{"id":561862,"date":"2021-04-25T04:00:37","date_gmt":"2021-04-25T04:00:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/25\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-rates-on-hold-at-upcoming-meeting\/"},"modified":"2021-04-25T04:00:37","modified_gmt":"2021-04-25T04:00:37","slug":"enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-rates-on-hold-at-upcoming-meeting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/25\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-rates-on-hold-at-upcoming-meeting\/","title":{"rendered":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave rates on hold at upcoming meeting"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> ENTERPRISE POLL- The CBE is expected to leave rates on hold:<\/strong> Rising commodity prices and higher US yields will likely prompt the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) to leave interest rates on hold at its next meeting,, according to an Enterprise poll. All 14 analysts and economists we surveyed expect the central bank to continue its cautious approach and hold off on making further cuts until the second half of the year, particularly as a number of emerging market central banks hiked rates last month<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Where rates currently stand:<\/strong> The CBE\u2019s overnight deposit rate stands at 8.25% and the lending rate is 9.25%, while the main operation and discount rates are at 8.75%. The central bank slashed rates by 400 bps last year, including an emergency 300-bps cut in March<\/a> to protect the economy from the fallout from covid-19, and two 50-bps cuts in September<\/a> and November<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The two key factors: commodity prices and rising interest rates:<\/strong> \u201cWe\u2019re looking for rates to remain on hold as the situation that existed in the last meeting prevails, namely elevated rates globally and high commodity prices,\u201d EFG Hermes\u2019 Mohamed Abu Basha told us.<\/p>\n

Inflationary pressures have so far remained muted:<\/strong> Inflation has risen only slightly during the first quarter despite a backdrop of rising global commodity prices. The annual urban rate has increased from 4.3%<\/a> in January to reaching 4.5%<\/a> in March. This figure is still short of the central bank\u2019s 7% (\u00b1 2%) target range.<\/p>\n

But this will likely change in the months ahead:<\/strong> \u201cInflation will gain momentum in the next couple of months as the impact of rising global commodity prices trickles down to the general economy,\u201d Beltone\u2019s head of research Alia Mamdouh told us. The restocking of essential food items amid the global increase in raw material prices will likely cause increased upward price pressure on foodstuffs \u2014 and will inform the CBE\u2019s decision to leave rates unchanged, said CI Capital\u2019s Sara Saada. Meanwhile, Sigma Capital head of research Abou Bakr Imam says the central bank will not make any policy changes until it assesses the impact of the increased public sector wages<\/a> due to come in in July, which he expects will cause inflation to accelerate.<\/p>\n

The base effect could mitigate this:<\/strong> Naeem Brokerage\u2019s Allen Sandeep notes that a favorable base effect could keep price growth in check. \u201cWhile we do expect a pick-up in monthly inflation going forward, the favorable base year factor should absorb most of it even considering the possibility of a fuel price hike in July,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Higher US treasury yields could still tempt foreign investors Westwards:<\/strong> Rising commodity prices and cheaper US treasuries (as a result of higher yields) \u201cwill trigger the CBE to maintain a high real interest rate environment in order to maintain portfolio attractiveness, which is key to the stability of the EGP given the slow recovery in the tourism sector,\u201d said Mamdouh.<\/p>\n

Recent rate hikes by EM central banks could add a bit of pressure to leave things unchanged in Egypt: <\/strong>\u201cWe\u2019ve seen some emerging markets start to hike rates. In that respect, we think the CBE will continue with its stance of holding rates steady,\u201d Abu Basha said. Policymakers across 37 EMs delivered five net interest rate hikes last month, signaling a switch in direction from monetary easing for the first time since February 2019, we noted last week<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The CBE has nurtured Egypt\u2019s position as one of the world\u2019s most lucrative carry trades<\/strong> in the face of rising US yields. Any rate cuts at this point could dim the attractiveness of sovereign debt to foreigners, says independent analyst Hany Aboul Fotouh. As pressure on sources of foreign currency remains \u201csignificant\u201d and as the economy still faces \u201cpandemic-related distortions\u201d and structural weaknesses, the central bank will likely champion the role of foreign portfolio investment to finance the nation\u2019s current account deficit, Prime Holding\u2019s Mona Bedeir said. But with the prevalence of \u201cglobal volatility and weak prospects of foreign portfolio flow momentum,\u201d the CBE is unlikely to cut rates at the moment, said CI Capital\u2019s Saada. Emerging markets last month saw daily outflows for the first time since October as the uptick in US treasury yields<\/a> this year dented the EM asset rally and raised the spectre of a repeat of 2013\u2019s so-called Taper Tantrum<\/a>.<\/p>\n

