{"id":560825,"date":"2021-03-15T05:35:05","date_gmt":"2021-03-15T05:35:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/15\/egypt-will-be-back-near-pre-pandemic-growth-rates-by-next-year-afdb\/"},"modified":"2021-03-15T05:35:05","modified_gmt":"2021-03-15T05:35:05","slug":"egypt-will-be-back-near-pre-pandemic-growth-rates-by-next-year-afdb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/15\/egypt-will-be-back-near-pre-pandemic-growth-rates-by-next-year-afdb\/","title":{"rendered":"Egypt will be back near pre-pandemic growth rates by next year \u2013AfDB"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-02\"><\/a> <strong>Egypt\u2019s economy will be back near its pre-pandemic growth rate in 2022<\/strong>, coming in at 4.9% compared to the 5.6% recorded in 2019, according to estimates in the African Development Bank\u2019s (AfDB) <a href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/3\/afdb21-01_aeo_main_english_complete_0223.pdf\">2021 Economic Outlook report (pdf)<\/a>. While our economy grew at a 3.6% clip last year \u201cdespite the relatively severe health impact of the virus in the country,\u201d the pandemic has exacerbated our short-term refinancing needs and exposed structural vulnerabilities, the report said.<\/p>\n<p><strong>High domestic consumption was key to Egypt avoiding contraction<\/strong>, bucking a trend that gripped most world economies. Cushioning the blow: strong fiscal buffers after years of consolidation, which kept the overall budget deficit unchanged at 8% of GDP in 2020; slowing inflation, giving room for monetary expansion and allowing exports to grow faster than imports. (Still consumption is <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/7677e06d-176e-4ee3-af31-88f320cc8ac6\">not always the most sustainable driver<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Growth is expected to remain subdued at 3% in 2021 <\/strong>as tourism is capped by the pandemic, keeping prospects for overall goods and service exports muted. Weak growth in Europe, Egypt\u2019s largest trade partner and main inbound tourism market, is also expected to hamper the recovery. Previous forecasts by the IMF and Fitch Ratings, had put growth between 5 and 5.5% in FY2021-2022.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Weak private investment is also forecast to weigh on the outlook for the coming year<\/strong>, though capex could pick up over the medium term as a result of an \u201cimproved investment climate,\u201d the bank said.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Covid-19 made exaggerated Egypt\u2019s already significant refinancing<\/strong>, with 60% of government debt set to mature in one year or less, according to the report. The report notes that recent credit facilities lengthened the average maturity of public debt, with Egypt receiving a combined USD 8 bn in <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/21258759-15a5-4f32-bd15-b6710a8f13f6\">covid financing<\/a> and tapping the international debt market with a <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/94498ea7-0305-484a-9bac-6085ffdec1ca\">USD 3.75 bn bond sale last month<\/a>, and a <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/925263b4-1bc7-4df7-bcdc-3335f83063f0\">record USD 5 bn sale last year<\/a>. But more needs to be done to further extend the tenor of debt, with Egypt\u2019s total debt stock projected to grow 90.6% this year before falling back to 77.2% in 2025, the report notes.<\/p>\n<p><strong>And \u201cserious debt challenges might be looming\u201d for the continent at large:<\/strong> Average debt-to-GDP ratio for African countries is seen climbing 10-15% in the short-to-medium term to reach 70-75% in 2021 with \u201cdirect implications\u201d on budgets and debt burdens, the bank said.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Overall, Africa\u2019s GDP is forecast to grow an average 3.4% this year<\/strong>, reversing a 2.2% contraction in 2020 as tourism gradually resumes, commodity prices rebound, and governments ease pandemic restrictions, the AfDB said.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Egypt\u2019s 2020 3.6% growth rate helped buoy North Africa economies<\/strong>, with the region only collectively contracting an estimated 1.1% in 2020, the report said.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Egypt should continue implementing structural reforms<\/strong> \u201cto catalyze private sector development and enhance domestic resource mobilization,\u201d in order to maintain a long term growth rate supported by more than domestic consumption, the bank concluded<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Egypt\u2019s economy will be back near its pre-pandemic growth rate in 2022, coming in at 4.9% compared to the 5.6% recorded in 2019, according to estimates in the African Development Bank\u2019s (AfDB) 2021 Economic Outlook report (pdf). While our economy grew at a 3.6% clip last year \u201cdespite the relatively severe health impact of the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":560826,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9983],"tags":[7098,1376,107,7106,104,72,9982],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-560825","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-macro","tag-africa","tag-african-development-bank","tag-covid-19","tag-debt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-macro","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"3fd136c3-bbdd-4838-8e29-2717a1ff5eea","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/3\/200.jpeg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[560820],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Egypt