{"id":561904,"date":"2021-04-26T04:00:19","date_gmt":"2021-04-26T04:00:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/26\/were-still-a-carry-trade-darling\/"},"modified":"2021-04-26T04:00:19","modified_gmt":"2021-04-26T04:00:19","slug":"were-still-a-carry-trade-darling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/26\/were-still-a-carry-trade-darling\/","title":{"rendered":"We\u2019re still a carry trade darling"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Egypt\u2019s carry trade is set to continue its upward trajectory thanks to our attractive<\/strong> real interest rates and low-risk environment<\/strong>, Hasnain Malik, head of equity research at emerging markets research firm Tellimer, told Bloomberg (watch, runtime: 6:57<\/a>). \u201cWith a real interest rate close to 4%, very low currency risk because you\u2019ve got very healthy FX reserves, and you\u2019ve also got the policy credibility gains from the IMF program still there \u2014 that will last for some time,\u201d Malik said.<\/p>\n

We\u2019re set to overtake Turkey as the most attractive EM carry trade:<\/strong> \u201cThe Egyptian carry trade has remained an investor favourite,\u201d particularly as confidence in the Turkish carry trade craters with the downward spiral of the TRY<\/a> following the dismissal of the central bank governor<\/a> last month, Tellimer\u2019s Patrick Curran wrote in a recent research note.<\/a> HC Securities\u2019 Monette Doss estimates that Turkey has a real yield of around 4% on 19-month bills compared to the 3.9% yield offered by one-year Egyptian treasuries.<\/p>\n

As important as the carry trade is, high rates may discourage private sector investment:<\/strong> \u201cThe paradox in Egypt is that we\u2019d like to see a bit more of private sector-led growth,\u201d rather than having the focus centered squarely on foreign inflows into the local currency debt market, said Malik. This is unlikely to happen while interest rates remain elevated, as investors will continue to be drawn to low-risk, high-return government bonds instead of choosing to pour into private sector investments.<\/p>\n

And they could hurt the equity market: <\/strong>Egyptian equities \u201cto remain [underpriced] and moribund for a little bit longer\u201d thanks to the high interest rate environment, said Malik. The EGX ended a near two-year IPO drought earlier this month when education outfit Taaleem made its debut on the bourse<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Regardless, the carry trade remains a priority: <\/strong>All 14 economists we surveyed<\/a> last week said they expected the Central Bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee to leave rates on hold during its upcoming meeting, with many citing the need to protect the attractiveness of Egypt\u2019s carry trade as reasoning for the hold.<\/p>\n

What the heck is a carry trade, anyway?<\/strong> We have a handy explainer here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Egypt\u2019s carry trade is set to continue its upward trajectory thanks to our attractive real interest rates and low-risk environment, Hasnain Malik, head of equity research at emerging markets research firm Tellimer, told Bloomberg (watch, runtime: 6:57). \u201cWith a real interest rate close to 4%, very low currency risk because you\u2019ve got very healthy FX […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":561905,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[82,2082,7106,104,115,72,655],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-561904","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-bonds","tag-carry-trade","tag-debt","tag-economy","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-foreign-reserves","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"c1816616-c2bb-4b6e-a801-81f8adf1c565","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/4\/263.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[561898],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nWe\u2019re still a carry trade darling - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/26\/were-still-a-carry-trade-darling\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"We\u2019re still a carry trade darling\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Egypt\u2019s carry trade is set to continue its upward trajectory thanks to our attractive real interest rates and low-risk environment, Hasnain Malik, head of equity research at emerging markets research firm Tellimer, told Bloomberg (watch, runtime: 6:57). \u201cWith a real interest rate close to 4%, very low currency risk because you\u2019ve got very healthy FX […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/26\/were-still-a-carry-trade-darling\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EnterpriseAM Egypt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-04-26T04:00:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/4\/263.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/26\/were-still-a-carry-trade-darling\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/26\/were-still-a-carry-trade-darling\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"enterpriseam admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d\"},\"headline\":\"We\u2019re still a carry trade darling\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-04-26T04:00:19+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/26\/were-still-a-carry-trade-darling\/\"},\"wordCount\":364,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/26\/were-still-a-carry-trade-darling\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/4\/263.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\",\"keywords\":[\"Bonds\",\"carry trade\",\"debt\",\"economy\",\"emerging markets\",\"EnterpriseAM\",\"foreign reserves\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Economy\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/26\/were-still-a-carry-trade-darling\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/26\/were-still-a-carry-trade-darling\/\",\"name\":\"We\u2019re still a carry trade darling - 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While Ukraine\u2019s sovereign\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/2\/337.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":562745,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/06\/goldman-says-cbe-could-cut-rates-this-month-reserves-were-up-in-may\/","url_meta":{"origin":561904,"position":1},"title":"Goldman says CBE could cut rates this month + reserves were up in May","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 June 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) can afford to cut rates by as much as 50 bps at its meeting later this month, Goldman Sachs MENA economist Farouk Soussa told Bloomberg (watch, runtime 7:12). \u201cWe see a very strong case for rate cuts in the near term, as in June.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/6\/64.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":562014,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/05\/04\/egypt-remains-top-carry-trade-as-cbe-leaves-rates-on-hold\/","url_meta":{"origin":561904,"position":2},"title":"Egypt remains top carry trade as CBE leaves rates on hold","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 May 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left rates on hold for a fourth consecutive meeting last Wednesday as policymakers looked to keep Egypt\u2019s carry trade the most attractive in the world \u2014 and anticipated heightened inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) said in a statement (pdf) following the meeting that\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/5\/18.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":548923,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/08\/28\/now-is-the-time-to-invest-in-the-egx-says-tellimer\/","url_meta":{"origin":561904,"position":3},"title":"Now is the time to invest in the EGX, says Tellimer","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"28 August 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"EGX-listed stocks are trading at a 50% discount to their recent five-year average, creating a good buy for investors, Hasnain Malik, head of equity research at Tellimer, tells Bloomberg (watch, runtime: 6:13). Undervalued EGX stocks represent a good \u201cshort-term trade\u201d as the expected IMF loan, Gulf support, and a potential\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Capital markets"","block_context":{"text":"Capital markets","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/industries\/capital-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":575211,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/10\/06\/enterprise-explains-the-carry-trade\/","url_meta":{"origin":561904,"position":4},"title":"Enterprise Explains: The carry trade","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"6 October 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Enterprise Explains: The carry trade: Much has been made recently about the return of the carry trade to Egypt, long an appealing source of high returns for foreign investors and an important source of hard currency. It showed resilience in the face of the economic fallout from covid-19, and rebounded\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Enterprise explains"","block_context":{"text":"Enterprise explains","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/explainers\/enterprise-explains\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/60.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":596258,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/08\/22\/cbe-likely-to-cut-rates-today-economists\/","url_meta":{"origin":561904,"position":5},"title":"CBE likely to cut rates today -economists","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 August 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"There\u2019s a growing consensus for a rate cut today: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will cut its benchmark overnight deposit rate by \u201cat least\u201d 100 basis points when it meets later today as easing inflation and a stable EGP offset concerns of a sell-off, according to 10 of 12\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/8\/580.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/561904","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=561904"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/561904\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/561898"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/561905"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=561904"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=561904"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=561904"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=561904"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=561904"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}