{"id":562014,"date":"2021-05-04T03:36:15","date_gmt":"2021-05-04T03:36:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/05\/04\/egypt-remains-top-carry-trade-as-cbe-leaves-rates-on-hold\/"},"modified":"2021-05-04T03:36:15","modified_gmt":"2021-05-04T03:36:15","slug":"egypt-remains-top-carry-trade-as-cbe-leaves-rates-on-hold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/05\/04\/egypt-remains-top-carry-trade-as-cbe-leaves-rates-on-hold\/","title":{"rendered":"Egypt remains top carry trade as CBE leaves rates on hold"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left rates on hold<\/strong> for a fourth consecutive meeting last Wednesday as policymakers looked to keep Egypt\u2019s carry trade the most attractive in the world \u2014 and anticipated heightened inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) said in a statement (pdf)<\/a> following the meeting that indicators suggest the economy is recovering to pre-pandemic levels and that inflation has stabilized, though cautioned that international commodity and food prices are continuing to rise.<\/p>\n

Where do rates stand now?<\/strong> Overnight deposit and lending rates are unchanged at 8.25% and 9.25% respectively, while main operation and discount rates remain at 8.75%.<\/p>\n

The hold was expected by all 14 analysts and economists <\/strong>we surveyed<\/a><\/strong> ahead of the meeting. The pool was in agreement that rising commodity prices<\/strong> and heightened US interest rates<\/strong> would prompt the central bank to maintain rates at current levels to maintain portfolio flows and avoid stoking a pick up in inflation.<\/p>\n

The decision means <\/strong>Egypt\u2019s real rates continue to be the highest in the world<\/strong>, according to Bloomberg<\/a>, which tracks rates offered by 50 countries around the world. Egypt\u2019s real rate tops the list at 3.8%, with both Vietnam and Turkey coming in second at 2.8%.<\/p>\n

\u201cMonetar<\/strong>y policy has been driven by the need for inflows,\u201d <\/strong>Jefferies International MENA Analyst Alia Moubayed told Bloomberg TV (watch, runtime: 50:21<\/a>). \u201cIn the absence of a fast recovery, in tourism on the one hand but also FDI and a strong export boost, the central bank is using interest rate policy as a channel for further flows into the Egyptian economy and helping it to meet its large external financing needs for this year,\u201d she said. Foreign investment in EGP bonds eclipsed their pre-covid peak earlier this year, rising to USD 29 bn<\/a> in February. Egyptian debt saw some USD 18 bn in outflows between March and May last year as foreign investors fled to safe haven assets in response to the covid pandemic.<\/p>\n

The need <\/strong>for portfolio inflows will remain until tourism revenues begin to pick up and FDI increases<\/strong>, Bloomberg reported HSBC economist Simon Williams as saying before the meeting. Tourism revenues fell to just USD 1.78 bn between July and December, down from USD 7.25 bn during the same period in 2019, according to central bank figures.<\/p>\n

Keeping rates high is all the more important in the face of rising yields in the US: <\/strong>Egypt remains vulnerable to rising US yields which threaten to tempt foreign investors away from emerging markets, Pharos\u2019 head of research Radwa El Swaify told us. A rapid recovery in the US, combined with the bumper Biden stimulus package, has expectations high for a pick up in inflation, which has pushed up yields on US bonds in recent weeks. This caused emerging market bond funds to suffer their biggest outflows in almost a year<\/a> in March as investors were drawn back to US debt.<\/p>\n

Inflation has been muted this year despite rising global commodity prices: <\/strong>Annual urban inflation increased only slightly during the first quarter of the year, rising from 4.3%<\/a> in January to 4.5% in March<\/a>, despite a global backdrop of rising food and commodity prices. Food prices are now at highs not seen since 2013<\/a> while oil prices have recovered to pre-pandemic highs and metals are surging.<\/p>\n

