{"id":560789,"date":"2021-03-14T04:23:33","date_gmt":"2021-03-14T04:23:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/14\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-interest-rates-on-hold-this-thursday\/"},"modified":"2021-03-14T04:23:33","modified_gmt":"2021-03-14T04:23:33","slug":"enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-interest-rates-on-hold-this-thursday","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/14\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-interest-rates-on-hold-this-thursday\/","title":{"rendered":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave interest rates on hold this Thursday"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave interest rates on hold this Thursday:<\/strong> Rising global commodity prices and a pick-up in US treasury yields will likely mean that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave interest rates unchanged when its Monetary Policy Committee meets this Thursday, according to an Enterprise poll. All 12 analysts and economists surveyed last week expect the central bank to play it safe and leave rates on hold ahead of a possible pickup in inflation and renewed volatility in emerging-market flows.<\/p>\n

Where rates stand currently:<\/strong> The CBE\u2019s overnight deposit rate is at 8.25% and the lending rate is 9.25%, while the main operation and discount rates are at 8.75%. The central bank slashed rates by 400 bps last year, including an emergency 300-bps cut in March<\/a> to protect the economy from the fallout from covid-19, and two 50-bps cuts in September<\/a> and November<\/a>.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s weighing on policymakers right now?<\/strong><\/p>\n

#1- <\/strong>The commodities boom<\/a><\/strong>:<\/strong> There are concerns that Egypt\u2019s status as a net importer (particularly of key commodities such as wheat and oil) means that the recent surge in global commodity prices \u2014 particularly in metals, energy and food \u2014 could stimulate a pickup in domestic inflation. So far, headline annual inflation has remained muted despite the year-long rally that has taken place globally. Price growth ticked up only marginally in February, reaching 4.5%<\/a> from 4.3% in January \u2014 still short of the lower bound of the central bank\u2019s 7% (\u00b1 2%) target range. And local food prices have remained untouched by what has been happening in the global markets, which last month saw prices rise to the highest level in almost seven years<\/a>.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not just global forces threatening to push up inflation:<\/strong> Seasonal factors including Ramadan and the beginning of the next school semester could put upward pressure on prices in the weeks ahead, said Mona Bedeir, chief economist at Prime Holding.<\/p>\n

Analysts are expecting only a moderate increase in the months ahead:<\/strong> Analysts so far don\u2019t foresee inflation overshooting the central bank\u2019s target range. Renaissance Capital\u2019s Yvonne Mhango sees inflation stabilizing at 5%, Arqaam Capital\u2019s Noaman Kalid thinks inflation will average 6-7% through 2021, EFG Hermes\u2019 Mohamed Abu Basha is forecasting 6%, while Pharos\u2019 Radwa El Swaify is penciling in a sustained rise in the headline rate averaging 7% until the fourth quarter, when it might begin to back off.<\/p>\n

Even so, the CBE will likely tread carefully:<\/strong> \u201cWith the stability of food commodity prices on a monthly basis after the decline that they witnessed during the past two months, which coincided with a significant increase in international commodity prices as well as the increase in oil prices, we expect the central bank to maintain interest rates,\u201d said Beltone Financial\u2019s Alia Mamdouh.<\/p>\n

#2- The <\/strong>uptick in US treasury yields<\/a><\/strong> this year has dented the rally in emerging markets, which in January lifted EM stocks to record highs<\/a>. EMs saw daily outflows for the first time since October earlier this month as investors dumped risk assets and commentators raised the spectre of a repeat of 2013\u2019s so-called Taper Tantrum<\/a>.<\/p>\n

This is going to play into the central bank\u2019s thinking when it meets this week: <\/strong>\u201cWhile inflation figures support a 25-50 bps rate cut, the rise in US treasury yields and the risk for EM portfolio exits will prompt the MPC to keep rates unchanged,\u201d said Pharos\u2019 El Swaify.<\/p>\n

Egypt has been reliant on foreign portfolio inflows for hard currency<\/strong> after the collapse of tourism revenues at the hands of the pandemic and low export volumes, HC Securities Monette Doss told us. \u201cWith treasury yield hikes in the USA as well as different emerging markets such as Turkey, we believe that the CBE has limited room to undertake further interest rate cuts in its upcoming meeting,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

The Egypt carry trade remains competitive:<\/strong> Real yields on EGP-denominated one-year bills currently stand at 5.1%, more than 300-bps higher than the return offered by EM competitor Turkey, Doss said.<\/p>\n

The central bank will likely remain cautious in the coming months:<\/strong> \u201cThe recent acceleration in global commodity prices, especially oil and food prices, in addition to seasonal factors, leads us to believe that the easing cycle is nearing its end and no further reduction is expected before the second half of 2021,\u201d Bedeir told us.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave interest rates on hold this Thursday: Rising global commodity prices and a pick-up in US treasury yields will likely mean that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave interest rates unchanged when its Monetary Policy Committee meets this Thursday, according to an Enterprise poll. All 12 analysts and economists […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":560790,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7359],"tags":[82,2082,271,317,115,611,72,182,349,7358],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-560789","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-poll","tag-bonds","tag-carry-trade","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-commodities","tag-emerging-markets","tag-enterprise-poll","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-poll","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"4e93cbb9-79ef-4b1d-807b-d74d1637b427","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/3\/183.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[560784],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave interest rates on hold this Thursday - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/03\/14\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-interest-rates-on-hold-this-thursday\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave interest rates on hold this Thursday\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave interest rates on hold this Thursday: Rising global commodity prices and a pick-up in US treasury yields will likely mean that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave interest rates unchanged when its Monetary Policy Committee meets this Thursday, according to an Enterprise poll. 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Citing a recent drop in inflation, the economists and analysts\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":606531,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2023\/09\/18\/cbe-to-leave-interest-rates-unchanged-in-september-poll\/","url_meta":{"origin":560789,"position":3},"title":"CBE to leave interest rates unchanged in September -poll","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"18 September 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"All seven analysts surveyed by Enterprise see the CBE holding rates on Thursday","rel":"","context":"In "POLL"","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2023\/6\/908.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":573592,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2020\/08\/11\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-leave-rates-on-hold-in-august-2020\/","url_meta":{"origin":560789,"position":4},"title":"Enterprise Poll: Central Bank of Egypt to leave rates on hold in August 2020","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"11 August 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE likely to leave rates on hold when it meets this Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to an Enterprise poll. Nine of 10 analysts surveyed expect the bank to keep\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2020\/8\/76.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":621549,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2018\/11\/12\/egypts-central-bank-to-hold-key-rates-on-thursday\/","url_meta":{"origin":560789,"position":5},"title":"Egypt\u2019s central bank to hold key rates on Thursday","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"12 November 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"EXCLUSIVE- Enterprise poll of economists sees CBE leaving interest rates on hold: The central bank is expected to leave its key interest rates on hold when its monetary policy committee meets on Thursday, an Enterprise poll of economists and research houses found. Survey participants expect the CBE will leave its\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/internal\/536550.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/560789","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=560789"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/560789\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/560784"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/560790"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=560789"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=560789"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=560789"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=560789"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=560789"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}