{"id":559643,"date":"2021-01-31T04:08:09","date_gmt":"2021-01-31T04:08:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/31\/keep-it-steady\/"},"modified":"2021-01-31T04:08:09","modified_gmt":"2021-01-31T04:08:09","slug":"keep-it-steady","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/31\/keep-it-steady\/","title":{"rendered":"Keep it steady"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a> ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE expected to leave interest rates on hold in its first meeting of <\/strong>2021:<\/strong> Eleven out of 12 economists and analysts surveyed by Enterprise expect the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE)\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave rates unchanged when it meets this Thursday, 4 February. Still, most expect the CBE to resume its easing cycle in the coming months with a potential small cut.<\/p>\n

Where rates stand currently:<\/strong> The CBE\u2019s overnight deposit rate is now at 8.25% and the lending rate is 9.25%, while the main operation and discount rates are now at 8.75%. Rates have been left on hold since last November, when the MPC made a surprise 50 bps cut<\/a>, following an earlier 50 bps cut in September<\/a>. With the record 300 bps emergency cut<\/a>the MPC enacted in March 2020 to protect the economy from the fallout from covid-19, the central bank cut by a total 400 bps in 2020.<\/p>\n

The sole dissenting voice: Pharos head of research Radwa El Swaify, who forecasts a possible 50 bps cut<\/strong> this month.<\/strong> El Swaify, who was one of only two analysts to correctly call<\/a> November\u2019s 50 bps cut, expects the CBE to try and get ahead of the coming wave of inflation, which Pharos forecasts coming in at 5.5% this month and rising to 6.9% in February. \u201cThis will support the fiscal budget and boost trade and economic growth at the beginning of the year,\u201d Swaify tells Enterprise. Inflation is then expected to end the third quarter at 7.5%, and drop down slightly to 7.0% by the end of the year.<\/p>\n

No pressing need for more cuts\u2026<\/strong> Real interest rates are within the CBE\u2019s target range of 2-3%, said EFG Hermes\u2019 Head of Macroeconomic Research Mohamed Abu Basha, and the 400 bps cuts enacted in 2020 should prove sufficient for now. Likewise, CI Capital\u2019s Sara Saada thinks the CBE has been conservative with its liquidity injections this month, causing a slight increase in interest rates, and is likely to continue its conservative approach and hold off on making any cuts this next meeting considering the meagre growth in money supply since November.<\/p>\n

Especially with inflation where the CBE wants it:<\/strong> With its amended target range of 7% (+\/-2) reflecting the CBE\u2019s shift towards propping up investment activity, a steady interest rate is just what the market needs right now, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development lead economist Bassem Kamar tells us. With that in mind, both Kamar and Mubasher International\u2019s Mohamed Magdy expect the MPC to hold off on making further cuts until the second half of the year.<\/p>\n

\u2026Despite mounting pressures:<\/strong> \u201cWe perceive upward interest rate pressures as was manifested in rising yields and relatively weaker coverage in the last government T-bill and T-bond auctions,\u201d said HC Securities\u2019 Monette Doss. Decreased banking sector liquidity, as well as global economic uncertainty and the continued volatility of sectors such as tourism and exports in Egypt also pose interest rate pressures.<\/p>\n

\u2026 And the need for affordable borrowing:<\/strong> Sigma Capital\u2019s Abu Bakr Imam believes cuts are necessary to allow the government to borrow at lower costs and carry out planned projects to achieve targeted growth levels, but still expects the CBE will hold off on further monetary easing until later in the year. Suez Canal Bank\u2019s Mohamed Abdel Aal, on the other hand, thinks growth can be achieved with a steady increase in public spending on projects and consumer spending on goods and services, without the need for more cuts at the moment.<\/p>\n

But larger cuts could be necessary if inflation and growth fall below forecasts:<\/strong> \u201cThe CBE may resume monetary easing at a more aggressive pace if inflation rates fall beneath 6%,\u201d said Mubasher\u2019s Magdy, or \u201cif GDP growth rates dropped significantly below the baseline forecast trajectory.\u201d<\/p>\n

