta":{"origin":562455,"position":4},"title":"Stocks to see gains from interest rate cuts","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"21 February 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Egyptian stocks are set to outperform emerging-market peers as interest rates drop, Tamim Elyan and Filipe Pacheco write for Bloomberg. \u201cInvestors are likely to scour the stock market to replace returns from high-yielding deposits,\u201d following the central bank\u2019s move to cut rates by 100 bps. \u201cLast week\u2019s decision may be\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/2\/1254.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546567,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/22\/cbe-goes-for-200-bps-rate-hike-to-tamp-down-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":562455,"position":5},"title":"CBE goes for 200-bps rate hike to tamp-down inflation","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 May 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) raised interest rates for the second time since March as it looks to rein-in inflation and attract foreign investors back to the local bond market. The central bank hiked rates by 200 basis points, bringing its deposit rate to 11.25% and the lending rate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/5\/271.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/562455","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=562455"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/562455\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/562449"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/562456"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=562455"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=562455"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=562455"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=562455"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=562455"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}