{"id":561793,"date":"2021-04-21T03:43:04","date_gmt":"2021-04-21T03:43:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/21\/egypts-economy-to-grow-3-1-this-fiscal-year-says-bnp-paribas\/"},"modified":"2021-04-21T03:43:04","modified_gmt":"2021-04-21T03:43:04","slug":"egypts-economy-to-grow-3-1-this-fiscal-year-says-bnp-paribas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/21\/egypts-economy-to-grow-3-1-this-fiscal-year-says-bnp-paribas\/","title":{"rendered":"Egypt\u2019s economy to grow 3.1% this fiscal year, says BNP Paribas"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> Egypt\u2019s economy is expected to grow at a 3.1% clip in the government\u2019s current 2020-2021 fiscal year<\/strong>, down from 3.8% in the previous fiscal year, on the back of declining tourism revenues at the outset of the pandemic, BNP Paribas said in a recent economic research report (pdf)<\/a>. Fiscal support and foreign assistance played a central role in the resilience of Egypt\u2019s economic activity against covid-19 headwinds, the bank said. BNP Paribas\u2019 forecast for the current fiscal year is slightly higher than Fitch Solutions<\/a>, whose estimates put Egypt\u2019s GDP growth at 2.9% in FY2020-2021. Fitch said Egypt is expected to be among three MENA economies to eke out pre-covid growth rates in the next fiscal year.<\/p>\n

But the current account deficit is expected to widen to 3.9% in FY2020-2021<\/strong> as tourism revenues slump to 40% y-o-y during the fiscal year. Meanwhile, Egypt\u2019s \u201climited\u201d vaccine rollout means \u201cthe health situation remains a significant source of uncertainty that could continue to weigh on the Egyptian economy,\u201d BNP Paribas said. The bank also pointed to the continued vulnerability of external accounts as a potential drag on Egypt\u2019s medium-term economic recovery.<\/p>\n

Despite headwinds, Egypt\u2019s GDP is forecast to grow at a 5.3% clip in <\/strong>FY2021<\/strong>-2022,<\/strong> supported by a rebound in consumer spending and activity in the construction sector. A draft budget to boost local demand and pay special attention to structural spending, an uptick in oil production, and a gradual recovery in tourism could also safeguard against possible downturns, the report suggests.<\/p>\n

2020\u2019s energy balance surplus will be short-lived:<\/strong> Egypt\u2019s external balance on refined products jumped to record highs in 2020, with the country exporting 17k bbl\/d, though the overall balance of trade in oil remained significantly in the red at -101k bbl\/d. Though LNG exports picked up late last year amid increased demand from Asia, \u201cthe prospects for LNG exports remain uncertain for the short term,\u201d because of the volatility of LNG prices on the spot market, which may fall below Egypt\u2019s breakeven point, thereby limiting exports.<\/p>\n

And much higher principal repayments of external debt are expected in <\/strong>FY2021<\/strong>-2022:<\/strong> Though IMF SDRs are likely to ensure foreign currency liquidity in the short term, inflows are likely to suffer at the hands of higher US treasury yields in the coming fiscal year. Government debt is expected to peak at 94% of GDP by the end of FY2021-2022, \u201cgiven the persistent budget deficit and real interest rates that have moved back into positive territory since 2020.\u201d However, Egypt\u2019s current account deficit is expected to narrow slightly in value to reach USD 14.7 bn in FY2021-2022, with public debt gradually rebounding to 89% of GDP by FY2023-2024.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Egypt\u2019s economy is expected to grow at a 3.1% clip in the government\u2019s current 2020-2021 fiscal year, down from 3.8% in the previous fiscal year, on the back of declining tourism revenues at the outset of the pandemic, BNP Paribas said in a recent economic research report (pdf). Fiscal support and foreign assistance played a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":561794,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[8901,943,864,107,7106,104,93,72,91,238,132],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-561793","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-asia","tag-bnp-paribas","tag-budget-deficit","tag-covid-19","tag-debt","tag-economy","tag-energy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-oil-and-gas","tag-tourism","tag-trade","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"ce1ad6a5-afd1-42c5-8e3b-31955aab8bd8","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/4\/213.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[561781],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nEgypt\u2019s economy to grow 3.1% this fiscal year, says BNP Paribas - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/21\/egypts-economy-to-grow-3-1-this-fiscal-year-says-bnp-paribas\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Egypt\u2019s economy to grow 3.1% this fiscal year, says BNP Paribas\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Egypt\u2019s economy is expected to grow at a 3.1% clip in the government\u2019s current 2020-2021 fiscal year, down from 3.8% in the previous fiscal year, on the back of declining tourism revenues at the outset of the pandemic, BNP Paribas said in a recent economic research report (pdf). 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Growth for the current fiscal year will come in at 3%, a downgrade\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":651257,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/02\/08\/egypts-economy-to-bottom-out-in-the-current-fiscal-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":561793,"position":1},"title":"Egypt\u2019s economy to bottom out in the current fiscal year","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"8 February 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"The general optimism on the economy continues as Egypt\u2019s economy should bottom out and start improving in FY2016-17, according to a report by BNP Paribas. \u201cSeveral factors will undoubtedly have a positive macroeconomic impact, including the floating pound, improvements in foreign currency liquidity, the accelerated pace of fiscal reforms, and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":586548,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/05\/14\/bnp-paribas-citi-analysts-think-an-imminent-egp-deval-looks-increasingly-unlikely\/","url_meta":{"origin":561793,"position":2},"title":"BNP Paribas, Citi analysts think an imminent EGP deval looks increasingly unlikely","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 May 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Policymakers could wait for FX inflows before any further devaluation","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/5\/697.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":549063,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2022\/09\/01\/bnp-paribas-thinks-were-getting-usd-3-5-bn-from-the-imf\/","url_meta":{"origin":561793,"position":3},"title":"BNP Paribas thinks we\u2019re getting USD 3-5 bn from the IMF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"1 September 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"BNP Paribas has revised down its prediction on the size of the loan we\u2019ll be getting from the IMF to USD 3-5 bn in a research note yesterday. The French bank in July said we would need USD 10 bn or more from the multilateral lender to plug our growing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/9\/92.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":597726,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/05\/02\/deeper-structural-reforms-are-needed-for-increased-investment-bnp\/","url_meta":{"origin":561793,"position":4},"title":"Deeper structural reforms are needed for increased investment: BNP","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 May 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt needs to deepen structural reforms if it wants to spur private-sector investment and job creation, BNP Paribas said in a recent report (pdf). While macroeconomic imbalances have largely been corrected, structural issues such as the informal economy have not yet been fixed, BNP says. High government debt, insufficient job\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/5\/1559.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":638663,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2017\/10\/11\/bnp-paribas-says-cairo-trip-reaffirms-positive-outlook-on-egyptian-economy\/","url_meta":{"origin":561793,"position":5},"title":"BNP Paribas says Cairo trip reaffirms positive outlook on Egyptian economy","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 October 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent visit to Cairo by BNP Paribas reps reaffirmed the bank\u2019s \u201cpositive outlook on the Egyptian economy, whilst highlighted the key challenge of competitiveness in the medium term,\u201d according to trip notes sent to Enterprise (pdf). \u201cOngoing reforms (monetary and fiscal) have put the Egyptian economy on the right\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/561793","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=561793"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/561793\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/561781"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/561794"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=561793"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=561793"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=561793"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=561793"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=561793"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}