{"id":562309,"date":"2021-05-19T04:03:19","date_gmt":"2021-05-19T04:03:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/05\/19\/egypts-gdp-is-on-track-to-grow-4-2-in-2021-rencap\/"},"modified":"2021-05-19T04:03:19","modified_gmt":"2021-05-19T04:03:19","slug":"egypts-gdp-is-on-track-to-grow-4-2-in-2021-rencap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/05\/19\/egypts-gdp-is-on-track-to-grow-4-2-in-2021-rencap\/","title":{"rendered":"Egypt\u2019s GDP is on track to grow 4.2% in 2021 \u2013RenCap"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Renaissance Capital revised upwards its projections for Egypt\u2019s GDP growth to 4.2% in 2021, driven by growth in <\/strong>transport, tourism, and education<\/strong>, Renaissance Capital economists said yesterday during a webinar<\/a> as part of RenCap\u2019s annual MENA Investor Conference. This is an upward revision from the 2.8% RenCap had forecast<\/a> for Egypt\u2019s GDP growth in 2021 at the end of last year. The investment bank is maintaining its expectations that Egypt will manage to eke out growth this year, as GDP grew 2% y-o-y in 4Q2020<\/a>.<\/p>\n

GDP growth is picking up slowly but surely q-o-q:<\/strong> While 4Q2020\u2019s growth rate \u201cmay be a slowdown\u201d from the 5.7% y-o-y rate recorded one year earlier in 4Q2019, q-o-q growth was better, acting head of research in Africa Yvonne Mhango said. On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 1.3% in 4Q2020, \u201cwhich implies a recovery is underway.\u201d Egypt\u2019s economy expanded at a 1.5% clip in 2020, down from 5.6% in 2019.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Inflation is expected to remain contained in the short term:<\/strong> RenCap sees annual urban headline inflation ending the year at 4.3% \u2014 a little over the 4.1% recorded in April<\/a> when inflation slowed against expectations. \u201cThis implies inflation will remain contained, and well within the authorities\u2019 target of 7% (+\/- 2%) for 4Q2021,\u201d Mhango said.<\/p>\n

But the global rally in food and metal prices <\/strong>could soon directly hit consumers here at home<\/strong>, with analysts forecasting heightened inflation as a result of the year-long rally. Higher raw material prices could then increase the cost of local production and boost prices at the cash register as we head further into 2021, Pharos\u2019 head of research Radwa El Swaify and Beltone\u2019s Alia Mamdouh previously said<\/a>. Domestic inflation, which has so far been shrugging off rising global commodity prices due to a favorable base effect, is seen as a potential \u201cupside risk\u201d from the recent boom in oil prices, which may reflect negatively on prices of non-food commodities.<\/p>\n

What about changes to interest rates? Not this year \u2014 and not in 2021 if inflation remains contained within the \u201csingle-digit\u201d limits <\/strong>in \u201cthe short term,\u201d Mhango said. \u201cEgypt\u2019s low inflation implies it has relatively high real rates on its bonds relative to its [emerging market] peers, which should help sustain foreign investors interest in the local bond market,\u201d she added. The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left rates on hold<\/a> earlier this month for a fourth consecutive meeting as policymakers looked to maintain the attractiveness of Egypt\u2019s carry trade, capitalizing on rising commodity prices and rising US interest rates.<\/p>\n

And the EGP could come under a bit of pressure<\/strong>, RenCap said, suggesting it is as much as 13% overvalued against the USD. In the short-term, the EGP will remain \u201cbroadly stable\u201d on the back of relatively high real rates, which have helped attract higher capital inflows to Egypt than its emerging-market peers.<\/p>\n