But inflationary risks will likely remain limited: <\/strong>The base effect and global commodity and raw material prices are likely to push inflation up in the medium term, but prices will likely remain within the central bank\u2019s target range, El Swaify said. \u201cWe see inflation fluctuating just below 4% in 2Q2021 before rising to 5-6% y-o-y during the second half of the year, ending FY2020-2021 at an average of 4.5%,\u201d El Swaify said. This is still short of the central bank\u2019s 7% (\u00b1 2%) target range.<\/p>\n

SPEAKING OF FX- Egypt\u2019s foreign currency reserves can now cover over seven months <\/strong>of imports<\/strong>, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said in a statement<\/a> Wednesday. Egypt added another USD 140 mn<\/a> to its reserves in March to end the month at USD 40.34 bn.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left rates on hold for a fourth consecutive meeting last Wednesday as policymakers looked to keep Egypt\u2019s carry trade the most attractive in the world \u2014 and anticipated heightened inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) said in a statement (pdf) following the meeting that indicators suggest the economy is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":562015,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[82,2082,271,317,107,104,115,72,1318,182,349,1041],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-562014","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-bonds","tag-carry-trade","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-commodities","tag-covid-19","tag-economy","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-fiscal-policy","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-treasuries","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"6c5d1ef9-6305-4119-a57e-4a6f45c6f2d5","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/5\/18.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[562009],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nEgypt remains top carry trade as CBE leaves rates on hold - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/05\/04\/egypt-remains-top-carry-trade-as-cbe-leaves-rates-on-hold\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Egypt remains top carry trade as CBE leaves rates on hold\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left rates on hold for a fourth consecutive meeting last Wednesday as policymakers looked to keep Egypt\u2019s carry trade the most attractive in the world \u2014 and anticipated heightened inflation. 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The decision comes amid growing global concern about a new, faster\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/12\/434.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":598424,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/26\/egypts-central-bank-keeps-interest-rates-on-hold\/","url_meta":{"origin":562014,"position":2},"title":"Egypt\u2019s central bank keeps interest rates on hold","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"26 May 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"With one eye on inflation, the central bank leaves interest rates on hold: The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee left key interest rates unchanged on Thursday, in line with analyst expectations. The MPC left the overnight deposit and lending rates at 15.75% and 16.75%, respectively, and also left\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2018\/11\/1115.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":543516,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/02\/06\/cbe-leaves-rates-unchanged-in-first-meeting-of-2022\/","url_meta":{"origin":562014,"position":3},"title":"CBE leaves rates unchanged in first meeting of 2022","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 February 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left interest rates on hold for the tenth consecutive meeting on Thursday. The CBE left the overnight deposit rate at 8.25% and the lending rate at 9.25%, while the main operation and discount rates are still at 8.75%, it said in a statement (pdf)\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/2\/60.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":554051,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/12\/19\/cbe-leaves-rates-on-hold-in-final-meeting-of-2021\/","url_meta":{"origin":562014,"position":4},"title":"CBE leaves rates on hold in final meeting of 2021","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 December 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left interest rates on hold for the ninth consecutive meeting on Thursday as policymakers weighed the possibility of sooner-than-expected US rate hikes in 2022 and the economic impact of the Omicron variant of the virus that causes covid-19. The central bank left the overnight\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/12\/382.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":559842,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/02\/07\/as-expected-central-bank-leaves-rates-on-hold\/","url_meta":{"origin":562014,"position":5},"title":"As expected, central bank leaves rates on hold","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"7 February 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s (CBE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left rates on hold during its first meeting of 2021 on Thursday, citing \u201csubdued\u201d economic activity. The second wave of the covid-19 pandemic and efforts to contain it continue to weigh on the economy\u2019s near-term prospects, despite loose financial conditions,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/2\/104.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/562014","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=562014"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/562014\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/562009"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/562015"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=562014"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=562014"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=562014"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=562014"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=562014"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}