How good is Egypt\u2019s carry trade? <\/strong>HC Securities\u2019 Monette Doss, who sees the MPC leaving rates unchanged, benchmarks us against Turkey, which she estimates has a real yield of c. 4% on 19-month treasuries. \u201cThis compares to a real yield of 3.9% on Egypt\u2019s 12M T-bills,\u201d she says, \u201cgiven a 15% tax rate for US and European investors and our inflation forecast of 7.5% over the next 12 months.\u201d<\/p>\n

For now, the CBE will continue to rely on subsidized lending to boost activity in certain sectors<\/strong>, Suez Canal Bank\u2019s Mohamed Abdel Aal said. Many companies in Egypt currently have access to loans at sub-market rates backed by the CBE, under initiatives that were introduced in recent years and expanded when the covid-19 pandemic took hold \u2014 including EGP 200 bn<\/a> in loans to factories and EGP 50 bn<\/a> in support to the hard-hit tourism sector.<\/p>\n

So, when can we expect the next rate cut? <\/strong>Not until the late summer\/early fall is the loose consensus. The CBE will likely continue holding rates at least until August, with the first cut likely to take place after Egypt makes it back onto JPMorgan\u2019s emerging-markets government bond index, Arqaam Capital\u2019s Noaman Khalid says. Reinclusion on the index could attract up to USD 4.8 bn of passive inflows into Egyptian bonds and a potential 5% appreciation of the EGP against the greenback, Rand Merchant Bank economist Neville Mandimika recently said<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Towards the end of the year seems the most likely window for cuts<\/strong>, say Beltone\u2019s Mamdouh and Pharos Holding\u2019s Radwa El Swaify, who sees \u201cmore reasons for CBE to make no interest rate cuts and keep any potential cuts to later this year.\u201d But there is a slim chance that the rate cut might be brought slightly forward if growth remains muted. \u201cIf the economic recovery remains slow-going, policymakers may opt to loosen monetary conditions sooner,\u201d Capital Economics\u2019 Jason Tuvey wrote in a research note.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ENTERPRISE POLL- The CBE is expected to leave rates on hold: Rising commodity prices and higher US yields will likely prompt the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) to leave interest rates on hold at its next meeting,, according to an Enterprise poll. All 14 analysts and economists we surveyed expect the central bank to continue […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":561863,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7359],"tags":[271,7106,611,72,182,349,724,7358],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-561862","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-poll","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-debt","tag-enterprise-poll","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-poll","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"8910da7e-ed9e-445f-b3f5-83332b197e55","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/4\/246.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[561858],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave rates on hold at upcoming meeting - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/25\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-rates-on-hold-at-upcoming-meeting\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave rates on hold at upcoming meeting\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"ENTERPRISE POLL- The CBE is expected to leave rates on hold: Rising commodity prices and higher US yields will likely prompt the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) to leave interest rates on hold at its next meeting,, according to an Enterprise poll. 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All 11 economists and analysts surveyed expect the MPC to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/9\/210.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":570452,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/04\/01\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-rates-on-hold-in-april-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":561862,"position":2},"title":"Enterprise Poll: CBE to leave rates on hold in April meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"1 April 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave rates on hold tomorrow: The Central Bank of Egypt is likely to leave interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee meets tomorrow, according to a poll of analysts conducted by Enterprise. 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All 11 analysts and economists we surveyed expect the central bank to stick to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "POLL"","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/6\/165.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":560789,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/14\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-interest-rates-on-hold-this-thursday\/","url_meta":{"origin":561862,"position":4},"title":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave interest rates on hold this Thursday","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 March 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave interest rates on hold this Thursday: Rising global commodity prices and a pick-up in US treasury yields will likely mean that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave interest rates unchanged when its Monetary Policy Committee meets this Thursday, according to an Enterprise poll.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "POLL"","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/3\/183.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":571394,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/05\/11\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-interest-rates-unchanged-in-may-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":561862,"position":5},"title":"Enterprise Poll: CBE to leave interest rates unchanged in May 2020","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 May 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave interest rates unchanged when it meets this week: The Central Bank of Egypt will likely leave rates on hold for the second consecutive month when its monetary policy committee meets later this week, according to a poll of analysts conducted by Enterprise. 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