MORE FROM THE <\/strong>CRYSTAL BALL SET<\/strong>-<\/strong> Egypt will likely reel in USD 7 bn in tourism revenues in FY2021-2022, but this figure will be contingent on the global vaccination rate, EFG Hermes\u2019 Mohamed Abu Basha said, according to Al Mal<\/a>. Abu Basha\u2019s projection is on par with Bank of America\u2019s forecasts<\/a> for Egypt\u2019s tourism revenues in calendar year 2022, but falls short of the USD 8 bn that Tourism Minister Khaled Enany said earlier this week<\/a> the country is hoping to bring in during the current calendar year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Renaissance Capital revised upwards its projections for Egypt\u2019s GDP growth to 4.2% in 2021, driven by growth in transport, tourism, and education, Renaissance Capital economists said yesterday during a webinar as part of RenCap\u2019s annual MENA Investor Conference. This is an upward revision from the 2.8% RenCap had forecast for Egypt\u2019s GDP growth in 2021 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":562310,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[317,104,72,2234,348,182,1982],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-562309","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-commodities","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-exchange","tag-gdp","tag-inflation","tag-renaissance-capital","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"6bb18bfa-39fe-4f57-ae02-2d7688b688be","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/5\/149.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[562303],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nEgypt\u2019s GDP is on track to grow 4.2% in 2021 \u2013RenCap - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/05\/19\/egypts-gdp-is-on-track-to-grow-4-2-in-2021-rencap\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Egypt\u2019s GDP is on track to grow 4.2% in 2021 \u2013RenCap\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Renaissance Capital revised upwards its projections for Egypt\u2019s GDP growth to 4.2% in 2021, driven by growth in transport, tourism, and education, Renaissance Capital economists said yesterday during a webinar as part of RenCap\u2019s annual MENA Investor Conference. 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The economy grew 3.3% in FY 2020-2021,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/10\/238.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570276,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/03\/25\/govt-covid-19-measures-could-threaten-30-of-egypts-nominal-gdp-rencap\/","url_meta":{"origin":562309,"position":1},"title":"Gov\u2019t covid-19 measures could threaten 30% of Egypt\u2019s nominal GDP -RenCap","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 March 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Gov\u2019t covid-19 measures could threaten 30% of Egypt\u2019s nominal GDP -RenCap: Around one third of private consumption in Egypt \u201ccould be hit hard\u201d by the government\u2019s measures to curb the spread of the covid-19 virus in the country, including the partial curfew, suspension of air travel, and closure of restaurants\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/3\/285.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":556997,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/09\/02\/we-smashed-growth-expectations-in-4q2020-2021\/","url_meta":{"origin":562309,"position":2},"title":"We smashed growth expectations in 4Q2020-2021","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 September 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economy grew at a 7.7% clip in 4Q2020-2021, accelerating from a contraction of 1.7% during the final quarter of the previous fiscal year \u2014 and up from the2.9% growth recorded in 3Q2020-2021 quarter, Planning Minister Hala El Said said during a Cabinet meeting yesterday. Reuters also has the story.The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/9\/23.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":576399,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/11\/23\/rencap-bullish-on-egypt-sees-em-inflows-gaining-momentum\/","url_meta":{"origin":562309,"position":3},"title":"RenCap bullish on Egypt, sees EM inflows gaining momentum","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"23 November 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"RenCap bullish on Egypt, sees EM portfolio inflows gaining momentum: The benefits Egypt is reaping from its fiscal reform program \u2014 including turning a primary budget surplus and engaging the IMF \u2014 are keeping Renaissance Capital bullish on the economy, the investment bank said in a report last week. RenCap\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/11\/238.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":563903,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/07\/28\/economy-to-grow-4-5-5-in-2q2021-rencap\/","url_meta":{"origin":562309,"position":4},"title":"Economy to grow 4.5-5% in 2Q2021 -RenCap","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 July 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Egyptian economy will grow by 4.5-5% in 2Q2021 and will continue to gather momentum through the rest of the year, Renaissance Capital economists said during a press briefing yesterday. The investment bank is also maintaining its forecast for 4.2% growth in 2021, which it believes will accelerate to 5%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/7\/276.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":556079,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/10\/11\/world-bank-upgrades-egypts-post-covid-gdp-growth-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":562309,"position":5},"title":"World Bank upgrades Egypt\u2019s post-covid GDP growth outlook","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 October 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s economy is expected to grow 5.0% in FY2021-2022, up from the 3.3% in FY2020-2021, according to the World Bank\u2019s October 2021 MENA economic update(pdf). The World Bank\u2019s forecast marks an upward revision from its April economic update, when it said Egypt\u2019s GDP would grow at a 4.5% clip during\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/562309","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=562309"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/562309\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/562303"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/562310"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=562309"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=562309"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=562309"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=562309"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=562309"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}