A steady rate could also boost FX inflows<\/strong> by offering attractive yields to foreign investors, said Abdel Aal. This could be a priority for the CBE at the moment as Egyptian treasuries face higher competition from Turkey, which boosted its policy rates by 475 bps in November<\/a>, and by another 200 bps in December, putting its real return rates on level with Egypt\u2019s at 3.8%. Arqaam Capital\u2019s Noaman Khalid also points to the importance of attracting portfolio inflows as impetus for the MPC to hold off on rate cuts.<\/p>\n

Are we more likely to see a cut in March? <\/strong>Prime Securities\u2019 Mona Bedeir expects as much, penciling in a 50 bps in March and another 50 bps cut at some later point in the year. Nonetheless, \u201cthe CBE will be very cautious, given the external pressures that still weigh on the future exchange rate,\u201d and the possibility of its loose monetary stance turning inflationary, Bedeir predicts.<\/p>\n

Looking ahead: <\/strong>El Swaify sees room for another potential 50-75 bps cut in October, totaling cuts of 100-125 bps this year, while Magdy says we can expect a 50 bps cut at some point before the end of the fiscal year. Bedeir says markets are pricing in a total of 100 bps of cuts throughout 2021, which Khalid thinks will be concentrated in 2Q2021 or the back half of the year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE expected to leave interest rates on hold in its first meeting of 2021: Eleven out of 12 economists and analysts surveyed by Enterprise expect the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE)\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave rates unchanged when it meets this Thursday, 4 February. Still, most expect the CBE to resume […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":559644,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7359],"tags":[136,84,611,72,811,349,3694,724,3695,1257,7358,3073,3163,1164],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-559643","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-poll","tag-ci-capital","tag-efg-hermes","tag-enterprise-poll","tag-enterpriseam","tag-hc-securities","tag-interest-rates","tag-mohamed-abu-basha","tag-monetary-policy","tag-monette-doss","tag-mubasher-capital-holding","tag-poll","tag-radwa-el-swaify","tag-sigma-capital","tag-suez-canal-bank","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"10cdf260-5685-4f60-8321-7490de035dbf","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/1\/363.jpg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[559637],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"\nKeep it steady - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/31\/keep-it-steady\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Keep it steady\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE expected to leave interest rates on hold in its first meeting of 2021: Eleven out of 12 economists and analysts surveyed by Enterprise expect the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE)\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave rates unchanged when it meets this Thursday, 4 February. 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Five of eight analysts and economists surveyed by Enterprise see the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) holding rates when it meets on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "POLL"","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2022\/6\/EGP-1600px1.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":591925,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2019\/12\/22\/enterprise-poll-central-bank-of-egypt-to-keep-rates-on-hold-in-final-meeting-of-2019\/","url_meta":{"origin":559643,"position":4},"title":"Enterprise poll: Central Bank of Egypt to keep rates on hold in final meeting of 2019","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"22 December 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"SURVEY- Economists expect CBE to keep rates on hold in final meeting of 2019: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will leave interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets this Thursday, according to seven of 10 economists polled by Enterprise. This is the lowest rate of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Speed Round"","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/12\/CBE-1600px.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":562943,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/06\/13\/enterprise-poll-cbe-to-leave-rates-on-hold-at-upcoming-meeting-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":559643,"position":5},"title":"ENTERPRISE POLL- CBE to leave rates on hold at upcoming meeting","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"13 June 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"ENTERPRISE POLL- The CBE expected to leave rates on hold: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will likely leave interest rates on hold when its Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday, according to an Enterprise poll. All 11 analysts and economists we surveyed expect the central bank to stick to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "POLL"","block_context":{"text":"POLL","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/poll\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/6\/165.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/559643","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=559643"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/559643\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/559637"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/559644"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=559643"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=559643"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=559643"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=559643"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=559643"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}