{"id":560968,"date":"2021-03-21T04:09:22","date_gmt":"2021-03-21T04:09:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/21\/cbe-leaves-interest-rates-on-hold\/"},"modified":"2021-03-21T04:09:22","modified_gmt":"2021-03-21T04:09:22","slug":"cbe-leaves-interest-rates-on-hold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/21\/cbe-leaves-interest-rates-on-hold\/","title":{"rendered":"CBE leaves interest rates on hold"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s (CBE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to <\/strong>leave rates unchanged<\/strong> for a third consecutive time during its meeting on Thursday, accounting for the possibility of a further uptick of global commodity prices, the bank said in a statement (pdf)<\/a>. Overnight deposit and lending rates remain unchanged at 8.25% and 9.25% respectively, while main operation and discount rates remain at 8.75%.<\/p>\n

The hold was expected by all <\/strong>12 analysts we surveyed<\/a><\/strong> ahead of the meeting. They cited the possible impact of heightened commodity prices on domestic inflation and the potential for rising bond yields in the US to hit our all-important carry trade.<\/p>\n

Holding rates <\/strong>is consistent<\/strong> with achieving the target inflation rate of 7% +\/-2 by the end of next year<\/strong>, the CBE said in its statement. The country\u2019s \u201cleading indicators are gradually recovering to their pre-pandemic levels,\u201d while \u201cglobal economic and financial conditions are expected to remain accommodative and supportive of economic activity over the medium term,\u201d despite a recent pickup in global bond yields.<\/p>\n

The new highs recorded in global food and commodity prices including oil were a main driver of the CBE\u2019s decision<\/strong>, EFG Hermes\u2019 Head of Macro Mohamed Abu Basha and Beltone's head of research Alia Mamdouh told us, with the CBE expecting a possible pick up in the rate of inflation in the coming months. Annual urban inflation accelerated to 4.5% in February<\/a> after a drop to 4.3% in January<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The seasonal increase in food prices accompanying Ramadan is likely to drive up inflation<\/strong>, Pharos\u2019 head of research Radwa El Swaify told us. Over the second and third quarters of 2021, inflation will fluctuate between 5% and 7% on an annual basis, driven mainly by the base effect, she said. As for the full year, EFG Hermes\u2019 Abu Basha forecasts inflation to average 6% amid expected increases in food and commodity prices, while Beltone\u2019s Mamdouh sees inflation at an average of 7%, though it may cross this level if there is unexpected seasonality in prices or spending, he said.<\/p>\n

But price growth could remain weaker until the end of the summer: <\/strong>Egypt is unlikely to see severe inflationary pressures due to increasing stockpiles of commodities to meet demand for eight months, said Mamdouh. Egypt said in January it had enough strategic wheat reserves<\/a> for the next five months, sugar for the next eight months, and oil for the next four. This could change after the summer when the government has built up its stockpiles of key commodities, she said.<\/p>\n

The carry trade remains attractive: <\/strong>Egypt\u2019s real rates are still the highest in the world \u2014 and the country is in a better position to weather possible outflows than countries like Brazil and Turkey due to its positive growth rate in 2020<\/a>, Abu Basha said, adding that Egypt has not witnessed outflows in the first two months of the year due to offering high real yields. Foreign holdings in local Egyptian debt hit its<\/a>highest-ever level of USD 28.5 bn<\/a> in February, reversing the 60% capital outflows<\/a> prompted by covid-19 between March and May last year, Bloomberg<\/a> notes.<\/p>\n

Still, Egypt remains vulnerable to rising US treasury yields<\/strong> which threaten to tempt foreign investors away from emerging markets, El Swaify told us. Emerging-market bond funds saw their biggest outflows in almost a year<\/a> earlier this month as investors lost their appetite for risk amid rising rates in the US while EM currencies are down 1% since February. \u201cWhile portfolio flows and the pound have remained broadly stable in recent weeks, we believe Egypt is not immune to these developments,\u201d said Goldman Sachs economist Farouk Soussa ahead of the meeting.<\/p>\n

