{"id":559482,"date":"2021-01-24T03:39:05","date_gmt":"2021-01-24T03:39:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/24\/slow-tourism-recovery-will-weigh-on-gdp-this-year-but-well-bounce-back\/"},"modified":"2021-01-24T03:39:05","modified_gmt":"2021-01-24T03:39:05","slug":"slow-tourism-recovery-will-weigh-on-gdp-this-year-but-well-bounce-back","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/24\/slow-tourism-recovery-will-weigh-on-gdp-this-year-but-well-bounce-back\/","title":{"rendered":"Slow tourism recovery will weigh on GDP this year, but we\u2019ll bounce back"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a class=\"content-anchor\" id=\"tldr-story-04\"><\/a> <strong>Egypt\u2019s economy will grow 2.4% this fiscal year \u201camid sluggish global tourism<\/strong><strong> recovery and weak domestic demand,\u201d but will accelerate to 4.1% in FY2022-2023<\/strong>, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said in its January report. The forecast for the current fiscal year is below the lower end of the Finance Ministry\u2019s recently updated forecast, which targets a range of <a href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\/news\/story\/31d82a35-c9b5-4ce5-afa9-37d48c7bfacb\">2.8-4%<\/a>. The EIU expects real GDP growth to rise over the next three fiscal years, peaking at 5.7% in FY2024-2025 before cooling off slightly to 5.2% in FY2025-2026.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The caveat: The recovery in vital sectors such as tourism \u2014<\/strong> accounts for 9.5% of employment and 5.5% of GDP <strong>\u2014<\/strong> <strong>will \u201cdepend heavily\u201d on how consumer demand in the EU recovers<\/strong> and a speedy vaccination program. The EIU expects a large-scale rollout of vaccines around the world in 2Q2021 in developed economies, while the rollout of vaccines \u201cat scale\u201d in middle-income and emerging economies is unlikely to happen before 2022. This pace suggests the global \u201cmass coverage\u201d milestone will only be hit by the end of the year.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The government will likely keep in place fiscal and monetary support measures for the tourism sector while withdrawing it from other sectors<\/strong> as the pandemic begins to taper off in 2H2021, the report predicts. While state coffers \u201cwill be tested\u201d in their ability to roll out more relief after having raised the minimum wage and pensions, as well as hiking the exemption threshold for income taxes, other \u201cpandemic-related tax-relief measures and tariff cuts\u201d will be rolled back to rebuild public finances, the report says.<\/p>\n<p><strong>OTHER INDICATORS: <\/strong>The EIU sees Egypt\u2019s <strong>fiscal deficit<\/strong> widening to 8.5% of GDP this fiscal year, sees <strong>inflation<\/strong> \u201csubdued\u201d this year at about 5.9%, and sees <strong>the EGP strengthening<\/strong> by 2025, although it will be susceptible to \u201cbouts of volatility\u201d this year from \u201cnegative sentiment towards emerging economies in global financial markets, or to a weakening of the current-account position.\u201d The EIU expects the EGP to weaken slightly in FY2021-2022 before the FX rate settles at EGP 15.52 \/ USD 1 in FY2024-2025.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Egypt\u2019s economy will grow 2.4% this fiscal year \u201camid sluggish global tourism recovery and weak domestic demand,\u201d but will accelerate to 4.1% in FY2022-2023, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said in its January report. The forecast for the current fiscal year is below the lower end of the Finance Ministry\u2019s recently updated forecast, which targets [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":559483,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9947],"tags":[271,104,72,182,9946,238],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-559482","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-outlook","tag-central-bank-of-egypt","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam","tag-inflation","tag-outlook","tag-tourism","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"31d275e4-0abe-49fb-977b-cd96ee949436","is_powered_by":true,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2021\/1\/281.jpeg","photo_position":"above","related_issue":[559472],"teaser":"","voice_url":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Slow tourism recovery will weigh on GDP this year, but we\u2019ll bounce back - EnterpriseAM Egypt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/24\/slow-tourism-recovery-will-weigh-on-gdp-this-year-but-well-bounce-back\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Slow tourism recovery will weigh on GDP this year, but we\u2019ll bounce back\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Egypt\u2019s economy will grow 2.4% this fiscal year \u201camid sluggish global tourism recovery and weak domestic demand,\u201d but will accelerate to 4.1% in FY2022-2023, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said in its January report. The forecast for the current fiscal year is below the lower end of the Finance Ministry\u2019s recently updated forecast, which targets [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/24\/slow-tourism-recovery-will-weigh-on-gdp-this-year-but-well-bounce-back\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"EnterpriseAM Egypt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-01-24T03:39:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/1\/281.jpeg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/24\/slow-tourism-recovery-will-weigh-on-gdp-this-year-but-well-bounce-back\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/24\/slow-tourism-recovery-will-weigh-on-gdp-this-year-but-well-bounce-back\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"enterpriseam admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d\"},\"headline\":\"Slow tourism recovery will weigh on GDP this year, but we\u2019ll bounce back\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-01-24T03:39:05+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/24\/slow-tourism-recovery-will-weigh-on-gdp-this-year-but-well-bounce-back\/\"},\"wordCount\":349,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/24\/slow-tourism-recovery-will-weigh-on-gdp-this-year-but-well-bounce-back\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2021\/1\/281.jpeg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\",\"keywords\":[\"Central Bank of Egypt\",\"economy\",\"EnterpriseAM\",\"inflation\",\"OUTLOOK\",\"tourism\"],\"articleSection\":[\"OUTLOOK\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/24\/slow-tourism-recovery-will-weigh-on-gdp-this-year-but-well-bounce-back\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2021\/01\/24\/slow-tourism-recovery-will-weigh-on-gdp-this-year-but-well-bounce-back\/\",\"name\":\"Slow tourism recovery will weigh on GDP this year, but we\u2019ll bounce back - 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The forecast for the current fiscal year is much more modest than the government\u2019s targetof 6.0% outlined in the state budget.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Speed Round&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Speed Round","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/category\/speed-round\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2019\/9\/1476.png?fit=%2C&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":644574,"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/egypt\/2024\/09\/29\/ebrd-revises-egypts-gdp-growth-for-2025-upward\/","url_meta":{"origin":559482,"position":1},"title":"EBRD revises Egypt\u2019s GDP growth for 2025 upward","author":"enterpriseam admin","date":"29 September 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The EBRD now sees the country growing at a 4.5% clip in 2025","rel":"","context":"In 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