{"id":562126,"date":"2021-05-09T03:57:51","date_gmt":"2021-05-09T03:57:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/05\/09\/sp-gives-egypt-a-thumbs-up\/"},"modified":"2021-05-09T03:57:51","modified_gmt":"2021-05-09T03:57:51","slug":"sp-gives-egypt-a-thumbs-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/05\/09\/sp-gives-egypt-a-thumbs-up\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P gives Egypt a thumbs-up"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Egypt\u2019s sovereign credit rating at B with a stable<\/strong> outlook<\/strong> despite the disruptive impact of covid-19 on the country\u2019s tourism and exports as well as \u201celevated\u201d external debt, the ratings agency said<\/a> on Friday, maintaining its rating since April 2020<\/a>. Although external debt is rising on the back of lower foreign inflows, S&P expects Egypt to meet upcoming payments thanks to its foreign reserves stockpile and access to international debt markets. Debt pressure will begin to dissipate next year when the economic recovery begins to pick up steam, it said.<\/p>\n

Debt metrics will get worse before they get better:<\/strong> S&P expects external and government debt metrics to deteriorate during the current fiscal year, mainly as a result of pressures on the country\u2019s key sources of hard currency, \u201cfollowed by gradual improvement.\u201d The pain will continue for tourism and Suez Canal receipts \u2014 two of the country\u2019s biggest sources of hard currency, S&P said, forecasting tourism revenues to recover to pre-pandemic levels in 2023.<\/p>\n

FDI inflows continue to be weak<\/strong>, coming in at 1.4% of GDP this fiscal year<\/strong>, slipping from 2.0% the previous fiscal year. The ratings agency sees the FDI-to-GDP ratio recovering again to 2.0% in FY2021-2022, before slipping 0.1 percentage points over each of the following two fiscal years. The report does not elaborate on this forecast.<\/p>\n

But remittances will continue being a bright spot:<\/strong> Remittance flows, which have held up surprisingly well through the pandemic, will remain high in the coming months, the ratings agency said. Remittances grew more than 10% in 2020<\/a> despite the twin shocks of the pandemic and the collapse of oil prices, two crises that threatened to heavily impact inflows from Egyptian expats \u2014 most of which are based in the oil-dependent Gulf states.<\/p>\n

Portfolio investment has \u201crecovered strongly,\u201d<\/strong> rising to USD 28 bn in the middle of March, a year after experiencing a large sell-off during the initial wave of covid-19 that saw foreign holdings fall to USD 9.4 bn.<\/p>\n

Foreign reserves are \u201crelatively strong\u201d<\/strong> and will help the central bank manage debt-related risks in the coming months, the agency said. Net foreign reserves stood at USD 40.3 bn<\/a> at the end of April, which the agency sees as an \u201cadequate\u201d amount and enough to cover more than five months of current account payments.<\/p>\n

Economic growth rate to pick up to 5.3% over coming two years:<\/strong> Egypt\u2019s economic growth rate will slow slightly to 2.5% this fiscal year from 3.6% in FY2019-2020 due to the pandemic\u2019s effect on major sectors such as tourism, manufacturing, oil and gas and construction. But growth is expected to rebound to 5.3% during the period from FY2021-2022 to FY2023-2024 on the back of higher public and private investments, S&P said.<\/p>\n

Current account deficit to ease by the middle of the decade:<\/strong> Although the current account deficit will widen to 3.6% of GDP this fiscal year, the figure will narrow to 2.3% by FY2023-2024 driven by better global economic conditions and government measures to boost non-oil exports, S&P said. Debt-to-GDP will also start to decline as lower rates encourage the government to issue bonds with longer maturities and bring down risks of rolling over debt.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Egypt\u2019s sovereign credit rating at B with a stable outlook despite the disruptive impact of covid-19 on the country\u2019s tourism and exports as well as \u201celevated\u201d external debt, the ratings agency said on Friday, maintaining its rating since April 2020. Although external debt is rising on the back of lower […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":562127,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[104,72,1653,7103,238],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-562126","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-sp","tag-suez-canal","tag-tourism","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"1fd134ec-624a-4402-b295-075903f03f50","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/5\/67.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[562120],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nS&P gives Egypt a thumbs-up - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/05\/09\/sp-gives-egypt-a-thumbs-up\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&P gives Egypt a thumbs-up\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Egypt\u2019s sovereign credit rating at B with a stable outlook despite the disruptive impact of covid-19 on the country\u2019s tourism and exports as well as \u201celevated\u201d external debt, the ratings agency said on Friday, maintaining its rating since April 2020. 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S&P\u2019s outlook rests on the expectation that \u201cthe weakening of external and government debt metrics\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/11\/79.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":563651,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/07\/12\/egypts-external-debt-jumps-in-3q-2020-2021\/","url_meta":{"origin":562126,"position":1},"title":"Egypt\u2019s external debt jumps in 3Q 2020-2021","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 July 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt\u2019s external debt jumped by 21% in 3Q2020-2021 to USD 134.8 bn, compared to USD 111.3 bn in the same period in the previous fiscal year, according to central bank figures released yesterday. On a quarterly basis, external debt increased 4.3% from USD 129.2 bn in the second quarter.Blame lower\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/7\/169.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":586887,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/05\/18\/fitch-downgrades-credit-ratings-of-four-local-banks\/","url_meta":{"origin":562126,"position":2},"title":"Fitch downgrades credit ratings of four local banks","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 May 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The banks now have a rating of B, down from B+","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/5\/1032.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546769,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/05\/29\/moodys-egypt-outlook-turns-negative-on-rising-downside-risks\/","url_meta":{"origin":562126,"position":3},"title":"Moody\u2019s Egypt outlook turns negative on \u201crising downside risks\u201d","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 May 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Moody\u2019s has cut its outlook on Egypt\u2019s credit rating to negative as tightening financing conditions puts pressure on the country\u2019s ability to make external debt repayments, it said on Thursday. The ratings agency maintained Egypt\u2019s B2 rating but warned that a further drop in foreign reserves could force it to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":585586,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/04\/26\/sp-global-ratings-lowers-egypts-debt-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":562126,"position":4},"title":"S&P Global Ratings lowers Egypt\u2019s debt outlook","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 April 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"S&P + IMF + World Bank want to see progress in our policy implementation","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/4\/786.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":546046,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/04\/26\/sp-fitch-ratings-affirm-credit-rating-at-bb-b-say-outlook-stable-despite-russia-ukraine-war\/","url_meta":{"origin":562126,"position":5},"title":"S&P, Fitch ratings affirm credit rating at BB, B+, say outlook stable despite Russia-Ukraine war","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 April 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"S&P and Fitch Ratings have both affirmed Egypt\u2019s BB and B+ credit ratings with a stable outlook, despite surging food and energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine putting pressure on the country\u2019s finances, the two ratings agencies said last week (here and here). 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