This is despite a raft of rate hikes in emerging markets last week:<\/strong> Russia<\/a>, Brazil<\/a> and Turkey<\/a> all took action and hiked rates last week in what some are predicting to be the start of a tightening cycle to ward off stimulus-fueled inflation. Russia\u2019s central bank unexpectedly increased rates for the first time since 2018 as inflation inches towards new five-year highs while Brazil went ahead with its first rate-hike in six years, raising them by 75 bps, higher than the 50 bps expected by economists.<\/p>\n

And a reversal of the easing cycle could be in the cards if current trends accelerate: <\/strong>The CBE is in \u201cwait-and-see\u201d mode, but may raise interest rates if US treasury yields and commodity prices continue to rise at a rapid pace, according to Abu Basha. Meanwhile, Beltone\u2019s Mamdouh notes that any higher rates are subject to global economic developments. Since 2018 the central bank has reduced its benchmark interest rate from 18.75%. It cut rates by a total of 400 bps last year, including an emergency 300-bps cut in March<\/a> and two 50-bps cuts<\/a>in September and November to support the economy through the pandemic.<\/p>\n

SPEAKING OF TURKEY: President <\/strong>Recep Tayyip Erdogan sacked his third central bank governor since mid-2019. <\/strong>The move came two days after the central bank hiked rates a sharp 875 bps to 19% in a bid to stave off inflation. The new governor is a former MP from Erdogan\u2019s AK Party who has publicly backed the president\u2019s demand for lower rates. Reuters<\/a> has more.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s (CBE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to leave rates unchanged for a third consecutive time during its meeting on Thursday, accounting for the possibility of a further uptick of global commodity prices, the bank said in a statement (pdf). Overnight deposit and lending rates remain unchanged at 8.25% and 9.25% […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":560969,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7206],"tags":[271,104,115,72,182,349],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-560968","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"8aec33ff-7ac6-4c37-ac87-0e08f836cad9","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/3\/254.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[560963],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nCBE leaves interest rates on hold - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/21\/cbe-leaves-interest-rates-on-hold\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"CBE leaves interest rates on hold\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s (CBE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to leave rates unchanged for a third consecutive time during its meeting on Thursday, accounting for the possibility of a further uptick of global commodity prices, the bank said in a statement (pdf). 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The CBE left the overnight deposit rate at 8.25% and the lending rate at 9.25%, while the main operation and discount rates are still at 8.75%, it said in a statement (pdf)\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/2\/60.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":562014,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/05\/04\/egypt-remains-top-carry-trade-as-cbe-leaves-rates-on-hold\/","url_meta":{"origin":560968,"position":1},"title":"Egypt remains top carry trade as CBE leaves rates on hold","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"4 May 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) left rates on hold for a fourth consecutive meeting last Wednesday as policymakers looked to keep Egypt\u2019s carry trade the most attractive in the world \u2014 and anticipated heightened inflation. 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Overnight deposit and lending rates were kept unchanged at 8.25% and 9.25%, respectively, while the main\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/8\/110.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":557421,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/09\/19\/cbe-leaves-rates-on-hold-for-seventh-consecutive-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":560968,"position":4},"title":"CBE leaves rates on hold for seventh consecutive meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"19 September 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Central Bank of Egypt\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left interest rates on hold for a seventh consecutive meeting on Thursday. Overnight deposit and lending rates were left unchanged at 8.25% and 9.25%, respectively, while the main operation and discount rates remained at 8.75%, the central bank said in a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/9\/247.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":561862,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/25\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-rates-on-hold-at-upcoming-meeting\/","url_meta":{"origin":560968,"position":5},"title":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave rates on hold at upcoming meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"25 April 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- The CBE is expected to leave rates on hold: Rising commodity prices and higher US yields will likely prompt the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) to leave interest rates on hold at its next meeting,, according to an Enterprise poll. All 14 analysts and economists we surveyed expect\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "POLL"","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/4\/246.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/560968","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=560968"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/560968\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/560963"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/560969"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=560968"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=560968"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=560968"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=560968"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=560968"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}