will be back near pre-pandemic growth rates by next year \u2013AfDB - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/15\/egypt-will-be-back-near-pre-pandemic-growth-rates-by-next-year-afdb\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Egypt will be back near pre-pandemic growth rates by next year \u2013AfDB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Egypt\u2019s economy will be back near its pre-pandemic growth rate in 2022, coming in at 4.9% compared to the 5.6% recorded in 2019, according to estimates in the African Development Bank\u2019s (AfDB) 2021 Economic Outlook report (pdf). While our economy grew at a 3.6% clip last year \u201cdespite the relatively severe health impact of the [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/15\/egypt-will-be-back-near-pre-pandemic-growth-rates-by-next-year-afdb\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EnterpriseAM Egypt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-03-15T05:35:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/3\/200.jpeg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/15\/egypt-will-be-back-near-pre-pandemic-growth-rates-by-next-year-afdb\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/15\/egypt-will-be-back-near-pre-pandemic-growth-rates-by-next-year-afdb\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"enterpriseam admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d\"},\"headline\":\"Egypt will be back near pre-pandemic growth rates by next year \u2013AfDB\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-03-15T05:35:05+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/15\/egypt-will-be-back-near-pre-pandemic-growth-rates-by-next-year-afdb\/\"},\"wordCount\":469,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/15\/egypt-will-be-back-near-pre-pandemic-growth-rates-by-next-year-afdb\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/3\/200.jpeg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\",\"keywords\":[\"Africa\",\"African Development Bank\",\"covid-19\",\"debt\",\"economy\",\"EnterpriseAM\",\"MACRO\"],\"articleSection\":[\"MACRO\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/15\/egypt-will-be-back-near-pre-pandemic-growth-rates-by-next-year-afdb\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/15\/egypt-will-be-back-near-pre-pandemic-growth-rates-by-next-year-afdb\/\",\"name\":\"Egypt will be back near pre-pandemic growth rates by next year \u2013AfDB - 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In its latest MENA economic update,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/10\/203.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":564559,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/02\/14\/egypt-skated-past-covid-19-but-now-needs-to-double-down-on-deep-reforms-iif\/","url_meta":{"origin":560825,"position":1},"title":"Egypt skated past covid-19, but now needs to double down on \u201cdeep\u201d reforms \u2013IIF","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"14 February 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt weathered the worst of the pandemic as the only MENA country to see economic output contract last year, but authorities need to push on with \u201cdeep\u201d structural reforms to keep the momentum going in the long run, the Institute of International Finance said in a report cited by Gulf\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;SPEED ROUND: MACRO&quot;","block_context":{"text":"SPEED ROUND: MACRO","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round-macro\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/2\/446.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":565373,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/04\/05\/brace-yourself-for-record-but-uneven-global-growth-this-year\/","url_meta":{"origin":560825,"position":2},"title":"Brace yourself for record (but uneven) global growth this year","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"5 April 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"World economy to face uneven growth post-pandemic despite a speedy recovery, says Bloomberg: The global economy, on average, is on pace for 2021 to register its fastest growth rate in over half a century, but it could take a while for some countries to join a post-pandemic charge which the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;THE MACRO PICTURE&quot;","block_context":{"text":"THE MACRO PICTURE","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/the-macro-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/4\/340.jpeg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":566196,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/02\/are-we-there-yet\/","url_meta":{"origin":560825,"position":3},"title":"Are we there yet?","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"2 June 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Egypt is expected to (almost) match its pre-pandemic growth level in this final quarter of the state\u2019s current fiscal year. 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